Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I was referring to Brandin Cooks.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

https://media.giphy.com/media/a93jwI0wkWTQs/giphy.gif

My bad; Cooks missed six (6) games his rookie year, but he played in 16 and 16 games his remaining seasons with the Saints...

He was great until he got frustrated with his decreased targets as we were no longer able to get the downfield air yards we did his rookie season...


ProFootball Reference | WR Brandin Cooks

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I think you read that wrong. The numbers show that only 2/3rd's of players drafted in the first round even end up starting at least half the games IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER, not in their first year as a rookie. That means they are unable to beat out someone else on the roster at any point in their career. That's why I call it an inexact science. You base the decision on everything you have at hand. Even the very best of talent evaluators cannot predict what will happen in every case. Some players simply never meet their expectations for one reason or another.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

No doubt many of those that end up not being a success do start their rookie year. But nobody knows for certain if they'll be successful in the long run. Who knows, they may have a career as a platoon player or a backup. But, you are correct, approximately one third of first round draft choices by that definition fail. If there is some secret formula to avoid that it has yet to be found. The very best talent evaluators select players that do not become a success. You seem to expect perfection in the drafting process. That is unobtainable as there are humans involved in every aspect of the process. Teams and players are destined to fail to a certain degree.

I have a sneaking suspicion that you have a record of all first rounders that you would have picked. ;) I'd be curious as to how many of those started at least 50% of all games since they have been in the league. You may beat the average success rate. Or not.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I agree.

Wirfs, Chase Young, Simmons, Kinlaw, DBrown etc were thrown into the fire early in 2020 … as 1st rounders, they should be.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

Saying a first round rookie should start his first year is different than the percentages Guido was referencing about career starting.

I would say it depends a bit on position and team demands on weather or not a rookie starts his first year and it should. QB for example. Chiefs didn’t fail with Mahomes and Packers didn’t fail with Rodgers and neither one started rookie season. Tampa could easily draft a development player this year that isn’t a starter for most games. Heck, look at Chris’s mock draft. If the falcons draft Chase this year he won’t be a starter over Julio or Ridley. A team might know they have a star at any position who is due a big payday in two seasons, but the have the chance to draft his replacement this year. That draftee won’t start.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

True, Boston. But I'm not only saying that. I agree with both Major and JP in that one would expect first rounders, other than QB's or others in some cases, to be a starter right away. What I am pointing out is that this is not always the case due to unforeseen circumstances (injury, legal, underperformance' better performance elsewhere). And I am also pointing out that they may not turn out to be starter material after being given the opportunity. It happens frequently. THAT is the reason behind it being an inexact science. Nobody can know with 100% certainty that any rookie will be a success. Nobody. Nada.

Re: Voluntary Workouts
 

I agree. They should be thrown in there and they usually are. But historically one in three do not succeed as a starter once given the chance. It happens not because the persons making the pick are incompetent, or because the coaching is incompetent. Its happens because nobody can predict with complete certainty how a 20 year old kid is going to adjust in a game of grown assed men regardless of how much talent or physical ability that kid might have.