Pay Brees!

SaintFanInATLHELL · 08-12-2016, 08:29 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

He's already paid.

I don't get it.

I'm going to take this one at face value. Brees is paid by the Saints only until the end of the league year. After that his contract is up and he is a free agent.

The Saints would have to pay him $43 million for one year under a franchise tag. It's not likely to happen.

So an extension is essentially the next contract. And Brees' next contract has three or four essential factors:

1. Brees' production
2. Brees' age
3. The NFL QB market
4. Brees' standing among NFL QBs.

If the 2016 Saints has production numbers along the lines of 12 wins, 5000+ yards passing, 40+ TDs, and a deep run into the playoffs, then Brees will enter free agency as the QB who had the best season ever for a QB entering the free agent market.

Now look at the market, which escalates each and every year. In 2016 Luck and Palmer are pushing $25 million. There are 11 QBs that have a high average salary than Brees for 2016.

Couple those two together and Brees will be worth more than $25 million a year on the open market;.

Even worse there are teams that have a ton of money available and need a QB that may be willing to invest $100 million for 4 years. Teams like Denver and Cleveland, who may need a QB, are north of $25 million in cap space starting next year.

So the Saints are in a bind. Any extension is going to have to be in that ballpark. However, locking Brees in for 3-4 years at that level may end up being golden handcuffs for the Saints.

But all Brees needs to do is wait and he can get that $100 million in 4 years starting in 2017. So it's really up to the Saints to decide to get it worked out in the next 3 weeks before another season of stats are notched and the price skyrockets.

SFIAH

The Dude · 08-12-2016, 08:42 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Think what some are concerned for is dead, guaranteed money against the salary cap in years he may not play...

For those of you in your twenties and thirties, especially those who are feeling their oats in their late thirties - they dry up quick...

Drew may honestly feel he can continue to do this another four years, those older know better...

Have no problem paying him major dinero year-year; that way, if he's still elite, he gets his, if not, he leaves and the team isn't hampered with dead money...

But I think we'd all agree, especially after these past two seasons, we don't want big contracts with empty lockers...

They can structure it in a way that is cap friendly. For all we know he knows he only has a couple years left and wants the security of a big signing bonus and guaranteed money. Playing year to year is too much of a risk and would be moronic on his part. Especially given his age.

AsylumGuido · 08-12-2016, 09:16 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Think what some are concerned for is dead, guaranteed money against the salary cap in years he may not play...

For those of you in your twenties and thirties, especially those who are feeling their oats in their late thirties - they dry up quick...

Drew may honestly feel he can continue to do this another four years, those older know better...

Have no problem paying him major dinero year-year; that way, if he's still elite, he gets his, if not, he leaves and the team isn't hampered with dead money...

But I think we'd all agree, especially after these past two seasons, we don't want big contracts with empty lockers...

I'm older, much older, and I have no doubt Brees can play out another four year contract at a high level. You see, I may be pushin' sixty, but I am not so stuck in the past that I base the physical capability of an athlete in 2016 based upon 1980 standards. Try joining the twenty-first century. You may enjoy it.

neugey · 08-12-2016, 10:56 PM

They need to pay Brees now if they're gonna do it. Brees is only going to have more leverage if this gets to eleventh hour.

voodooido · 08-12-2016, 11:32 PM

Originally Posted by The Dude

You don't have to be. You won't be paying for him. Some of you act like these players are payed with tax dollars.

First off, the word is PAID. Second, I do pay for him. I go to games, which have gotten insanely expensive. I watch the games, buy the team shirts and so on. With that said I still would like to pay him. I just hate that paying him will take away from filling other holes. I say offer him 22 million a year over 4 years. If he refuses then move on. Cousins will cost around 15-18 million a year and he is much younger. Sign him as a FA next year and use the left over to build the trenches.

lee909 · 08-13-2016, 12:06 AM

No way Cousins is coming anywhere under 29ml next year. At least 10-12 teams need a good QB in this league. It would be madness not to pay Brees up to $25ml a year. Great QB hit the FA market ince in a blue moon. You think Miami are not still kicking themselves they didnt take Brees 1p years down the line

SaintFanInATLHELL · 08-13-2016, 12:10 AM

Originally Posted by voodooido

First off, the word is PAID. Second, I do pay for him. I go to games, which have gotten insanely expensive. I watch the games, buy the team shirts and so on. With that said I still would like to pay him. I just hate that paying him will take away from filling other holes. I say offer him 22 million a year over 4 years. If he refuses then move on. Cousins will cost around 15-18 million a year and he is much younger. Sign him as a FA next year and use the left over to build the trenches.

