BakoSaint

There is a common narrative that we 'kept the wrong kicker' but I would like to challenge that.

Yes, when you first look at the stats Grupe has missed 5 field goals and Lutz has only missed 2 but when you look closer, its much more complicated than that.

Lutz also missed an extra point, which should be worse, in terms of kicking ability/consistency.

Grupe has 23 field goal attempts on the season and Lutz has 15, so if Lutz has missed 2 of 15 he is on pace to miss 3 of 23, plus the extra point, so before you even look at distance, Lutz is up to 4 misses on an equivalent of Grupe's usage and accounting for extra points.

Lutz has rarely been used from even 40 yards out all season. He is being used mostly for chip shots. Lutz is 2 of 3 from 40+ yards this season. Grupe is 8 of 12 from 40+ which is the same ratio as 2 of 3. They are the same percentage on long kicks, even though Lutz gets to kick in thin rocky mountain mile high air. Heck, Lutz is 2 of 3 from 36+ because his 4th longest attempt on the season was from 35 yards. Just Grupe has been asked to attempt 4x as many long kicks racking up 4x as many misses on those kicks. With Lutz incredibly sparse usage from 36+, and Denver's thin air, you also have to wonder if he is having issues with range in practice.

Lutz has only 2 games this season where his longest field goal made exceeded 32 yards. Grupe has 6.

All of Lutz's missed field goals and extra points have come within the division in the most critical games. None of Grupe's have.

Inside 40, Grupe is 10 of 11 on field goals and 19 of 19 on extra points. Lutz is 11 of 12 on field goals and 15 of 16 on extra points. So basically from shorter range they are performing about the same.

I have to think offensive line plays some role in kicking. The same line that blocks for the QB has to protect the kicker. Also a team with more confidence in its oline doesn't have to 'rush things' as much and can provide the kicker a better hold, better placement of laces, and let them go through their motions with less worries on their mind. Its hard to find absolutely up to date oline rankings but on one list I found from week 6, Denver's oline was ranked 7 and New Orleans was ranked 23.

Yes, Grupe has missed kicks in close games. But 7 of our 9 games have been close so wtf do you expect? Both Grupe and Lutz have 1 game where their misses accounted for the the margin of defeat in a loss. But Lutz's led to a division loss.

Grupe is younger, cheaper, and healthier. We got a pick for Lutz. Lutz is not kicking better than Grupe this season. Lutz has the salary, protection, and thin air that should be letting him kick better. Lutz has effectively missed 3 kicks while only being asked to attempt 3 kicks from 40+ and while kicking 11 less times than Grupe. Lutz is not playing better. They are playing about the same and its just hidden because of Lutz' usage. For the same level of play, I would go with the younger, cheaper, healthier player. There may be upgrades out there, but they are not Lutz.