Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia

halloween 65 · 10-07-2014, 10:04 PM

Originally Posted by leilung

Seems like too many of us like to give #9 a mulligan on his play too often. If you get the stats and the glory, you should also be the goat when its deserved.
That being said, two things I've noticed this season:
1) His inability to hit a deep route in stride. Just about every deep shot, the receiver has had to pull up short when he had his defender beaten.
2) His inability to hit targets on short timing routes. In the past, he had the vision (and confidence in his receivers) to place that rock where he knew the receiver was going to be in the pattern. Now he's holding the ball longer and the window vs the defender closes faster.

Not sure if these are indicators of 'decline' per se, but his mechanics are definitely off.

Excellent assessment!! I'm seeing the same thing, but I do think it's decline.

Choupique · 10-08-2014, 11:36 AM

how many of you could replace drew brees on his worst day?

ZIP!
NADA!
not a phuckin' ONE of you...

that is what i thought.

sooo... why don't you stfu and cheer for your team, disloyal fair weather "fans"

if you're doggin' on drew, you aren't a fan.
to consider yourself that would prove you a liar.

if you're b.itching about drew, move to atlanta or dallas.
you'll fit right in there, guanostain fair weather "fans".

westbankdaze · 10-11-2014, 09:35 AM

Brees is in decline no doubt. Like Bill Polian says about aging QBs "Father Time is undefeated"

Supertek · 10-11-2014, 02:09 PM

I think he needs glasses.

Utah_Saint · 10-11-2014, 02:34 PM

Drew throws picks. He always has and probably always will.

He's trending toward 19 picks for the season.

While this year isn't good, it isn't his worst.

Picks/game
2010 - 1.37
2003 - 1.36
2014 - 1.20
2012 - 1.19
2007 - 1.13

A much more accurate way measure a quarterbacks interceptions is as a percentage of attempts. Drew is currently 11th in the NFL in INT/ATT at 2.8%

Blake Bortles 6.2%
Geno Smith 4.1%
Ryan Fitzpatrick 3.8%
Jake Locker 3.6%
Kirk Cousins 3.3%
Jay Cutler 3.1%
Tony Romo 3.1%
Matt Ryan 3.0%
Eli Manning 3.0%
Derek Carr 3.0%
Drew Brees 2.8%

Compared to past seasons Drew's INT/ATT are
2003 - 4.21%
2010 - 3.34%
2002 - 3.04%
2005 - 3.00%
2012 - 2.84%
2014 - 2.75%

He's currently 5th in the league in overall accuracy.

And when it comes to the deep ball (20+ yards in the air), he's currently ranked 6th in accuracy at 50%.

But he's only 24th in deep passes as a percentage of attempts. (he's not throwing deep often). So it's not that he's missing the deep passes but he's not taking many of them.

5 games is a pretty small sample size when compared to previous seasons. It looks like he's having a below average year but it's hard to say he's in decline.

Something I thought was interesting was Drew's protection compared to previous seasons.

Pass blocking efficiency is simply the percentage of time the quarterback is not pressured / drop back.

PBE
2007 - 84.2% - 3rd in the league
2008 - 81.7% - 15th
2009 - 82.4% - 10th
2010 - 81.3% - 8th
2011 - 83.6% - 5th
2012 - 80.9% - 9th
2013 - 80.8% - 6th
2014 - 79.1% - 23rd (5 games in)

The Saints O-line has excelled at pass protection since Drew's been here. But they are struggling this season. He's getting hurried in the pocket more this year, than he ever has as a Saint. I don't think it's a coincidence that they are having a bad year and so is Drew.

Danno · 10-11-2014, 02:50 PM

Excellent stuff Utah!

WHODATINCA · 10-13-2014, 08:59 PM

^^^ Um, what Utah said. Thanks Utah, I knew what I was seeing -- I just didn't have the time this year to do the research. Thanks, that was aweSOME!

And in other news, Drew throws picks because: 1) in the Payton-Brees era, we are a pass first, pass second and pass third team. On fourth, we think about PA, but then line up with an empty back set.