Two things:

1. Don't bother to insult Brees with $22 million/4 years unless the team plans to guarantee the entire $88 million. That offer simply doesn't come close to matching the current market.

2. If Cousins has another year close to the one he had last year, his market is going to jump to $24 million. easily.

If you keep watching long enough you realize that the teams have little leverage here. It's only youth or injury that moves QB at the elite level. Remember that injury is how Brees got to New Orleans. Same with Manning going to Denver.

Youth causes movement also. This article ranks all potential starting QBs this year:

2016 NFL QB Tier Rankings - ABC News

Here's a blurb on the discussion on Brock Osweller:

"I wouldn't have minded if he stayed in Denver," said a head coach whose team faces the Broncos this season. "If he was any good, they would not have let him go. That is one position, especially if your general manager is a quarterback, you don't let that guy go if he is good."

He got out the door because he is young. If he had finished a contract playing and leading the team, Denver would have found the money to keep him.

So the Saints can move on, or they can keep Brees. But in no case is a low ball offer relative to the market going to fly.

SFIAH

burningmetal · 08-13-2016, 12:46 AM

I'm not going to predict when or if he signs, or for how much money. I can take a somewhat educated guess just like everyone else on this board. But I'm frankly not interested in playing that game.

All I know is there were a couple of people in particular who had it all figured out before the draft (so they thought) which sparked several debates about what the real reason was for the delay in getting a deal done. Enough time has passed since then for me to declare that those people knew as much as I thought they did. Which is to say, not much. I wouldn't make that statement about someone who was just giving an opinion. But when you state something as if you have inside info, you better be right.

This doesn't mean Drew won't still sign. But there is clearly a lot more to the negotiations than just waiting on the draft picks to sign (considering they all signed a long time ago). I never agreed with that notion, but I couldn't have told you for sure what was going to happen. With the rookies contracts being capped, it didn't make sense to me for the team to wait on that.

We all want to see Drew stay, but I maintain that we can't just write this guy a blank check, essentially, just because of who he is. There still has to be some give and take on both sides if this team is to be competitive. If a fair deal for both can't be done for any reason, then you just have to deal with it and move on. I'm not panicking over this in the least. Life for Saints fans will go on with or without Brees' services and no one plays forever, anyway.

SaintFanInATLHELL · 08-13-2016, 01:37 AM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

I'm not going to predict when or if he signs, or for how much money. I can take a somewhat educated guess just like everyone else on this board. But I'm frankly not interested in playing that game.

All I know is there were a couple of people in particular who had it all figured out before the draft (so they thought) which sparked several debates about what the real reason was for the delay in getting a deal done. Enough time has passed since then for me to declare that those people knew as much as I thought they did. Which is to say, not much. I wouldn't make that statement about someone who was just giving an opinion. But when you state something as if you have inside info, you better be right.

This doesn't mean Drew won't still sign. But there is clearly a lot more to the negotiations than just waiting on the draft picks to sign (considering they all signed a long time ago). I never agreed with that notion, but I couldn't have told you for sure what was going to happen. With the rookies contracts being capped, it didn't make sense to me for the team to wait on that.

Anyone who thought that the holdup was rookie contracts are whatever are operating with flawed assumptions. The two flawed assumptions that I've consistently seen over the last 6 months:

1. That this is some type of restructure that the team controls. It's not. It's a negotiation for a new contract. It's just that the Saints can do the extension now because Brees is under contract until next March. After that all bets are off.

2. That Brees is going to see this from a Saints Fan perspective. So somehow the option of accepting a low ball offer, or that there's no way he's going to play elsewhere are part of the equation. This is going to be Brees' last major contract. Up until this moment he is playing at an elite level. He is worth every penny of market value and has 10+ years of Hall of Fame level evidence to show for it.

There is nothing easy about this. Brees' last contract was $100 million, $60 million guaranteed. We all see the $30 million cap number for this year as the residual of that contract. The next one is going to average $25 million a year with much of it guaranteed. That's a tough pill to swallow for the Saints.

We all want to see Drew stay, but I maintain that we can't just write this guy a blank check, essentially, just because of who he is. There still has to be some give and take on both sides if this team is to be competitive.

The problem isn't that it's a blank check. The problem is that market rate seems like a blank check. Just think about the fact that Luck signed for 6 years/ $140 million/ $47 million guaranteed coming off a dismal season where he missed more than half the season. Where Von Miller, who isn't even a QB, just got $70 million in guaranteed dollars. That's the market. If the Saints choose not to pay it, some other team certainly will.

