AsylumGuido

History in football play means nothing. Zip. Zero. New players. New coaches. New opposition. New everything.

WillSaints81

I didn't read this thread since I posted it. And Rugby I felt you were being sarcastic in that email.'

Laugh all you want but that has been the way the seasons have played out under SP.

Now I put more umph into this on SR. The two 4-0 vs AFC seasons have resulted in, wait for it, 13-3!

The seasons where we avoided sweeps by division rivals had records of 13-3, 11-5, 13-3, 11-5...........interesting could 13-3 be next in a winning season?

The seasons where we won both swing games included records of 10-6, 13-3, 11-5, and 11-5.

Now I might be retracting on Buffalo. They appear to be bad this season before it starts. So I feel now, I might pick us to lose to Miami. But I looked more at this........

Miami plays against our strengths and to our weaknesses. Miami has a strong pass rushing tandem of Wake and Suh. And I honestly wonder if the oline will do enough to protect Brees here. The defense will be asked to shut down Cutler because Miami is good somewhat against the run. Once you get past the defensive front of Miami you can pick them apart. Well, you could last year.

This means if we lose to NE Carolina is a must-win week 3.

But if we start out 1-3.........

We beat Detroit but I am only picking a win because of rest
We lose at GB, but we could win here. It's just ridiculous to pick a win here.
We beat Chicago
Now comes the point of us going 4-4 or 3-5 like in 2012 after the bucs.
If 4-4, we get over the hump(unless we are stupid) and beat Buffalo. 5-4

Now let's look at 4-5 or 5-4 from here.
First is 4-5
Washington-if we are below. 500, this becomes a pressure game. We lose this we go 4-6 to continue the trend.
Then, we lose at LA to go 4-7
Then we beat Carolina to go 5-7
Then we lose to Atlanta to go 5-8
We beat the jets and falcons to go 7-8, and then lose to playoff bound bucs to go 7-9.

IF we beat Washington week 11 we are 5-5
That will help us against the rams, but I feel still records too close so loss, 5-6
We beat Carolina 6-6
Now we have the chance to get over .500 for the first time in a while by beating Atlanta. Do we do it? 7-6 or 6-7
We beat the jets, 8-6 or 7-7
If we win the first Atlanta game, we could lose this one as record is too close but we could see the playoffs by just trying to win out...9-6 or 8-7
Now we go to TB last game, and if we are 8-7 it won't cut it. If we are 9-6 we have a reason...8-8 or 10-6.

Now 5-4.............
Confidence finally being above .500, do we give it back away against Washington? 6-4 or 5-5
That win, if so, will possibly lead to a run so we win in LA if that's the case. We lose if we lose. 7-4 or 5-6
We beat Carolina, 8-4 or 6-6
We win in Atlanta with 8-4, too close if 6-6. 9-4, 7-6, or 6-7
We beat the jets, 10-4, 8-6, or 7-7.
We sweep Atlanta at 10-4 and it's possible with 8-6 but that can go either way. 11-4, 9-6, or 8-7.
At TB, we have a chance at a first round bye if 11-4, playoffs at 9-6, nothing at 8-7. 12-4, 10-6, or 8-8.

This also illustrates my point we just never go 9-7. If it isn't 7-9 or 8-8, it's 10-6-13-3.

Another note of interest. The bucs last year went 4-2 in division and the season before that 3-3. There has also been sweeps with TB and Carolina dating back to 2009. And Atlanta since 2012 has gone 5-1 or 1-5 in division.

So what does that mean? TB could sweep BOTH Atlanta and Carolina, which means if that happens they won't sweep us because no team has ever gone 6-0 in this division.

Atlanta going 1-5 in division and Carolina going 2-4(likely under that scenario) certainly helps our odds a lot.

So we need to beat NE or Carolina to avoid all of the questions.

WW_Who_Dat

Need serious help here!

UK_WhoDat

Nuff said

hagan714

I can accept a record of 2-2 going into week 5

Anything better I will be happy

1 - 3 all depends on how the saints played in those 3 losses.

0 - 4 is a hole seldom dig themselves out of no matter how well they played in those losses.

So many injuries last year and so many new faces for DA and SP. If we can get to week 8 healthy and playing at least .500 ball we should be sitting good. Once again stay healthy and the rotation down earl will speed up the gelling time

a lot of hand grenades and horse shoes before game 1 is even played

I t means that gel factor is well on its way and the saints should have a solid shot at closing out the season strong.

It is all about the month of December as always.

"We may have lost the game, but you'll be hurting tomorrow." Doug Atkins

WillSaints81

What because I am breaking down our perpetual repeating patterns or breaking out out of it? Sorry but we have sucked vs AFC and lost all of our swing games the last three years. We have also been swept by at least one division rival per season in this stage. Everything I put there is what has heppened to us every year like it or not. Patterns happen to tell a team's story. I believe numbers going in a certain direction are a real thing.

You seem to think the saints will do something different with these trends if nothing's changed. If it's another losing season it' could be the same thing as before. If it's a winning season the records will change in some of these scenarios if not all.

I break down football this way because wins can never be predicted based on certain on the field metrics alone. It's a team sport and games are won with the mind more than physicality.

burningmetal

Your analysis can be broken down much more quickly. We've been bad for three seasons in a row. That means we've been bad against MOST teams.

This naturally leads to what you call "trends", but in reality, the only trend is that we have three consecutive losing seasons. When you're good, your record goes up against everyone. If you had just one, MAYBE two things that stood out as glaring repeated occurrences, it might be more of a noteworthy discussion, but you gave so many different "trends" that they really all sort of negate themselves. It's called losing. This year, we hope to change that.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

RockyMountainSaint

Yeah,
I don't see the networks broadcasting anyone's season getting an Analyzation.

Maybe Skinemax can do a Hard Knocks kind of thing?

Crusader

This is the best point in the whole thread. Even with the exact same players you never play the same team twice. And we have had a lot of turnover the last couple of years. Not a ton of players left from the first 7-9 season three years ago, I think this year will be different, but not because of patterns and trends.

|Mitch|

Why don't you call and let Payton know? I'm sure he hasn't thought of nothing like this and apparently you know more than they do!