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A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; 2nd place has never been third the next year 3rd has never been first the next year 1st place finishers the next year 02 bucs-3rd 03 panthers-3rd 04 falcons-3rd 05 bucs-4th 06 saints-3rd 07 bucs-3rd 08 panthers-3rd 09 saints-2nd 10 ...

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Old 08-20-2013, 02:59 PM   #1
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A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

2nd place has never been third the next year
3rd has never been first the next year

1st place finishers the next year
02 bucs-3rd
03 panthers-3rd
04 falcons-3rd
05 bucs-4th
06 saints-3rd
07 bucs-3rd
08 panthers-3rd
09 saints-2nd
10 falcons-2nd
11 saints-3rd
12 falcons
Prediction--this trend is real and falcons are in for a regressing year, I say they finish third.

2nd place finishers
02 falcons-4th
03 saints-2nd
04 saints-4th
05 panthers-2nd
06 panthers-2nd
07 panthers-1st
08 falcons-2nd
09 falcons-1st
10 saints-1st
11 falcons-1st
12 panthers
Prediction-I think the panthers under these numbers win the division or stay second again.

Third place finishers
02 saints-2nd(bucs third, falcons fourth)
03 bucs-4th(panthers third, saints 2nd)
04 panthers-2nd(falcons third, saints fourth)
05 falcons-3rd(bucs fourth, panthers second)
06 falcons-4th(saints third, panthers second)
07 saints-4th(bucs third, panthers first)
08 bucs-4th(panthers third, falcons second)
09 panthers-4th(saints second, falcons first)
10 bucs-4th(falcons second, saints first)
11 panthers-2nd(saints third, falcons first)
12 saints
Prediction-If the trend continues of no third place team winning division, then saints are 2nd or 4th. Bad news if the bucs win division.

Fourth place finishers
02 panthers-1st
03 falcons-1st
04 bucs-1st
05 saints-1st
06 bucs-1st
07 falcons-2nd
08 saints-1st
09 bucs-3rd
10 panthers-3rd
11 bucs-4th
12 bucs
Prediction-4th, 1st, or 2nd. If Bucs are contending they will contend hard and end up first or second. If they fall off again, they will just collapse and end up last again.


So with those options we do it this way
Division winner's placement the previous year
03 panthers-4th
04 falcons-4th
05 bucs-4th
06 saints-4th
07 bucs-4th
08 panthers-2nd
09 saints-4th
10 falcons-2nd
11 saints-2nd
12 falcons-2nd
Prediction- Panthers were second last year, bucs were 4th. It really could go either way. 3rd has never been first and first has never repeated.

Second place finishers
03 saints-3rd
04 saints-2nd
05 panthers-3rd
06 panthers-2nd(4th place saints were 1st)
07 panthers-2nd(4th place bucs were 1st)
08 falcons-4th(panthers were 1st after three runner ups)
09 falcons-2nd(1st was last place saints)
10 saints-1st(first time first finishes runner up)
11 falcons-1st(2nd place saints was 1st)
12 panthers-3rd(2nd place falcons were first)
13 Prediction-Is 4th place exempt here or is it next for bucs. Third place saints could be here as well as 2nd place panthers. Again, a three way race here.

Third place finishers(just in case)
03 bucs-1st
04 panthers-1st
05 falcons-1st
06 falcons-3rd(2nd place panthers stayed second)
07 saints-1st(2nd place panthers stayed second)
08 bucs-1st
09 panthers-1st
10 bucs-4th(first time 4th finishes 3rd)
11 panthers-4th
12 saints-1st
13 Prediction-Appears this is 1st falcons

Fourth place finishers
03 falcons-2nd
04 bucs-3rd
05 saints-2nd
06 bucs-1st
07 falcons-3rd
08 saints-3rd
09 bucs-3rd
10 panthers-3rd
11 bucs-3rd
12 bucs-4th
13 Prediction-Until last year the third place was last for five straight years. Do bucs make it three straight in the cellar? 1st falcons is determined. Its 4th bucs or 3rd place saints from previous year.