If a fair deal for both can't be done for any reason, then you just have to deal with it and move on. I'm not panicking over this in the least. Life for Saints fans will go on with or without Brees' services and no one plays forever, anyway.

I agree to a point. As long as there is a clear understanding that a fair deal for the player is going to have to near market rate, and that the guaranteed money will need to be upped in order to shorten the contract length. Brees isn't likely to get a Luck Type contract because few believe he'll be here 5 or 6 more years after 2016 to play. That's moving into George Blanda territory. Pretty much if a 3 year contract is on the table, then $70-$75 million is the number, and it'll likely have to be all (or nearly all) guaranteed.

As for the money for the rest of the squad, Loomis has been playing the accounting game based on the fact that the cap is going to keep rising. Brees money hasn't kept the Saints from outlaying dollars to Byrd, or Fleener, or fixing Westbank's contract. And that cap is going to keep growing. In fact the Saints will likely save over $5 million on this year's cap if they get a deal done as Brees' cap hit is at $30 million. An extension can put $40 million in Brees pocket and lower the cap to under $25 million at the same time.

Finally, be sure that stadium dollars are not the driving engine for paying the salaries of players. The vast bulk of the dollars are from TV contracts. And expect those contracts to keep pushing the cap, and player salaries because NFL football is like printing money for these networks and their advertisers.

SFIAH

lee909 · 08-13-2016, 01:51 AM

A three year $75ml is a fair deal,id be more than happy for the team to pay that. I could see it being that but maybe 4 years $100ml too.

The man has to be one of the top paid QB
People need to realise that a 40 year old man who has taken great care of his body today is not like a 40 year old man in 2000. Medical advances and sports recovery have taken massive leaps forward. Of course his arm strength may g slightly in the coming years but we saw o signs of it last year.Of course we would all love him to take a $20ml deal to give more cap space but that doesnt happen

08-12-2016, 08:29 PM	#11
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,776	Re: Pay Brees! Originally Posted by Danno He's already paid. I don't get it. I'm going to take this one at face value. Brees is paid by the Saints only until the end of the league year. After that his contract is up and he is a free agent. The Saints would have to pay him $43 million for one year under a franchise tag. It's not likely to happen. So an extension is essentially the next contract. And Brees' next contract has three or four essential factors: 1. Brees' production 2. Brees' age 3. The NFL QB market 4. Brees' standing among NFL QBs. If the 2016 Saints has production numbers along the lines of 12 wins, 5000+ yards passing, 40+ TDs, and a deep run into the playoffs, then Brees will enter free agency as the QB who had the best season ever for a QB entering the free agent market. Now look at the market, which escalates each and every year. In 2016 Luck and Palmer are pushing $25 million. There are 11 QBs that have a high average salary than Brees for 2016. Couple those two together and Brees will be worth more than $25 million a year on the open market;. Even worse there are teams that have a ton of money available and need a QB that may be willing to invest $100 million for 4 years. Teams like Denver and Cleveland, who may need a QB, are north of $25 million in cap space starting next year. So the Saints are in a bind. Any extension is going to have to be in that ballpark. However, locking Brees in for 3-4 years at that level may end up being golden handcuffs for the Saints. But all Brees needs to do is wait and he can get that $100 million in 4 years starting in 2017. So it's really up to the Saints to decide to get it worked out in the next 3 weeks before another season of stats are notched and the price skyrockets. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

08-12-2016, 08:42 PM	#12
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,050	Re: Pay Brees! Originally Posted by jeanpierre Think what some are concerned for is dead, guaranteed money against the salary cap in years he may not play... For those of you in your twenties and thirties, especially those who are feeling their oats in their late thirties - they dry up quick... Drew may honestly feel he can continue to do this another four years, those older know better... Have no problem paying him major dinero year-year; that way, if he's still elite, he gets his, if not, he leaves and the team isn't hampered with dead money... But I think we'd all agree, especially after these past two seasons, we don't want big contracts with empty lockers... They can structure it in a way that is cap friendly. For all we know he knows he only has a couple years left and wants the security of a big signing bonus and guaranteed money. Playing year to year is too much of a risk and would be moronic on his part. Especially given his age.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,050

08-12-2016, 09:16 PM	#13
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: Pay Brees! Originally Posted by jeanpierre Think what some are concerned for is dead, guaranteed money against the salary cap in years he may not play... For those of you in your twenties and thirties, especially those who are feeling their oats in their late thirties - they dry up quick... Drew may honestly feel he can continue to do this another four years, those older know better... Have no problem paying him major dinero year-year; that way, if he's still elite, he gets his, if not, he leaves and the team isn't hampered with dead money... But I think we'd all agree, especially after these past two seasons, we don't want big contracts with empty lockers... I'm older, much older, and I have no doubt Brees can play out another four year contract at a high level. You see, I may be pushin' sixty, but I am not so stuck in the past that I base the physical capability of an athlete in 2016 based upon 1980 standards. Try joining the twenty-first century. You may enjoy it. SmashMouth and captainshawn like this.

