August 20, 2017:
The one thing that has me concerned is that there isn't much on the field noise to say we have improved, but it's preseason. The schedule is easier than last year however for not only last year's defense but for the offense. There are a few games though that should be easy but may not be easy. I am looking at week 1 and 2 big time.

The consensus is we will beat Minnesota because of AP, but is this really a guarantee? No. What is a guarantee is winning at least two games against the NFC North(because if we lose a third straight to Detroit at home off of a bye, we have problems). Numerically, we have been 2-2 or 3-1 against NFC divisions since Payton first arrived.......until last year. We were 4-0 last year. I expect two wins, but 3-1, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2 constitutes a jump if we don't beat Minnesota. But we want to start out 1-0 right?

Guaranteed loss vs NFC North:@Green Bay week 7

Now comes the toughest test........the AFC. We have just not been owning the AFC lately and I believe we beat Miami and NY. What happens week 2 will affect week 10. Week 2, we play the pats. This is more of a big game for Brees than week 1 at Minnesota. But does Payton understand this? Lately, saints tend to put on offensive displays against the wrong teams and fall flat the next week against the ones we should have taken more seriously. Five days rest following wins have been a detriment more than a benefit. We have not won MNF the last two seasons, but given week 12 and 13; week 1 and 2; week 6 and 7 of last year, we don't need to judge five days rest alone. The team simply performs poorly after a big game. This has nothing to do with defense being bad either as giants, lions, and chiefs were for the most part good defensive games. This is Payton's style of playing. His arrogance takes over when the purpose suits him. He does not seem to realize that this hurts the players. Playing big games on emotion was a pattern of 2006. Think of when we beat the eagles, and two weeks later we get crushed by the ravens. Yes, ravens were a top defense that year and we had issues off bye weeks then. Still, Carolina won in Baltimore those two weeks prior. Then we have a strong game in Pittsburgh we ultimately come out losing, and then we crap the bed at home against the bengals, nvm the fact Brees threw for over 500 yards. Dallas week 14 that season........a huge win that had people talking and finally considering us serious contenders for the SB. What happened after that week? 10 points against Washington. So this is nothing new it is a pattern that in 2009 began to dissipate, only to return in the losing seasons again. If the saints treat week 1 like a mini-super bowl, mark my words............

WE WILL COME OUT FLAT AT HOME AGAINST NEW ENGLAND

Here's something to consider, given we have not gone 3-1 against the AFC since 2008, and it would be a jump in this year's case, the likely scenario is continuing the back-and-forth records recently against the AFC which would be 2-2 this year. But we could pick up where we left off when we could beat the AFC. We went 4-0 in 2009 and 2011. This is considered to be a staple in our elite playoff run. If we are elite again, going 4-0 against the AFC could return. Since 2008, we have gone 4-0, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 1-3.

In this year's case for certain, 3-1 would get back in the sequence. From 2009-2012 we enjoyed back and forth records of 4-0 and 2-2. Then from 2013 to recently, we endured back and forth records of 2-2 and 1-3. Both of these lasted exactly four years. If there is a new process, the return of 4-0 to be mixed with 2-2 again. Or 2-2 to be mixed with perhaps 3-1. Next season we host Pittsburgh and Cleveland. We should beat Pittsburgh, but Cleveland is hard to predict. But we go on the road against Baltimore and Cincinnati. We have a better chance to win in Cincinnati than Baltimore. Still, it's not a lock and we run the risk of losing one to either them or Cleveland and even both. So I do not feel confident in 3-1 next season. So, I say 4-0 or we stay in the same 2-2, 1-3 pattern.

What would you prefer? winning for AP and going 3-1 against the NFC North over 2-2. Or winning a statement game against Tom Brady and BB and going 4-0 against the AFC East instead of 2-2? What has an extra win? the AFC East. And those extra wins MATTER. Could we beat both, sure? But our playcaller would certainly have to have a plan dialed up before the season to keep the offense out of fatigue mode. Because no matter what, it will take offense to win week 2.

Now let's not think about starting out 0-2. Forget about it. That means the season is over and 7-9 could rear its ugly head again. I think the continuing pattern improves by one win, assuming no division sweeps against us, and breaking past habits gives us an extra win that exponentially improves our playoff odds. But not if we start out 0-2 again.

