Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion

04-17-2024, 08:14 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

I wonder if the talent is really up on offense and down on defense in this draft or if because the past season was anomalously down offensively across most of the league, too many teams see offense as their greatest need. If everyone is drafting offense, that becomes an argument to draft defense. If offense being down across the league is a long term trend, maybe our receivers are better than we think and our corners are worse than we think, and likewise our offensive line is better than we think and our defensive line is worse than we think, because lower offensive success and higher defensive success is the new normal.

The way I have heard it explained is not that offensive talent is up in the draft or that defensive talent is down. The fact is that there is a greater need offensively and the demand will be greater early for the supposed cream of the crop. Offensive linemen are coming out of college ill-prepared as compared to the past and only a small handful might be considered close to being ready to throw into the mix and all of those are likely to go in the first round. I counted nine or ten offensive linemen favored to go in round one with fingers crossed by teams hoping that they can be plugged in and play right away somehow.

QB's are also in great demand. As many a six are projected to go in round one. Historically four or five of those will not be starting in three years.

On the other hand, WR's seem to be coming out more prepared than ever. There may be as many as seven this year going early. And then there's Bowers at TE.

That makes as many as 22 of the 32 picks being offense. It seems to me that there should be more high end defensive talent available in round two this year.

Rugby Saint II · 04-17-2024, 12:19 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

The way I have heard it explained is not that offensive talent is up in the draft or that defensive talent is down. The fact is that there is a greater need offensively and the demand will be greater early for the supposed cream of the crop. Offensive linemen are coming out of college ill-prepared as compared to the past and only a small handful might be considered close to being ready to throw into the mix and all of those are likely to go in the first round. I counted nine or ten offensive linemen favored to go in round one with fingers crossed by teams hoping that they can be plugged in and play right away somehow.

QB's are also in great demand. As many a six are projected to go in round one. Historically four or five of those will not be starting in three years.

On the other hand, WR's seem to be coming out more prepared than ever. There may be as many as seven this year going early. And then there's Bowers at TE.

That makes as many as 22 of the 32 picks being offense. It seems to me that there should be more high end defensive talent available in round two this year.

I see your point Guido, and I like it. I believe that there should still be a great prospect there at #14 at a position of need which should be an OT or WR. BPA in the first round has great value this year with the early first round being very active with trades for QB's.

I want Brock Bowers in the first round if he's there. If not, a great consolation prize is a top three tackle!

K Major · 04-17-2024, 12:45 PM

Saints aren’t drafting a TE @ pick 14.

Rugby Saint II · 04-17-2024, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

Saints aren’t drafting a TE @ pick 14.

I don't know about that K. Bowers looks like a generational tight end and if he's there at #14 then he's the BPA and great value. Honestly, I want a tackle there because I want the O line to get better and we need to address it in the draft.....but I could live with Bowers and who ever we traded back into the early second round for on the O line if we double dipped at the position.

K Major · 04-17-2024, 02:58 PM

Two under-the-radar positions that the Saints need to address in the draft - YouTube

K Major · 04-18-2024, 09:43 AM

Michael Hall Jr
DL - Ohio St

Strong upper body, quick & good footwork.
Long arms and has that “get off” vs offensive lineman

Day 2 grades (2-4th rounds)

Boston Saint · 04-19-2024, 12:08 PM

Trade up and get JD from LSU. He’s Mahomes 2.0.

Rugby Saint II · 04-19-2024, 01:25 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Trade up and get JD from LSU. He’s Mahomes 2.0.

Hey, stranger. Who Dat!

BakoSaint · 04-20-2024, 08:55 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

The way I have heard it explained is not that offensive talent is up in the draft or that defensive talent is down. The fact is that there is a greater need offensively and the demand will be greater early for the supposed cream of the crop. Offensive linemen are coming out of college ill-prepared as compared to the past and only a small handful might be considered close to being ready to throw into the mix and all of those are likely to go in the first round. I counted nine or ten offensive linemen favored to go in round one with fingers crossed by teams hoping that they can be plugged in and play right away somehow.

QB's are also in great demand. As many a six are projected to go in round one. Historically four or five of those will not be starting in three years.

On the other hand, WR's seem to be coming out more prepared than ever. There may be as many as seven this year going early. And then there's Bowers at TE.

That makes as many as 22 of the 32 picks being offense. It seems to me that there should be more high end defensive talent available in round two this year.