Barry from MS · 10-13-2014, 09:29 PM

Originally Posted by Choupique

sooo... why don't you stfu and cheer for your team, disloyal fair weather "fans"

if you're doggin' on drew, you aren't a fan.
to consider yourself that would prove you a liar.

if you're b.itching about drew, move to atlanta or dallas.
you'll fit right in there, guanostain fair weather "fans".

Yes, I was "doggin' on Drew". So what? I have been disappointed with some of the decisions he's made so far in 5 games. Am I not allowed to be disappointed and then saying how and why I am disappointed? And can't I be afforded the right to voice my opinion, whether anyone on this site considers my opinions to be the golden truth or to be absolute garbage?

And I'm guessing you never complained about our QB during the Brooks Era of Disappointment? If you didn't, you are a better human than me and most of us here. But calling folks that have been on The Saints Train for decades "liars" because we criticize (fairly or unfairly) any aspect of this team is foul.

Sorry, sir, but that's my opinion.

Geesh...can't believe I allowed myself to be sucked back into this thread.

BOLTS4LIFE · 10-13-2014, 09:41 PM

Some quarterbacks play better in their 30s because they learn to play smarter. Brees is one of those guys.

At 35, I think he has a good 2-3 years left (as starter).

Barry from MS · 10-13-2014, 09:42 PM

And thanks, Utah Saint, for all that hard work with the stats.

Still doesn't sway my opinion about his decision-making being in decline for these first 5 games, but I can certainly see that side of the argument. The QB's ahead of him on that list is littered with the Genos & the Rookies of the league, and one can see it as Brees being 11th worst in the NFL in the INT/ATT department. Half Empty/Half Full, I reckon. But thanks, man, for putting that together.

"Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in..."

10-07-2014, 10:04 PM	#41
halloween 65 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Grand Haven, Michigan by way of a little Mississippi River town in Louisiana Posts: 5,893	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia Originally Posted by leilung Seems like too many of us like to give #9 a mulligan on his play too often. If you get the stats and the glory, you should also be the goat when its deserved. That being said, two things I've noticed this season: 1) His inability to hit a deep route in stride. Just about every deep shot, the receiver has had to pull up short when he had his defender beaten. 2) His inability to hit targets on short timing routes. In the past, he had the vision (and confidence in his receivers) to place that rock where he knew the receiver was going to be in the pattern. Now he's holding the ball longer and the window vs the defender closes faster. Not sure if these are indicators of 'decline' per se, but his mechanics are definitely off. Excellent assessment!! I'm seeing the same thing, but I do think it's decline.

10-08-2014, 11:36 AM	#42
Choupique 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,594	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia how many of you could replace drew brees on his worst day? ZIP! NADA! not a phuckin' ONE of you... that is what i thought. sooo... why don't you stfu and cheer for your team, disloyal fair weather "fans" if you're doggin' on drew, you aren't a fan. to consider yourself that would prove you a liar. if you're b.itching about drew, move to atlanta or dallas. you'll fit right in there, guanostain fair weather "fans".
Choupique 1000 Posts + Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,594

10-11-2014, 09:35 AM	#43
westbankdaze 500th Post Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 843	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia Brees is in decline no doubt. Like Bill Polian says about aging QBs "Father Time is undefeated"
westbankdaze 500th Post Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 843

10-11-2014, 02:09 PM	#44
Supertek 500th Post Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Harvey La. Posts: 611	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia I think he needs glasses.