08-12-2016, 10:56 PM	#14
neugey Hu Dat! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,715 Blog Entries: 13	Re: Pay Brees! They need to pay Brees now if they're gonna do it. Brees is only going to have more leverage if this gets to eleventh hour. spkb25 likes this.

08-12-2016, 11:32 PM	#15
voodooido 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,770	Re: Pay Brees! Originally Posted by The Dude You don't have to be. You won't be paying for him. Some of you act like these players are payed with tax dollars. First off, the word is PAID. Second, I do pay for him. I go to games, which have gotten insanely expensive. I watch the games, buy the team shirts and so on. With that said I still would like to pay him. I just hate that paying him will take away from filling other holes. I say offer him 22 million a year over 4 years. If he refuses then move on. Cousins will cost around 15-18 million a year and he is much younger. Sign him as a FA next year and use the left over to build the trenches.
voodooido 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,770

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08-13-2016, 12:06 AM	#16
lee909 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Watford England Posts: 8,809 Blog Entries: 1	Re: Pay Brees! No way Cousins is coming anywhere under 29ml next year. At least 10-12 teams need a good QB in this league. It would be madness not to pay Brees up to $25ml a year. Great QB hit the FA market ince in a blue moon. You think Miami are not still kicking themselves they didnt take Brees 1p years down the line

08-13-2016, 12:10 AM	#17
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,776	Re: Pay Brees! Originally Posted by voodooido First off, the word is PAID. Second, I do pay for him. I go to games, which have gotten insanely expensive. I watch the games, buy the team shirts and so on. With that said I still would like to pay him. I just hate that paying him will take away from filling other holes. I say offer him 22 million a year over 4 years. If he refuses then move on. Cousins will cost around 15-18 million a year and he is much younger. Sign him as a FA next year and use the left over to build the trenches. Two things: 1. Don't bother to insult Brees with $22 million/4 years unless the team plans to guarantee the entire $88 million. That offer simply doesn't come close to matching the current market. 2. If Cousins has another year close to the one he had last year, his market is going to jump to $24 million. easily. If you keep watching long enough you realize that the teams have little leverage here. It's only youth or injury that moves QB at the elite level. Remember that injury is how Brees got to New Orleans. Same with Manning going to Denver. Youth causes movement also. This article ranks all potential starting QBs this year: 2016 NFL QB Tier Rankings - ABC News Here's a blurb on the discussion on Brock Osweller: "I wouldn't have minded if he stayed in Denver," said a head coach whose team faces the Broncos this season. "If he was any good, they would not have let him go. That is one position, especially if your general manager is a quarterback, you don't let that guy go if he is good." He got out the door because he is young. If he had finished a contract playing and leading the team, Denver would have found the money to keep him. So the Saints can move on, or they can keep Brees. But in no case is a low ball offer relative to the market going to fly. SFIAH jnormand likes this.
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

08-13-2016, 12:46 AM	#18
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Pay Brees! I'm not going to predict when or if he signs, or for how much money. I can take a somewhat educated guess just like everyone else on this board. But I'm frankly not interested in playing that game. All I know is there were a couple of people in particular who had it all figured out before the draft (so they thought) which sparked several debates about what the real reason was for the delay in getting a deal done. Enough time has passed since then for me to declare that those people knew as much as I thought they did. Which is to say, not much. I wouldn't make that statement about someone who was just giving an opinion. But when you state something as if you have inside info, you better be right. This doesn't mean Drew won't still sign. But there is clearly a lot more to the negotiations than just waiting on the draft picks to sign (considering they all signed a long time ago). I never agreed with that notion, but I couldn't have told you for sure what was going to happen. With the rookies contracts being capped, it didn't make sense to me for the team to wait on that. We all want to see Drew stay, but I maintain that we can't just write this guy a blank check, essentially, just because of who he is. There still has to be some give and take on both sides if this team is to be competitive. If a fair deal for both can't be done for any reason, then you just have to deal with it and move on. I'm not panicking over this in the least. Life for Saints fans will go on with or without Brees' services and no one plays forever, anyway.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

