Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better

hitta · 11-16-2023, 08:14 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

You are missing one thing. Rushing the kicking team also rushed the defense. In the end, rushing the defense gave Lutz 2 chances to make the kick and improved their chances of winning the game. Had Lutz made the initial attempt, I believe Denver could have declined the 12 man penalty and won. Since Denver missed the kick, Denver accepted the 12 man. Rushing the defense worked. It could be a partial excuse for Lutz’s miss, but I am ok with the coaching decision from Payton. It may increase the chance Lutz misses but that is probably outweighed by taking time off the clock and increasing the chances of a Bill penalty. I guess it could have increased the chance of. Denver penalty too which the Bills could accept or decline depending on whether Denver makes the kick, but if Buffalo accepts a Denver penalty Lutz would get an unrushed but farther kick and the time would still come off the clock.

You basically argued against yourself. In addition, it's far more likely to have an offensive penalty in that situation than a defensive one. I think if they had an offensive penalty, the game would be over. There would be a 10-second runoff and the game also ends with an offensive penalty at 00 time, which makes doing that kick even more risky. There would be no redo like you stated.

BakoSaint · 11-16-2023, 09:21 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

You basically argued against yourself. In addition, it's far more likely to have an offensive penalty in that situation than a defensive one. I think if they had an offensive penalty, the game would be over. There would be a 10-second runoff and the game also ends with an offensive penalty at 00 time, which makes doing that kick even more risky. There would be no redo like you stated.

Do you have any stats backing an offensive penalty being more likely? I feel like in that situation the offense can known what its going to do and prepare while the defense has react. Also not all offensive penalties result in a run off, it would probably have to be a pre-snap penalty.

With Sean Payton's bad luck on last second drives like the Minnesota miracle, I can't blame him for wanting to run all the time off the clock.

hitta · 11-17-2023, 01:02 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

Do you have any stats backing an offensive penalty being more likely? I feel like in that situation the offense can known what its going to do and prepare while the defense has react. Also not all offensive penalties result in a run off, it would probably have to be a pre-snap penalty.

With Sean Payton's bad luck on last-second drives like the Minnesota miracle, I can't blame him for wanting to run all the time off the clock.

A presnap penalty like a false start = game over. The most common penalty in the NFL is offensive holding. The second most common penalty is a false start. In terms of percentages, they outrank the other penalties by a significant margin. Over 1/3 of the penalties called are those two penalties. The highest defensive penalty called is defensive holding. Defensive pass interference is very close in percentage to defensive holding. No passes are being thrown so those penalties are both unlikely. 12 guys on the field is very uncommon and probably only occurred due to the situation. It's hard to say how likely it is in that situation. I'd bet quite a bit though that a false start and an offensive holding would still be the most common penalties in that situation. An offensive holding wouldn't end the game unless the game clock ran out, but it would make the next FG attempt significantly harder. I deal with math quite a bit, and I'm going to make what I think is a very good guess in that stopping the clock there makes your chances of winning far more likely than running your FG unit onto the field with a running clock ticking down.

People have been saying that Mahomes got KC into FG range with 13 seconds remaining, but people forget that Mahomes had 3 TOs. Any tackle in the field of play would probably end the game once Buffalo got back the ball. What Mahomes did and what Josh Allen would have to do are two completely different levels of difficulty.

11-16-2023, 08:14 PM	#1
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by BakoSaint You are missing one thing. Rushing the kicking team also rushed the defense. In the end, rushing the defense gave Lutz 2 chances to make the kick and improved their chances of winning the game. Had Lutz made the initial attempt, I believe Denver could have declined the 12 man penalty and won. Since Denver missed the kick, Denver accepted the 12 man. Rushing the defense worked. It could be a partial excuse for Lutz’s miss, but I am ok with the coaching decision from Payton. It may increase the chance Lutz misses but that is probably outweighed by taking time off the clock and increasing the chances of a Bill penalty. I guess it could have increased the chance of. Denver penalty too which the Bills could accept or decline depending on whether Denver makes the kick, but if Buffalo accepts a Denver penalty Lutz would get an unrushed but farther kick and the time would still come off the clock. You basically argued against yourself. In addition, it's far more likely to have an offensive penalty in that situation than a defensive one. I think if they had an offensive penalty, the game would be over. There would be a 10-second runoff and the game also ends with an offensive penalty at 00 time, which makes doing that kick even more risky. There would be no redo like you stated.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340

11-16-2023, 09:21 PM	#2
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,408	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by hitta You basically argued against yourself. In addition, it's far more likely to have an offensive penalty in that situation than a defensive one. I think if they had an offensive penalty, the game would be over. There would be a 10-second runoff and the game also ends with an offensive penalty at 00 time, which makes doing that kick even more risky. There would be no redo like you stated. Do you have any stats backing an offensive penalty being more likely? I feel like in that situation the offense can known what its going to do and prepare while the defense has react. Also not all offensive penalties result in a run off, it would probably have to be a pre-snap penalty. With Sean Payton's bad luck on last second drives like the Minnesota miracle, I can't blame him for wanting to run all the time off the clock.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,408

11-17-2023, 01:02 AM	#3
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340	Re: Lutz vs Grupe Stats - Lutz is not playing better Originally Posted by BakoSaint Do you have any stats backing an offensive penalty being more likely? I feel like in that situation the offense can known what its going to do and prepare while the defense has react. Also not all offensive penalties result in a run off, it would probably have to be a pre-snap penalty. With Sean Payton's bad luck on last-second drives like the Minnesota miracle, I can't blame him for wanting to run all the time off the clock. A presnap penalty like a false start = game over. The most common penalty in the NFL is offensive holding. The second most common penalty is a false start. In terms of percentages, they outrank the other penalties by a significant margin. Over 1/3 of the penalties called are those two penalties. The highest defensive penalty called is defensive holding. Defensive pass interference is very close in percentage to defensive holding. No passes are being thrown so those penalties are both unlikely. 12 guys on the field is very uncommon and probably only occurred due to the situation. It's hard to say how likely it is in that situation. I'd bet quite a bit though that a false start and an offensive holding would still be the most common penalties in that situation. An offensive holding wouldn't end the game unless the game clock ran out, but it would make the next FG attempt significantly harder. I deal with math quite a bit, and I'm going to make what I think is a very good guess in that stopping the clock there makes your chances of winning far more likely than running your FG unit onto the field with a running clock ticking down. People have been saying that Mahomes got KC into FG range with 13 seconds remaining, but people forget that Mahomes had 3 TOs. Any tackle in the field of play would probably end the game once Buffalo got back the ball. What Mahomes did and what Josh Allen would have to do are two completely different levels of difficulty.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340