Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers

AsylumGuido · 09-28-2022, 08:18 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Lets say there is a QB we like who is expected to go #1 overall. If we had the #1 overall pick we could just take him. If we had a top 5 pick we could trade up. What sort of package would you propose that Loomis offer for the #1 overall pick that doesnt include any current year 1st rounders? What is the precedent that such a trade would be accepted? What if we want a player who will go 5th or 10th in the 1st? How much will we have to give up with no 1st rounder at all to offer? Seems like the cost will be exorbitant? Trading future picks is like taking out a loan with high interest. Now you are talking about taking out one high interest loan to pay another.

Of course we don't move up to #1. Even if we still had our2023 1st rounder we would be hard pressed moving up from #32. But, we can still move into the 1st round somewhere.

That said, we didn't waste our 2023 1st. We used it to get arguably the best rookie WR in the draft and what could end up being our starting LT for the next decade. Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.

papz · 09-28-2022, 08:25 AM

Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

When this finally catches up to us, it's going to hit like a ton of bricks.

AsylumGuido · 09-28-2022, 08:35 AM

Originally Posted by papz

Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

When this finally catches up to us, it's going to hit like a ton of bricks.

That's exactly what people were saying ten years ago. Teams across the league are going to the same cap management strategy as the Saints. You borrow from Peter when the amount leveraged is a smaller percentage of the total cap to pay Paul and remain competitive. As long as the cap numbers keep skyrocketing it will remain a very sound strategy. And given the record revenues annually in the NFL there's little reason to believe the growth won't continue beyond the term of the newest CBA and broadcast contracts.

papz · 09-28-2022, 09:17 AM

Plenty of teams are using that strategy now. It definitely works... until it doesn't. Eventually you're going to need a reset and when that does happen, hopefully we'll have the draft picks to use to capitalize on it.

iceshack149 · 09-28-2022, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by papz

Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

When this finally catches up to us, it's going to hit like a ton of bricks.

I'm not sure if the ton of bricks has hit us yet but I've been seeing a few precursory rocks dropping here and there.

Boston Saint · 09-28-2022, 10:22 AM

Seems to me two different issues are being conflated; the hazards of burrowing against picks in future drafts and the hazards of burrowing against the future salary cap. When debating about being able to get back into the first round next year the rise of future salary caps really isn’t part of the discussion.

AsylumGuido · 09-28-2022, 11:17 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Seems to me two different issues are being conflated; the hazards of burrowing against picks in future drafts and the hazards of burrowing against the future salary cap. When debating about being able to get back into the first round next year the rise of future salary caps really isn’t part of the discussion.

It actually does come into play to a small degree. As the cap rises each year so does the slotted rate associated with that pick. The salary associated with the #5 overall pick will be incrementally higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. Not that big of a deal, but there is a degree of correlation.

Boston Saint · 09-28-2022, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

It actually does come into play to a small degree. As the cap rises each year so does the slotted rate associated with that pick. The salary associated with the #5 overall pick will be incrementally higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. Not that big of a deal, but there is a degree of correlation.

To an infinitesimal degree perhaps. Nothing that would influence a trade. The only real impact would be if a player was involved in the trade to move back into the first next year.

mapcow · 09-29-2022, 10:40 AM

Highghgh Hopes ....yall got high___ hopes; Pie in the sky.. kinda Highhh Hopes....

Frank Sinatra and Eddie Hodges - "High Hopes" from A Hole In The Head (1959) - YouTube

Boston Saint · 09-29-2022, 11:22 AM

Originally Posted by mapcow

Highghgh Hopes ....yall got high___ hopes; Pie in the sky.. kinda Highhh Hopes....

Frank Sinatra and Eddie Hodges - "High Hopes" from A Hole In The Head (1959) - YouTube

It could be a Fantastic Voyage! RIP Coolio

YouTube

09-28-2022, 08:18 AM	#71
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers Originally Posted by BakoSaint Lets say there is a QB we like who is expected to go #1 overall. If we had the #1 overall pick we could just take him. If we had a top 5 pick we could trade up. What sort of package would you propose that Loomis offer for the #1 overall pick that doesnt include any current year 1st rounders? What is the precedent that such a trade would be accepted? What if we want a player who will go 5th or 10th in the 1st? How much will we have to give up with no 1st rounder at all to offer? Seems like the cost will be exorbitant? Trading future picks is like taking out a loan with high interest. Now you are talking about taking out one high interest loan to pay another. Of course we don't move up to #1. Even if we still had our2023 1st rounder we would be hard pressed moving up from #32. But, we can still move into the 1st round somewhere. That said, we didn't waste our 2023 1st. We used it to get arguably the best rookie WR in the draft and what could end up being our starting LT for the next decade. Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.

09-28-2022, 08:25 AM	#72
papz Problem? Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 11,698	Re: Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers Robbing Peter to pay Paul. When this finally catches up to us, it's going to hit like a ton of bricks.

09-28-2022, 08:35 AM	#73
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers Originally Posted by papz Robbing Peter to pay Paul. When this finally catches up to us, it's going to hit like a ton of bricks. That's exactly what people were saying ten years ago. Teams across the league are going to the same cap management strategy as the Saints. You borrow from Peter when the amount leveraged is a smaller percentage of the total cap to pay Paul and remain competitive. As long as the cap numbers keep skyrocketing it will remain a very sound strategy. And given the record revenues annually in the NFL there's little reason to believe the growth won't continue beyond the term of the newest CBA and broadcast contracts.

09-28-2022, 09:17 AM	#74
papz Problem? Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: New Orleans Posts: 11,698	Re: Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers Plenty of teams are using that strategy now. It definitely works... until it doesn't. Eventually you're going to need a reset and when that does happen, hopefully we'll have the draft picks to use to capitalize on it.

09-28-2022, 09:57 AM	#75
iceshack149 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Fairbanks, AK Posts: 4,099 Blog Entries: 1	Re: Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers Originally Posted by papz Robbing Peter to pay Paul. When this finally catches up to us, it's going to hit like a ton of bricks. I'm not sure if the ton of bricks has hit us yet but I've been seeing a few precursory rocks dropping here and there.

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09-28-2022, 10:22 AM	#76
Boston Saint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,878	Re: Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers Seems to me two different issues are being conflated; the hazards of burrowing against picks in future drafts and the hazards of burrowing against the future salary cap. When debating about being able to get back into the first round next year the rise of future salary caps really isn’t part of the discussion.

09-28-2022, 11:17 AM	#77
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers Originally Posted by Boston Saint Seems to me two different issues are being conflated; the hazards of burrowing against picks in future drafts and the hazards of burrowing against the future salary cap. When debating about being able to get back into the first round next year the rise of future salary caps really isn’t part of the discussion. It actually does come into play to a small degree. As the cap rises each year so does the slotted rate associated with that pick. The salary associated with the #5 overall pick will be incrementally higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. Not that big of a deal, but there is a degree of correlation.

09-28-2022, 11:28 AM	#78
Boston Saint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,878	Re: Observations from the Saints Loss at Panthers Originally Posted by AsylumGuido It actually does come into play to a small degree. As the cap rises each year so does the slotted rate associated with that pick. The salary associated with the #5 overall pick will be incrementally higher in 2023 than it was in 2022. Not that big of a deal, but there is a degree of correlation. To an infinitesimal degree perhaps. Nothing that would influence a trade. The only real impact would be if a player was involved in the trade to move back into the first next year. AsylumGuido likes this.