I think if 22 of 32 picks in the First Round are offense, it could benefit a team to be contrarian and pick defense regardless of need. If the talent level is similar, OT is our need and we should pick OT. But if teams are passing on potentially great 1st round defenders for offensive players who would normally go in the 2nd round just because offense is down across the league, and drafting 2nd round offensive talents in the 1st round won't fix those offensive problems and is just a sign of overreaction and desperation, then in a lower scoring league the best team could be the one that ignores the herd mentality and takes advantage of the overreaction to get elite defenders. There just isn't any situation where it will really pay to pass on Warren Sapp for Kyle Turley, pass on Patrick Peterson for Emmanuel Sanders, or pass on Ray Lewis for Mark Ingram II.

When offense was on the rise throughout the league, and defenses were struggling more and more every year, I don't think that teams overreacted about their individual defenses struggles and stopped drafting offensive players, for the most part. The rise of offense was seen as a natural evolution of the league, and while drafting for team needs, if a much better offensive player was available you would take them and win by leading the trend of greater offenses not fighting it with defense. If those trends are temporarily reversing and offense is down, it may hit different emotionally, but logically if a defended is available who we rank by far as BPA, we should draft them, in every round if necessary.

Being contrarian could have even more advantages. If teams draft offense heavily in the early the rounds, they could shift to drafting more defense in later rounds to fill out the roster. Whatever round that flips, the added value for drafting defenders could quickly be erased, and by the 3rd or 4th round talent levels may be similar. So if it happens that way, a team that draft defense in the first two rounds and offense the rest, in reverse of league trends, might get way more value. And as we have seen in the past, those middle and late round picks can hit too.

BakoSaint · 04-20-2024, 09:00 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Trade up and get JD from LSU. He’s Mahomes 2.0.

I don't believe in big trades up. I don't care if there is a QB named Archie Peyton Julius Caesar Manning III who just won the Heisman and National Championship. I think when you spend multiple future high picks to trade up you put too much pressure on the athlete, and you deplete the resources needed for them to have a fair chance to succeed. Want a really high pick? Don't trade future picks. Gamble the picks you have without trading for ones you don't and if those gambles don't work out, lose games. Then you will get a high pick. But I am not sure when I have seen mega blockbuster trades really work out, only small strategic moves to move up a little.

04-17-2024, 08:14 AM	#301
Threaded by AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,044 Rating: (0 votes - average) Originally Posted by BakoSaint I wonder if the talent is really up on offense and down on defense in this draft or if because the past season was anomalously down offensively across most of the league, too many teams see offense as their greatest need. If everyone is drafting offense, that becomes an argument to draft defense. If offense being down across the league is a long term trend, maybe our receivers are better than we think and our corners are worse than we think, and likewise our offensive line is better than we think and our defensive line is worse than we think, because lower offensive success and higher defensive success is the new normal. The way I have heard it explained is not that offensive talent is up in the draft or that defensive talent is down. The fact is that there is a greater need offensively and the demand will be greater early for the supposed cream of the crop. Offensive linemen are coming out of college ill-prepared as compared to the past and only a small handful might be considered close to being ready to throw into the mix and all of those are likely to go in the first round. I counted nine or ten offensive linemen favored to go in round one with fingers crossed by teams hoping that they can be plugged in and play right away somehow. QB's are also in great demand. As many a six are projected to go in round one. Historically four or five of those will not be starting in three years. On the other hand, WR's seem to be coming out more prepared than ever. There may be as many as seven this year going early. And then there's Bowers at TE. That makes as many as 22 of the 32 picks being offense. It seems to me that there should be more high end defensive talent available in round two this year. Rugby Saint II, MarchingOn and Thirty3 like this.
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04-17-2024, 12:19 PM	#302
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,043	Re: Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion Originally Posted by AsylumGuido The way I have heard it explained is not that offensive talent is up in the draft or that defensive talent is down. The fact is that there is a greater need offensively and the demand will be greater early for the supposed cream of the crop. Offensive linemen are coming out of college ill-prepared as compared to the past and only a small handful might be considered close to being ready to throw into the mix and all of those are likely to go in the first round. I counted nine or ten offensive linemen favored to go in round one with fingers crossed by teams hoping that they can be plugged in and play right away somehow. QB's are also in great demand. As many a six are projected to go in round one. Historically four or five of those will not be starting in three years. On the other hand, WR's seem to be coming out more prepared than ever. There may be as many as seven this year going early. And then there's Bowers at TE. That makes as many as 22 of the 32 picks being offense. It seems to me that there should be more high end defensive talent available in round two this year. I see your point Guido, and I like it. I believe that there should still be a great prospect there at #14 at a position of need which should be an OT or WR. BPA in the first round has great value this year with the early first round being very active with trades for QB's. I want Brock Bowers in the first round if he's there. If not, a great consolation prize is a top three tackle!
	Last edited by Rugby Saint II; 04-17-2024 at 12:34 PM..

