Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Rugby Saint II · 03-02-2021, 02:38 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

It's around 35% that end up making rosters. As you pointed out, the better the returning roster the more difficult it is for an incoming rookie to make that roster. For many that ends up being their only shot.

That's good info to have. Thanks for sharing.

gosaints1 · 03-02-2021, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

It's around 35% that end up making rosters. As you pointed out, the better the returning roster the more difficult it is for an incoming rookie to make that roster. For many that ends up being their only shot.

Where did you get that 35% number from? Is that descriptive of the starting 11 on each side of the ball? Top 51? Practice squad? Year to Year? Seriously, how did you arrive at that percentage?

Boston Saint · 03-02-2021, 05:50 PM

I have a hard time believing only 35 percent of guys drafted make rosters. There are 224 picks a year (a few extra for compensation picks). 35 percent of that is just over 78 guys, so let’s round to 80. I easily could be mistaken, but I would think more than 80 guys a draft class make a roster. That doesn’t even get you through round 3.

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

Where did you get that 35% number from? Is that descriptive of the starting 11 on each side of the ball? Top 51? Practice squad? Year to Year? Seriously, how did you arrive at that percentage?

It's a figure that has been given many times on the success of draft choices. I was confirming what SaintGnome was saying. He said the number was in the 30's. I've heard and read the same. I didn't calculate it on my own. To be honest, that may include undrafted free agents.

I have also heard it the other way around where 65% never have what is considered a successful career.

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

I have a hard time believing only 35 percent of guys drafted make rosters. There are 224 picks a year (a few extra for compensation picks). 35 percent of that is just over 78 guys, so let’s round to 80. I easily could be mistaken, but I would think more than 80 guys a draft class make a roster. That doesn’t even get you through round 3.

It probably includes UDFA's.

I know profootballreference.com had a metric that measured success of actual draft choices called "draft value" or something like that. Here's some numbers from a 20 year study ending in 2017.

10.5% average
12.3% good
6.8% great
1% legendary

That leaves 69.4% that were rated below that.

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 10:28 AM

There were at least 409 UFDA's last year. Combined with draft picks it would come out to around 650. 35% of that would be around 227, or a little over seven per team. Last year 246 rookies made NFL week one rosters.

That would make it 38% of rookies that were on 90 man rosters made it to the week one roster in 2020.

Here's an interesting chart. Only 34 UFDA's made rosters in 2020, way down from 78 UFDA's in 2013.

Rugby Saint II · 03-03-2021, 11:05 AM

We own the UDFA market. New Orleans is where people can make a name for themselves and Payton picks the player for the roster because of the fit not their draft position. The league knows that and New Orleans is a desired location.

Boston Saint · 03-03-2021, 01:10 PM

The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league.

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 01:31 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league.

It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long.

Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years.

Boston Saint · 03-03-2021, 01:36 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long.

Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years.

So you see my point about the numbers being...flexible depending on the parameters set?

View Poll Results: After three seasons, what grade do you give the Saints for the 2018 Draft Haul?
A	1	7.69%
B	3	23.08%
C	2	15.38%
D	5	38.46%
F	2	15.38%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

03-02-2021, 02:38 PM	#11
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,044	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido It's around 35% that end up making rosters. As you pointed out, the better the returning roster the more difficult it is for an incoming rookie to make that roster. For many that ends up being their only shot. That's good info to have. Thanks for sharing.

03-02-2021, 05:02 PM	#12
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido It's around 35% that end up making rosters. As you pointed out, the better the returning roster the more difficult it is for an incoming rookie to make that roster. For many that ends up being their only shot. Where did you get that 35% number from? Is that descriptive of the starting 11 on each side of the ball? Top 51? Practice squad? Year to Year? Seriously, how did you arrive at that percentage?
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-02-2021, 05:50 PM	#13
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire I have a hard time believing only 35 percent of guys drafted make rosters. There are 224 picks a year (a few extra for compensation picks). 35 percent of that is just over 78 guys, so let’s round to 80. I easily could be mistaken, but I would think more than 80 guys a draft class make a roster. That doesn’t even get you through round 3. gosaints1 likes this.

03-03-2021, 09:37 AM	#14
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,173	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 Where did you get that 35% number from? Is that descriptive of the starting 11 on each side of the ball? Top 51? Practice squad? Year to Year? Seriously, how did you arrive at that percentage? It's a figure that has been given many times on the success of draft choices. I was confirming what SaintGnome was saying. He said the number was in the 30's. I've heard and read the same. I didn't calculate it on my own. To be honest, that may include undrafted free agents. I have also heard it the other way around where 65% never have what is considered a successful career.

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03-03-2021, 09:51 AM	#15
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,173	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint I have a hard time believing only 35 percent of guys drafted make rosters. There are 224 picks a year (a few extra for compensation picks). 35 percent of that is just over 78 guys, so let’s round to 80. I easily could be mistaken, but I would think more than 80 guys a draft class make a roster. That doesn’t even get you through round 3. It probably includes UDFA's. I know profootballreference.com had a metric that measured success of actual draft choices called "draft value" or something like that. Here's some numbers from a 20 year study ending in 2017. 10.5% average 12.3% good 6.8% great 1% legendary That leaves 69.4% that were rated below that.

03-03-2021, 10:28 AM	#16
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,173	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire There were at least 409 UFDA's last year. Combined with draft picks it would come out to around 650. 35% of that would be around 227, or a little over seven per team. Last year 246 rookies made NFL week one rosters. That would make it 38% of rookies that were on 90 man rosters made it to the week one roster in 2020. Here's an interesting chart. Only 34 UFDA's made rosters in 2020, way down from 78 UFDA's in 2013. Rugby Saint II likes this.

03-03-2021, 11:05 AM	#17
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,044	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire We own the UDFA market. New Orleans is where people can make a name for themselves and Payton picks the player for the roster because of the fit not their draft position. The league knows that and New Orleans is a desired location.

03-03-2021, 01:10 PM	#18
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league.

03-03-2021, 01:31 PM	#19
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,173	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league. It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long. Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years. Boston Saint likes this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-03-2021, 01:36 PM	#20
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long. Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years. So you see my point about the numbers being...flexible depending on the parameters set? AsylumGuido likes this.