Just an update here. I'm not sure who all watched the Broncos/Bills game this past week, but our friend Lutz missed another extra point and then missed the short FG to win the game, but was given a second chance due to the Bills having 12 men on the field. He made the second attempt five yards closer with the added comfort of the practice kick.

On the missed game-winner before the do-over: I absolutely hated how they managed the clock there and IMO added more pressure to the kick than there should have been. They should have been throwing an incomplete pass/spike on 3rd down to stop the clock. Payton wanted to bring the clock all the way down and not give them the ball back and it almost cost them the game. Doing that makes the odds of the kicker missing the kick much higher as the entire squad is rushing to get the snap and the kick off. I really didn't like how they did that. They should have had a dead ball, had a pressure-free kick, and given the ball back to the Bills with less than 20 seconds and no time-outs. Your odds of making the kick and winning the game are higher in that scenario than the one that played out. What they did only lowered their chances of winning and almost cost them the game IMO.

You are missing one thing. Rushing the kicking team also rushed the defense. In the end, rushing the defense gave Lutz 2 chances to make the kick and improved their chances of winning the game. Had Lutz made the initial attempt, I believe Denver could have declined the 12 man penalty and won. Since Denver missed the kick, Denver accepted the 12 man. Rushing the defense worked. It could be a partial excuse for Lutz’s miss, but I am ok with the coaching decision from Payton. It may increase the chance Lutz misses but that is probably outweighed by taking time off the clock and increasing the chances of a Bill penalty. I guess it could have increased the chance of. Denver penalty too which the Bills could accept or decline depending on whether Denver makes the kick, but if Buffalo accepts a Denver penalty Lutz would get an unrushed but farther kick and the time would still come off the clock.

You basically argued against yourself. In addition, it's far more likely to have an offensive penalty in that situation than a defensive one. I think if they had an offensive penalty, the game would be over. There would be a 10-second runoff and the game also ends with an offensive penalty at 00 time, which makes doing that kick even more risky. There would be no redo like you stated.

Do you have any stats backing an offensive penalty being more likely? I feel like in that situation the offense can known what its going to do and prepare while the defense has react. Also not all offensive penalties result in a run off, it would probably have to be a pre-snap penalty.

With Sean Payton's bad luck on last-second drives like the Minnesota miracle, I can't blame him for wanting to run all the time off the clock.