04-17-2024, 12:45 PM	#303
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,588 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion Saints aren’t drafting a TE @ pick 14.

04-17-2024, 01:07 PM	#304
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,043	Re: Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion Originally Posted by K Major Saints aren’t drafting a TE @ pick 14. I don't know about that K. Bowers looks like a generational tight end and if he's there at #14 then he's the BPA and great value. Honestly, I want a tackle there because I want the O line to get better and we need to address it in the draft.....but I could live with Bowers and who ever we traded back into the early second round for on the O line if we double dipped at the position.

04-18-2024, 09:43 AM	#306
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,588 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion Michael Hall Jr DL - Ohio St Strong upper body, quick & good footwork. Long arms and has that “get off” vs offensive lineman Day 2 grades (2-4th rounds) Rugby Saint II likes this.

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04-19-2024, 12:08 PM	#307
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion Trade up and get JD from LSU. He’s Mahomes 2.0.

04-19-2024, 01:25 PM	#308
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,043	Re: Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion Originally Posted by Boston Saint Trade up and get JD from LSU. He’s Mahomes 2.0. Hey, stranger. Who Dat! AsylumGuido and Boston Saint like this.

04-20-2024, 08:55 AM	#309
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,087	Re: Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion Originally Posted by AsylumGuido The way I have heard it explained is not that offensive talent is up in the draft or that defensive talent is down. The fact is that there is a greater need offensively and the demand will be greater early for the supposed cream of the crop. Offensive linemen are coming out of college ill-prepared as compared to the past and only a small handful might be considered close to being ready to throw into the mix and all of those are likely to go in the first round. I counted nine or ten offensive linemen favored to go in round one with fingers crossed by teams hoping that they can be plugged in and play right away somehow. QB's are also in great demand. As many a six are projected to go in round one. Historically four or five of those will not be starting in three years. On the other hand, WR's seem to be coming out more prepared than ever. There may be as many as seven this year going early. And then there's Bowers at TE. That makes as many as 22 of the 32 picks being offense. It seems to me that there should be more high end defensive talent available in round two this year. I think if 22 of 32 picks in the First Round are offense, it could benefit a team to be contrarian and pick defense regardless of need. If the talent level is similar, OT is our need and we should pick OT. But if teams are passing on potentially great 1st round defenders for offensive players who would normally go in the 2nd round just because offense is down across the league, and drafting 2nd round offensive talents in the 1st round won't fix those offensive problems and is just a sign of overreaction and desperation, then in a lower scoring league the best team could be the one that ignores the herd mentality and takes advantage of the overreaction to get elite defenders. There just isn't any situation where it will really pay to pass on Warren Sapp for Kyle Turley, pass on Patrick Peterson for Emmanuel Sanders, or pass on Ray Lewis for Mark Ingram II. When offense was on the rise throughout the league, and defenses were struggling more and more every year, I don't think that teams overreacted about their individual defenses struggles and stopped drafting offensive players, for the most part. The rise of offense was seen as a natural evolution of the league, and while drafting for team needs, if a much better offensive player was available you would take them and win by leading the trend of greater offenses not fighting it with defense. If those trends are temporarily reversing and offense is down, it may hit different emotionally, but logically if a defended is available who we rank by far as BPA, we should draft them, in every round if necessary. Being contrarian could have even more advantages. If teams draft offense heavily in the early the rounds, they could shift to drafting more defense in later rounds to fill out the roster. Whatever round that flips, the added value for drafting defenders could quickly be erased, and by the 3rd or 4th round talent levels may be similar. So if it happens that way, a team that draft defense in the first two rounds and offense the rest, in reverse of league trends, might get way more value. And as we have seen in the past, those middle and late round picks can hit too.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,087

04-20-2024, 09:00 AM	#310
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,087	Re: Official 2024 Saints Draft Discussion Originally Posted by Boston Saint Trade up and get JD from LSU. He’s Mahomes 2.0. I don't believe in big trades up. I don't care if there is a QB named Archie Peyton Julius Caesar Manning III who just won the Heisman and National Championship. I think when you spend multiple future high picks to trade up you put too much pressure on the athlete, and you deplete the resources needed for them to have a fair chance to succeed. Want a really high pick? Don't trade future picks. Gamble the picks you have without trading for ones you don't and if those gambles don't work out, lose games. Then you will get a high pick. But I am not sure when I have seen mega blockbuster trades really work out, only small strategic moves to move up a little.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,087