Guaranteed losses if 2-2:New England, @Buffalo

Now let's think about the home game after a home game. This has been a problem for us of late.

Last year, we had one instance of back to back home games. And we already addressed this. We know what games we are talking about. In 2015, we had two home sets. The first was week 8 and 9. We win at home against the giants in a shootout and avoid OT, only to miss the FG against Tennessee to lose in OT. Tennessee shut our O down for two quarters as well, and it could be stemming from their adjustments on top of the 51 points we scored the previous week. And let's not forget, we scored too fast. Then week 15 against Detroit. We do nothing until the second half, so we were not really gassed out when playing Jacksonville five and a half days later. And then there is 2014, we never had any back to back home games other than one where we had three in a row and we lost all three. SF was one we should have won, and all that energy into losing that game brought a flat team to play Cincinnati, and in turn play a rested ravens team, who we might have won without all of the injuries. Simply put we back up a easy home win with lesser effort against someone who proves to be a bigger challenge. Week 8 against Chicago should be a win, but how we win that depends. Blowing out a team who has less fight in them does not perpare us well to do the same thing against Tampa Bay week 9, who will most certainly be a contrasting difference from Chicago. And this is where we break the 4-4 conundrum or continue it if we do not start out 0-2.

Do something these two weeks we have not done since 2013, win back to back home games against two tones of teams.

Now let's get to the most important game besides starting out 1-1. That is week 11 against Washington. If we lose to TB week 9 and find ourselves 4-4 again and then 4-5, this is the game that makes or breaks a 8-10 win season. Losing this game can compare to 2014's week 11 loss to the bengals and the miriad of head scratching offensive blunders we have had recently against certain teams. The experts are picking us to lose this game right now. They know the history and are using it. This is a game where we need to begin to start having some fight and stop playing the lost season card. No question Norman and the pass rush will be a challenge, but in a winning season with the same circumstances, we would play hard against that. And remember, winning a same place matchup has increased playoff odds to 50% under SP. This is even a issue if we beat NE and Buffalo, because we could fall to 5-5.

I don't really care to talk much about LA. This game is not won without Washington imo. We would be losing three in a row under the first scenario going into this and that is trouble. So we have a choice of 8-8, 9-7, or 10-6 really. Week 11 dictates this matchup if we lose. The second scenario helps, but I don't believe we have ever won a road game without a home game under SP.

Division games........we got swept by Atlanta last year and Carolina the year before. It's pretty conclusive we will not get swept by either this year. Which leaves TB.....they CAN sweep us if we give them week 9. But I don't think they are a lock to. Our 7-9 patterns have been because of getting swept by a division rival every year we miss the playoffs and losing the same place matchups. Breaking one of these patterns improves by a win; breaking both improves by two. If we have a winning record late in the season, we will have a chance at sweeping either Atlanta or Carolina. That could mean beating Carolina week 3 foreshadows a change. If we are below .500, I think we don't sweep either.

Guaranteed loss:at least one against TB and one against Atlanta or Carolina.

Again, 7-9 is the floor. the ceiling is 13-3. How? beating both Minnesota and NE to constitute 7 wins against two divisions; beating Washington and LA; and going 4-2 in division. Doing the first two would pretty much make this extremely possible. So I have to break down how wins could play out for the other two scenarios I pointed out.

Scenario A-beating Minnesota
7-9, same old same old losses
8-8, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
9-7, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
10-6, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta or Carolina
11-5, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice

Scenario B-beating New England and Buffalo
8-8, same old same old losses
9-7, avoiding a division sweep or beating Washington week 11
10-6, avoiding a division sweep and beating Washington week 11
11-5, the previous+beating LA week 12 or sweeping Atlanta of Carolina
12-4, the previous two actions, including beating both LA and Atlanta or Carolina twice.

So where does the first test begin? Week 3 @Carolina. Week 9 against TB if we lose that.

Now I pretty much just addressed this team's game patterns. If the team has improved then they will not find themselves 4-4 after week 9 more than likely. But the process I listed is in the order based on all of the losing seasons, non-playoff seasons, and playoff seasons.

September 9, 2017:
I didn't read this thread since I posted it. And Rugby I felt you were being sarcastic in that email.'

