The Deep QB Draft

AsylumGuido · 03-08-2021, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by neugey

This draft is deeper than just the ordained 5-6 QB's. There are other sleeper QB's out there (particularly Ian Book) and I have a feeling at least a few of those sleepers will hit and be solid NFL QB's.

Do you seriously think there are six or seven starting quality QB's in the draft? Historically there are seldom more than three or four that ever become full-time starters. Usually less than that. Of those three or four only one or two become what could be called "franchise QB's". Sure, there was the greatest draft class ever in 1983 with Marino, Elway, Kelly, and O'Brien. You can even throw in Tony Eason who started his share of games, but that an extremely rare year.

Next was probably 2004 with Rivers, Big Ben, and Eli. Matt Schaub would be the only other notable starter.

2005 may be the most starters with Rodgers, Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassell, Kyle Orton, and Jason Campbell. All spent time as regular starters, but only one or two were franchise quality in my book.

You probably have to go back to 1971 for the most impactful class with Ken Anderson, Jim Plunkett, Archie, Theismann, Lynn Dickey, and Dan Pastorini.

When Peyton was selected in 1998 the other starters were Matt Hasselbeck, Brian (not Bob) Griese, Charlie Batch, and Ryan Leaf.

This just puts things in perspective. Finding a true franchise QB can take decades. Even coming across what could be considered a quality starter is still very uncommon. It's not even that often that a good journeyman QB like Fitzpatrick comes around.

neugey · 03-08-2021, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Do you seriously think there are six or seven starting quality QB's in the draft? Historically there are seldom more than three or four that ever become full-time starters. Usually less than that. Of those three or four only one or two become what could be called "franchise QB's".

I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me.

AsylumGuido · 03-08-2021, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by neugey

I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me.

Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row.

TheOak · 03-09-2021, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row.

So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend?

AsylumGuido · 03-09-2021, 12:44 PM

Originally Posted by TheOak

So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend?

Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option.

TheOak · 03-10-2021, 08:20 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option.

There aren't even statistically slim rosy scenarios for the team and 2021 Guido, only a scenario that feeds your desires.

If Drew stays we are hit with $12.5M, if he leaves we are hit with $11.5M this year and next.

If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. If he stays with a less talented roster there is a higher probability he will get injured again.. We can rationalize his injuries in 2019 and 2020 as flukes but two flukes starts a trend and he is getting injured because either the line cant protect him or he cant protect himself anymore. Those rib fractures happened over time, not because he fell once.

It is time for a new dawn Guido whether you like it or not. We cant have any sort of quarterback discussion on these forums without you coming in and making Drew the center of the discussion. Nothing in what Smash posted is about Drew, he isn't even mentioned, I was hoping you would respond with something other than what you did.

Boston Saint · 03-10-2021, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by TheOak

If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell.

Not sure I agree with this Oak. In that playoff game they had an injured Thomas, no Hill, no Murray, no consistent WR behind Sanders, and no Harris after the first quarter. Looking back, Brees had no healthy, quality targets to throw to in that game outside of Sanders and Kamara. The only players lost so far are Easton (providing Ruiz continues to improve he’s expendable), Cook ( who cost the game IMO) and Hill (great blocker but easily replaceable in the pass game).

The team got hit with the injury bug late while Tampa got healthy at the right time aided by a late season bye. Loomis is doing his restructure work. Kamara, Thomas, and Oline quality will still be there in 2021. I don’t think there will be a massive talent drop off like you are predicting. We will see though.

K Major · 03-09-2021, 12:19 PM

Originally Posted by neugey

I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me.

I see what you're saying here on these guys …

For me, I simply believe Mac Jones will struggle at the NFL level. Decent arm, could make all the right throws but this was at Bama. A machine with clean pockets to throw out of. No one will be open in the NFL.

Mac better hope he is selected by a team with a decent to good O line. Otherwise, we could see Burrow (Cincy has the worst O line in football) part II and a torn ACL

. I think Kurt Cousins will be his ceiling at the NFL level in the right system.

No clue on Trevor or Fields but I think Mond is a career back up.

Personally, I hope we go CB, LB or O line at #28. Safer picks IMO.

SmashMouth · 03-16-2021, 03:09 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

I see what you're saying here on these guys …

For me, I simply believe Mac Jones will struggle at the NFL level. Decent arm, could make all the right throws but this was at Bama. A machine with clean pockets to throw out of. No one will be open in the NFL.

Mac better hope he is selected by a team with a decent to good O line. Otherwise, we could see Burrow (Cincy has the worst O line in football) part II and a torn ACL . I think Kurt Cousins will be his ceiling at the NFL level in the right system.

No clue on Trevor or Fields but I think Mond is a career back up.

Personally, I hope we go CB, LB or O line at #28. Safer picks IMO.

Sounds like Drew Brees clone?!?

K Major · 03-16-2021, 04:37 PM

Originally Posted by SmashMouth

Sounds like Drew Brees clone?!?

Lol.

#9 and #12 are rare breeds.

