2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook

jeanpierre · 06-02-2021, 10:12 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Yes, the higher the pick the greater odds of that player becoming a success. The 14th pick in the draft stands greater odds of being a success than the 27th or the 30th (the draft positions given up to move up). We basically traded two high 2nd rounders for a pick in the first half of the 1st round. Sounds good to me. Just what I have proposed, Boston.

By the way, I don't get the liar bit.

This has been debunked more than once - The Saints and other teams have found success all over the draft board...

AsylumGuido · 06-02-2021, 11:54 AM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

This has been debunked more than once - The Saints and other teams have found success all over the draft board...

It has not been debunked. Sure, successful players can come from any position, but taken as a whole the higher picks on average have produced the greater chance of success. They are picked earlier for a reason.

Boston Saint · 06-02-2021, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

They are picked earlier for a reason.

I’m not trying to be argumentative here. What reason is this. Why is a player taken at 13 vs 28 vs 41 in your eyes?

AsylumGuido · 06-02-2021, 12:33 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

I’m not trying to be argumentative here. What reason is this. Why is a player taken at 13 vs 28 vs 41 in your eyes?

They are taken at the higher position because they are perceived to have a better chance at success. Is that always the case? No, of course not, but statistically speaking it is. Players taken in the first round have a success rate of 83%. Players selected in the second round have a success rate of 70%.

Does that mean the success rate of every 1st rounder is the same? Of course not. You would have to agree that players taken in the top 15 of the draft have a greater chance of success than those taken in the next 17 slots, no? That's only logical. Otherwise what would it matter what a team's picks were?

jeanpierre · 06-02-2021, 12:35 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

It has not been debunked. Sure, successful players can come from any position, but taken as a whole the higher picks on average have produced the greater chance of success. They are picked earlier for a reason.

Debunked.

AsylumGuido · 06-02-2021, 12:41 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Debunked.

In your mind, perhaps. Can you tell me honestly that you believe all players historically taken in the first round after the top 15 have just as high a probability of success as those taken in the top 15 slots?

jeanpierre · 06-02-2021, 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

In your mind, perhaps. Can you tell me honestly that you believe all players historically taken in the first round after the top 15 have just as high a probability of success as those taken in the top 15 slots?

Argument made, backed with cited proof, as I said - debunked...

AsylumGuido · 06-02-2021, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Argument made, backed with cited proof, as I said - debunked...

What cited proof? Some isolated one off incidents? What is your supposed "cited proof"? Is it statistically sound?

Sorry, JP, but it sounds to me like you are the one imbibing in wacky weed.

jeanpierre · 06-02-2021, 02:02 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

What cited proof? Some isolated one off incidents? What is your supposed "cited proof"? Is it statistically sound?

Sorry, JP, but it sounds to me like you are the one imbibing in wacky weed.

Seek medical help for Alzheimer's; it's been argued ad nauseam, even in last two weeks; can't keep breaking it down when you refused to admit you're wrong...

06-02-2021, 10:12 AM	#1
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Yes, the higher the pick the greater odds of that player becoming a success. The 14th pick in the draft stands greater odds of being a success than the 27th or the 30th (the draft positions given up to move up). We basically traded two high 2nd rounders for a pick in the first half of the 1st round. Sounds good to me. Just what I have proposed, Boston. By the way, I don't get the liar bit. This has been debunked more than once - The Saints and other teams have found success all over the draft board...

06-02-2021, 11:54 AM	#2
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by jeanpierre This has been debunked more than once - The Saints and other teams have found success all over the draft board... It has not been debunked. Sure, successful players can come from any position, but taken as a whole the higher picks on average have produced the greater chance of success. They are picked earlier for a reason.

06-02-2021, 12:05 PM	#3
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by AsylumGuido They are picked earlier for a reason. I’m not trying to be argumentative here. What reason is this. Why is a player taken at 13 vs 28 vs 41 in your eyes?

06-02-2021, 12:33 PM	#4
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by Boston Saint I’m not trying to be argumentative here. What reason is this. Why is a player taken at 13 vs 28 vs 41 in your eyes? They are taken at the higher position because they are perceived to have a better chance at success. Is that always the case? No, of course not, but statistically speaking it is. Players taken in the first round have a success rate of 83%. Players selected in the second round have a success rate of 70%. Does that mean the success rate of every 1st rounder is the same? Of course not. You would have to agree that players taken in the top 15 of the draft have a greater chance of success than those taken in the next 17 slots, no? That's only logical. Otherwise what would it matter what a team's picks were?
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

06-02-2021, 12:35 PM	#5
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by AsylumGuido It has not been debunked. Sure, successful players can come from any position, but taken as a whole the higher picks on average have produced the greater chance of success. They are picked earlier for a reason. Debunked.

06-02-2021, 12:41 PM	#6
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by jeanpierre Debunked. In your mind, perhaps. Can you tell me honestly that you believe all players historically taken in the first round after the top 15 have just as high a probability of success as those taken in the top 15 slots?

06-02-2021, 12:58 PM	#7
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by AsylumGuido In your mind, perhaps. Can you tell me honestly that you believe all players historically taken in the first round after the top 15 have just as high a probability of success as those taken in the top 15 slots? Argument made, backed with cited proof, as I said - debunked...

06-02-2021, 01:04 PM	#8
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,622	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by jeanpierre Argument made, backed with cited proof, as I said - debunked... What cited proof? Some isolated one off incidents? What is your supposed "cited proof"? Is it statistically sound? Sorry, JP, but it sounds to me like you are the one imbibing in wacky weed.

06-02-2021, 02:02 PM	#9
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: 2021 New Orleans Saints: Roster Outlook Originally Posted by AsylumGuido What cited proof? Some isolated one off incidents? What is your supposed "cited proof"? Is it statistically sound? Sorry, JP, but it sounds to me like you are the one imbibing in wacky weed. Seek medical help for Alzheimer's; it's been argued ad nauseam, even in last two weeks; can't keep breaking it down when you refused to admit you're wrong...

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