I honestly hope its not the case but the first few weeks if we start out 2-2 with those three home games and lose at Chicago I'm preparing for it. This could be the year the power changes hands in the NFC South.

Usually the team that is leading after five weeks has won this division
Falcons start
Saints-loss
Rams-win
dolphins-win
Pats-loss
Jets-win
3-2

Panthers
Seahawks-loss
Bills-win
Giants-This is the game that will determine 1st or 2nd
Cards-win
3-1 or 2-2.

Saints
Falcons-win
Bucs-This game determines early leader
Cards-win
Dolphins-loss
Bears-The other game determining outcome
2-3, 3-2, or 4-1. I don't think we go 4-1 we lose to bucs or bears. Remember, we just swept them and they want revenge.

Bucs
Jets-This game as well determines if we sweep the pats/jets. If bucs get this expect a loss for us to pats.
Saints-This determines as well
Pats-loss
Cards-loss or win. Cards lose to us, they'll come out harder against bucs and can certainly get to Freeman. But Palmer hardly has weapons and has had his share of problems with Revis.
1-3, 2-2, or 3-1. I tend to think they get one of the home games.


Not being a downer but it can happen. Interesting season ahead.
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Old 08-20-2013, 03:26 PM   #2
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Uh...what? LoL
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Old 08-20-2013, 03:27 PM   #3
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

I remember when the end results in a division were based on how teams played that particular season. Those were the days. Haha
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Old 08-20-2013, 03:44 PM   #4
 
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Saints will go Five & EAUX to start the season.
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Old 08-20-2013, 03:49 PM   #5
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

I was told there would be no math
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Old 08-20-2013, 03:51 PM   #6
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

I have a headache.
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Old 08-20-2013, 04:14 PM   #7
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Well, the premise is discounting the fact that in the Sean Payton* Bounty* Wiretapping* Katrina Refs* Slippery Dome Turf* Cheating With Whistles* Continue To Touch And Affect The Head While We Secretly Tape Your Locker Room * era, in our division, we own the Falcons AND the Bucs.

In order for your mathimaticatin' to work, for the Bucs to win the division, the Bucs have to improve. And they have to improve against the Saints. Who just beat them and their new coach 41-0, and 35-28 (and even with the worst defense in the world, it wasn't even that close, the pathetic Bucs trailed for most of the game).

Basically, the truth is that, in recent years, if the Saints play the Bucs, the only way the Bucs ever win is if SOMETHING CRAYZEE HAPPENS. If it's both teams at equal strength, normal game, with Payton, the Saints win, and it's usually a blowout.

The Bucs recent wins against the Saints are:

- when coach broke his freaking leg on the sideline;
- a couple of games at the end of the season where Saints starters were pulled in various points of the game;
- and of course the crazy game in 2009 where Hartley missed in OT, and Benson danced like a fool thinking he'd made it. So see, something CRAYZEE has to happen for the Bucs to win.

But it was still obvious that in THAT game, we had the lead and Payton snapped the playbook shut, and the Saints spent the whole second half handing off to 3rd string running back Lynell Hamilton, nursing the lead, trying to not get anybody injured for the playoffs. The game wasn't "meaningless," per se, but it didn't ultimately affect the playoff standings any, and Payton knew it.

Every OTHER time these two teams have recently played, the games were Saints beatdowns, sometimes on the brink of being riots. It's one of the games I look forward to every year, where Payton really turns on the juice and lets it rip.

So the Bucs have a very uphill climb to get anywhere out of the cellar, much harder climb than the Saints, who have a history of performing well in division games as long as SOMETHING CRAYZEE doesn't happen.

Last edited by SaintsBro; 08-20-2013 at 04:18 PM..
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Old 08-20-2013, 06:23 PM   #8
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Originally Posted by RaginCajun83 View Post
I was told there would be no math
It's simple math though...............just keep adding seven.
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Old 08-20-2013, 09:57 PM   #9
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

Coincidence is not the same as a trend. There is absolutely no way to reliably discern what a team "will do", based on historic data.
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Old 08-20-2013, 11:13 PM   #10
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Re: A numbers game perspective on previous years NFC South finishers

my head hurts
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