Laugh all you want but that has been the way the seasons have played out under SP.

Now I put more umph into this on SR. The two 4-0 vs AFC seasons have resulted in, wait for it, 13-3!

The seasons where we avoided sweeps by division rivals had records of 13-3, 11-5, 13-3, 11-5...........interesting could 13-3 be next in a winning season?

The seasons where we won both swing games included records of 10-6, 13-3, 11-5, and 11-5.

Now I might be retracting on Buffalo. They appear to be bad this season before it starts. So I feel now, I might pick us to lose to Miami. But I looked more at this........

Miami plays against our strengths and to our weaknesses. Miami has a strong pass rushing tandem of Wake and Suh. And I honestly wonder if the oline will do enough to protect Brees here. The defense will be asked to shut down Cutler because Miami is good somewhat against the run. Once you get past the defensive front of Miami you can pick them apart. Well, you could last year.

This means if we lose to NE Carolina is a must-win week 3.

But if we start out 1-3.........

We beat Detroit but I am only picking a win because of rest
We lose at GB, but we could win here. It's just ridiculous to pick a win here.
We beat Chicago
Now comes the point of us going 4-4 or 3-5 like in 2012 after the bucs.
If 4-4, we get over the hump(unless we are stupid) and beat Buffalo. 5-4

Now let's look at 4-5 or 5-4 from here.
First is 4-5
Washington-if we are below. 500, this becomes a pressure game. We lose this we go 4-6 to continue the trend.
Then, we lose at LA to go 4-7
Then we beat Carolina to go 5-7
Then we lose to Atlanta to go 5-8
We beat the jets and falcons to go 7-8, and then lose to playoff bound bucs to go 7-9.

IF we beat Washington week 11 we are 5-5
That will help us against the rams, but I feel still records too close so loss, 5-6
We beat Carolina 6-6
Now we have the chance to get over .500 for the first time in a while by beating Atlanta. Do we do it? 7-6 or 6-7
We beat the jets, 8-6 or 7-7
If we win the first Atlanta game, we could lose this one as record is too close but we could see the playoffs by just trying to win out...9-6 or 8-7
Now we go to TB last game, and if we are 8-7 it won't cut it. If we are 9-6 we have a reason...8-8 or 10-6.

Now 5-4.............
Confidence finally being above .500, do we give it back away against Washington? 6-4 or 5-5
That win, if so, will possibly lead to a run so we win in LA if that's the case. We lose if we lose. 7-4 or 5-6
We beat Carolina, 8-4 or 6-6
We win in Atlanta with 8-4, too close if 6-6. 9-4, 7-6, or 6-7
We beat the jets, 10-4, 8-6, or 7-7.
We sweep Atlanta at 10-4 and it's possible with 8-6 but that can go either way. 11-4, 9-6, or 8-7.
At TB, we have a chance at a first round bye if 11-4, playoffs at 9-6, nothing at 8-7. 12-4, 10-6, or 8-8.

This also illustrates my point we just never go 9-7. If it isn't 7-9 or 8-8, it's 10-6-13-3.

Another note of interest. The bucs last year went 4-2 in division and the season before that 3-3. There has also been sweeps with TB and Carolina dating back to 2009. And Atlanta since 2012 has gone 5-1 or 1-5 in division.

So what does that mean? TB could sweep BOTH Atlanta and Carolina, which means if that happens they won't sweep us because no team has ever gone 6-0 in this division.

Atlanta going 1-5 in division and Carolina going 2-4(likely under that scenario) certainly helps our odds a lot.

So we need to beat NE or Carolina to avoid all of the questions.

Just a brief reminder of how effective a prognosticator Will is. As he points out in my thread he can say whatever the **** he wants. However, it doesn't show that whatever he says isn't crap.

Yet after only losing 3 games, being 3-0 in the division, and sweeping the Kitties, he's back the day of the Kitties sweep on week 13 still projecting that the Saints have no chance of going 6-0 in the division because it's never happened before.

So just be careful not to get to get a whiff of whatever gets him to generate the massive tombs of discussion like the two below.

SFIAH

Will(Insert Team Name Here)81 has diarrhea of the fingers.

I say let him keep going. We have been winning ever since he started. No reason to stop now.