BakoSaint

Coaching vacancies are unpredictable. There could be a bidding war next year where we get a lot of compensation or there could be scant vacancies and nobody is willing to trade much and offer an appealing salary and roster to Sean. It could be Reid and Belichick both retire, McCarthy has a mediocre season and the Dallas job opens up, and many other coaches on the hot seat are let go. Or it could be that many of the coaches on the hot seat improve enough to buy another year on the job, the coaches who have losing seasons are First year coaches who get a second year to prove or experienced coaches with just one off year, and few good vacancies materialize. The dolphins will likely give their new coach 2-3 years to prove himself. Dallas may want Payton, but maybe McCarthy will have a good year and get an extension. Payton would be most valuable to a team that already has a good young QB and needs a guru to improve their offense and can give up a 1st rounder because they can replace the pick in free agency with a good cap position.

Other things could happen to change Paytons value. New offensive styles setting the league on fire might reduce his value. He could have some scandal. If Dennis Allen does too good with the offense, it could make Payton look replaceable, or even unwilling to change with the times, though I will take it. Or offenses could trend away from running qbs and toward paytons style of offense and two young pro style qbs could face off in the superbowl with experienced coaches, making Payton look like the missing piece to other teams with young qbs.

neugey

I was thinking earlier this week, if you told people Jon Gruden and Sean Payton would both be out of the league by next year, no one would believe you.