10-11-2014, 02:34 PM	#45
Utah_Saint Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2012 Location: Salt Lake City, Utah Posts: 3,521	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia Drew throws picks. He always has and probably always will. He's trending toward 19 picks for the season. While this year isn't good, it isn't his worst. Picks/game 2010 - 1.37 2003 - 1.36 2014 - 1.20 2012 - 1.19 2007 - 1.13 A much more accurate way measure a quarterbacks interceptions is as a percentage of attempts. Drew is currently 11th in the NFL in INT/ATT at 2.8% Blake Bortles 6.2% Geno Smith 4.1% Ryan Fitzpatrick 3.8% Jake Locker 3.6% Kirk Cousins 3.3% Jay Cutler 3.1% Tony Romo 3.1% Matt Ryan 3.0% Eli Manning 3.0% Derek Carr 3.0% Drew Brees 2.8% Compared to past seasons Drew's INT/ATT are 2003 - 4.21% 2010 - 3.34% 2002 - 3.04% 2005 - 3.00% 2012 - 2.84% 2014 - 2.75% He's currently 5th in the league in overall accuracy. And when it comes to the deep ball (20+ yards in the air), he's currently ranked 6th in accuracy at 50%. But he's only 24th in deep passes as a percentage of attempts. (he's not throwing deep often). So it's not that he's missing the deep passes but he's not taking many of them. 5 games is a pretty small sample size when compared to previous seasons. It looks like he's having a below average year but it's hard to say he's in decline. Something I thought was interesting was Drew's protection compared to previous seasons. Pass blocking efficiency is simply the percentage of time the quarterback is not pressured / drop back. PBE 2007 - 84.2% - 3rd in the league 2008 - 81.7% - 15th 2009 - 82.4% - 10th 2010 - 81.3% - 8th 2011 - 83.6% - 5th 2012 - 80.9% - 9th 2013 - 80.8% - 6th 2014 - 79.1% - 23rd (5 games in) The Saints O-line has excelled at pass protection since Drew's been here. But they are struggling this season. He's getting hurried in the pocket more this year, than he ever has as a Saint. I don't think it's a coincidence that they are having a bad year and so is Drew. Halo, SaintFanInATLHELL, Danno and 2 others like this.

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10-11-2014, 02:50 PM	#46
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,720	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia Excellent stuff Utah!

10-13-2014, 08:59 PM	#47
WHODATINCA Site Donor Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: South Bay Posts: 3,784	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia ^^^ Um, what Utah said. Thanks Utah, I knew what I was seeing -- I just didn't have the time this year to do the research. Thanks, that was aweSOME! And in other news, Drew throws picks because: 1) in the Payton-Brees era, we are a pass first, pass second and pass third team. On fourth, we think about PA, but then line up with an empty back set.

10-13-2014, 09:29 PM	#48
Barry from MS Site Donor 2014 Join Date: May 2007 Location: TEMPO VC Okefenokee Swamp Posts: 1,985 Blog Entries: 2	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia Originally Posted by Choupique sooo... why don't you stfu and cheer for your team, disloyal fair weather "fans" if you're doggin' on drew, you aren't a fan. to consider yourself that would prove you a liar. if you're b.itching about drew, move to atlanta or dallas. you'll fit right in there, guanostain fair weather "fans". Yes, I was "doggin' on Drew". So what? I have been disappointed with some of the decisions he's made so far in 5 games. Am I not allowed to be disappointed and then saying how and why I am disappointed? And can't I be afforded the right to voice my opinion, whether anyone on this site considers my opinions to be the golden truth or to be absolute garbage? And I'm guessing you never complained about our QB during the Brooks Era of Disappointment? If you didn't, you are a better human than me and most of us here. But calling folks that have been on The Saints Train for decades "liars" because we criticize (fairly or unfairly) any aspect of this team is foul. Sorry, sir, but that's my opinion. Geesh...can't believe I allowed myself to be sucked back into this thread.
	"I'd far rather be happy than right any day" ~ Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy "Honor: if you need it defined, you don't have it" ~ Ron Swanson

10-13-2014, 09:41 PM	#49
BOLTS4LIFE OUR NEW REGIME! Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: San Diego, CA Posts: 564	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia Some quarterbacks play better in their 30s because they learn to play smarter. Brees is one of those guys. At 35, I think he has a good 2-3 years left (as starter).

10-13-2014, 09:42 PM	#50
Barry from MS Site Donor 2014 Join Date: May 2007 Location: TEMPO VC Okefenokee Swamp Posts: 1,985 Blog Entries: 2	Re: Drew Brees Is Not in Decline — You Just Have Brees Nostalgia And thanks, Utah Saint, for all that hard work with the stats. Still doesn't sway my opinion about his decision-making being in decline for these first 5 games, but I can certainly see that side of the argument. The QB's ahead of him on that list is littered with the Genos & the Rookies of the league, and one can see it as Brees being 11th worst in the NFL in the INT/ATT department. Half Empty/Half Full, I reckon. But thanks, man, for putting that together. "Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in..."
	"I'd far rather be happy than right any day" ~ Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy "Honor: if you need it defined, you don't have it" ~ Ron Swanson

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