03-08-2021, 12:05 PM	#1
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,803	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by neugey This draft is deeper than just the ordained 5-6 QB's. There are other sleeper QB's out there (particularly Ian Book) and I have a feeling at least a few of those sleepers will hit and be solid NFL QB's. Do you seriously think there are six or seven starting quality QB's in the draft? Historically there are seldom more than three or four that ever become full-time starters. Usually less than that. Of those three or four only one or two become what could be called "franchise QB's". Sure, there was the greatest draft class ever in 1983 with Marino, Elway, Kelly, and O'Brien. You can even throw in Tony Eason who started his share of games, but that an extremely rare year. Next was probably 2004 with Rivers, Big Ben, and Eli. Matt Schaub would be the only other notable starter. 2005 may be the most starters with Rodgers, Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassell, Kyle Orton, and Jason Campbell. All spent time as regular starters, but only one or two were franchise quality in my book. You probably have to go back to 1971 for the most impactful class with Ken Anderson, Jim Plunkett, Archie, Theismann, Lynn Dickey, and Dan Pastorini. When Peyton was selected in 1998 the other starters were Matt Hasselbeck, Brian (not Bob) Griese, Charlie Batch, and Ryan Leaf. This just puts things in perspective. Finding a true franchise QB can take decades. Even coming across what could be considered a quality starter is still very uncommon. It's not even that often that a good journeyman QB like Fitzpatrick comes around. Euphoria and SaintGnome like this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-08-2021, 05:10 PM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,803	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by neugey I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me. Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row.

03-09-2021, 12:03 PM	#4
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,056	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row. So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend?

03-09-2021, 12:44 PM	#5
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,803	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by TheOak So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend? Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option.

03-10-2021, 08:20 AM	#6
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,056	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option. There aren't even statistically slim rosy scenarios for the team and 2021 Guido, only a scenario that feeds your desires. If Drew stays we are hit with $12.5M, if he leaves we are hit with $11.5M this year and next. If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. If he stays with a less talented roster there is a higher probability he will get injured again.. We can rationalize his injuries in 2019 and 2020 as flukes but two flukes starts a trend and he is getting injured because either the line cant protect him or he cant protect himself anymore. Those rib fractures happened over time, not because he fell once. It is time for a new dawn Guido whether you like it or not. We cant have any sort of quarterback discussion on these forums without you coming in and making Drew the center of the discussion. Nothing in what Smash posted is about Drew, he isn't even mentioned, I was hoping you would respond with something other than what you did. jnormand and SmashMouth like this.
	It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau

03-08-2021, 05:02 PM	#2
neugey Hu Dat! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,879 Blog Entries: 13	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Do you seriously think there are six or seven starting quality QB's in the draft? Historically there are seldom more than three or four that ever become full-time starters. Usually less than that. Of those three or four only one or two become what could be called "franchise QB's". I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me.

03-10-2021, 08:42 AM	#7
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by TheOak If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. Not sure I agree with this Oak. In that playoff game they had an injured Thomas, no Hill, no Murray, no consistent WR behind Sanders, and no Harris after the first quarter. Looking back, Brees had no healthy, quality targets to throw to in that game outside of Sanders and Kamara. The only players lost so far are Easton (providing Ruiz continues to improve he’s expendable), Cook ( who cost the game IMO) and Hill (great blocker but easily replaceable in the pass game). The team got hit with the injury bug late while Tampa got healthy at the right time aided by a late season bye. Loomis is doing his restructure work. Kamara, Thomas, and Oline quality will still be there in 2021. I don’t think there will be a massive talent drop off like you are predicting. We will see though.
	You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

03-09-2021, 12:19 PM	#8
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,853 Blog Entries: 3	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by neugey I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me. I see what you're saying here on these guys … For me, I simply believe Mac Jones will struggle at the NFL level. Decent arm, could make all the right throws but this was at Bama. A machine with clean pockets to throw out of. No one will be open in the NFL. Mac better hope he is selected by a team with a decent to good O line. Otherwise, we could see Burrow (Cincy has the worst O line in football) part II and a torn ACL . I think Kurt Cousins will be his ceiling at the NFL level in the right system. No clue on Trevor or Fields but I think Mond is a career back up. Personally, I hope we go CB, LB or O line at #28. Safer picks IMO.

03-16-2021, 03:09 PM	#9
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 39,063 Blog Entries: 29	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by K Major I see what you're saying here on these guys … For me, I simply believe Mac Jones will struggle at the NFL level. Decent arm, could make all the right throws but this was at Bama. A machine with clean pockets to throw out of. No one will be open in the NFL. Mac better hope he is selected by a team with a decent to good O line. Otherwise, we could see Burrow (Cincy has the worst O line in football) part II and a torn ACL . I think Kurt Cousins will be his ceiling at the NFL level in the right system. No clue on Trevor or Fields but I think Mond is a career back up. Personally, I hope we go CB, LB or O line at #28. Safer picks IMO. Sounds like Drew Brees clone?!?

03-16-2021, 04:37 PM	#10
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,853 Blog Entries: 3	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by SmashMouth Sounds like Drew Brees clone?!? Lol. #9 and #12 are rare breeds.