08-13-2016, 01:37 AM	#19
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,776	Re: Pay Brees! Originally Posted by burningmetal I'm not going to predict when or if he signs, or for how much money. I can take a somewhat educated guess just like everyone else on this board. But I'm frankly not interested in playing that game. All I know is there were a couple of people in particular who had it all figured out before the draft (so they thought) which sparked several debates about what the real reason was for the delay in getting a deal done. Enough time has passed since then for me to declare that those people knew as much as I thought they did. Which is to say, not much. I wouldn't make that statement about someone who was just giving an opinion. But when you state something as if you have inside info, you better be right. This doesn't mean Drew won't still sign. But there is clearly a lot more to the negotiations than just waiting on the draft picks to sign (considering they all signed a long time ago). I never agreed with that notion, but I couldn't have told you for sure what was going to happen. With the rookies contracts being capped, it didn't make sense to me for the team to wait on that. Anyone who thought that the holdup was rookie contracts are whatever are operating with flawed assumptions. The two flawed assumptions that I've consistently seen over the last 6 months: 1. That this is some type of restructure that the team controls. It's not. It's a negotiation for a new contract. It's just that the Saints can do the extension now because Brees is under contract until next March. After that all bets are off. 2. That Brees is going to see this from a Saints Fan perspective. So somehow the option of accepting a low ball offer, or that there's no way he's going to play elsewhere are part of the equation. This is going to be Brees' last major contract. Up until this moment he is playing at an elite level. He is worth every penny of market value and has 10+ years of Hall of Fame level evidence to show for it. There is nothing easy about this. Brees' last contract was $100 million, $60 million guaranteed. We all see the $30 million cap number for this year as the residual of that contract. The next one is going to average $25 million a year with much of it guaranteed. That's a tough pill to swallow for the Saints. We all want to see Drew stay, but I maintain that we can't just write this guy a blank check, essentially, just because of who he is. There still has to be some give and take on both sides if this team is to be competitive. The problem isn't that it's a blank check. The problem is that market rate seems like a blank check. Just think about the fact that Luck signed for 6 years/ $140 million/ $47 million guaranteed coming off a dismal season where he missed more than half the season. Where Von Miller, who isn't even a QB, just got $70 million in guaranteed dollars. That's the market. If the Saints choose not to pay it, some other team certainly will. If a fair deal for both can't be done for any reason, then you just have to deal with it and move on. I'm not panicking over this in the least. Life for Saints fans will go on with or without Brees' services and no one plays forever, anyway. I agree to a point. As long as there is a clear understanding that a fair deal for the player is going to have to near market rate, and that the guaranteed money will need to be upped in order to shorten the contract length. Brees isn't likely to get a Luck Type contract because few believe he'll be here 5 or 6 more years after 2016 to play. That's moving into George Blanda territory. Pretty much if a 3 year contract is on the table, then $70-$75 million is the number, and it'll likely have to be all (or nearly all) guaranteed. As for the money for the rest of the squad, Loomis has been playing the accounting game based on the fact that the cap is going to keep rising. Brees money hasn't kept the Saints from outlaying dollars to Byrd, or Fleener, or fixing Westbank's contract. And that cap is going to keep growing. In fact the Saints will likely save over $5 million on this year's cap if they get a deal done as Brees' cap hit is at $30 million. An extension can put $40 million in Brees pocket and lower the cap to under $25 million at the same time. Finally, be sure that stadium dollars are not the driving engine for paying the salaries of players. The vast bulk of the dollars are from TV contracts. And expect those contracts to keep pushing the cap, and player salaries because NFL football is like printing money for these networks and their advertisers. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

08-13-2016, 01:51 AM	#20
lee909 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Watford England Posts: 8,809 Blog Entries: 1	Re: Pay Brees! A three year $75ml is a fair deal,id be more than happy for the team to pay that. I could see it being that but maybe 4 years $100ml too. The man has to be one of the top paid QB People need to realise that a 40 year old man who has taken great care of his body today is not like a 40 year old man in 2000. Medical advances and sports recovery have taken massive leaps forward. Of course his arm strength may g slightly in the coming years but we saw o signs of it last year.Of course we would all love him to take a $20ml deal to give more cap space but that doesnt happen
	"Two receivers to the left, Garcon to the right. Manning in the shotgun, puts Collie in motion. Looks in his direction...it's picked off! It's picked off! It's Tracy Porter again! He's runnin' free! He's gonna go all the way!

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