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this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Alvin Kamara is 29 years old. Lets take a factual look at some other great historic running backs and saints running backs and how they faired in rushing yardage (as a simply proxy) from age 25-29 and then age 30-34 ...
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09-23-2024, 09:04 PM | #171 |
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Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
Alvin Kamara is 29 years old. Lets take a factual look at some other great historic running backs and saints running backs and how they faired in rushing yardage (as a simply proxy) from age 25-29 and then age 30-34 to get an idea of projected decline:
Alvin Kamara: 25-29: 932, 898, 897, 694, TBD 30-34: TBD Marshall Faulk: 25-29: 1319, 1381, 1359, 1382, 953 30-34: 818, 774, 292, retired. Ladanian Tomlinson: 25-29: 1335, 1462, 1815, 1474, 1110 30-34: 730, 914, 280, retired. Adrian Peterson: 25-29: 1298, 970, 2097, 1266, 75(inj) 30-34: 1485, 72(inj), 529, 1042, 898 Edgerrin James: 25-29: 1259, 1548, 1506, 1159, 1222 30-34: 514, 125, retired Shaun Alexander: 25-29: 1175, 1435, 1696, 1880, 896 30-34: 716, 24, retired Jamal Charles: 25-29: 83(inj), 1509, 1287, 1033, 364 30-34: 40, 296, 7, retired Lesean McCoy: 25-29: 1607, 1319, 895, 1267, 1138 30-34: 514, 465, 31, retired Leveon Bell: 25-29: 1291, held out, 789, 328, 101 30-34: retired Ricky Williams: 25-29: 1853, 1372, took year off, 743, suspended 30-34: 15, 659, 1121, 673, 444 Deuce McAllister: 25-29: 1654, 1074, 335(inj), 1057, 92 30-34: 418, retired Reggie Bush: 25-29: 150(inj), 1086, 986, 1006, 297 30-34: 28, -3, retired Mark Ingram II: 25-29: 964, 769, 1043, 1124, 645 30-34: 1018, 299, 554, 233, retired Marshawn Lynch: 25-29: 1204, 1590, 1257, 1306, 417 30-34: took year off, 891, 376, 34, retired Thurman Thomas: 25-29: 1407, 1487, 1315, 1093, 1005 30-34: 1033, 643, 381, 152, 136 Barry Sanders: 25-29: 1115, 1883, 1500, 1553, 2053 30-34: 1491 with lowest yards per carry in 6 years by large margin, timed it perfect based on stats and retired. There are some rare exceptions: Curtis Martin: 25-29: 1287, 1464, 1204, 1513, 1094 30-34: 1308, 1697, 735 (w/ 3.3ypc), retired Frank Gore: 25-29: 1036, 1120, 853, 1211, 1214 30-34: 1128, 1106, 967, 1025, 961 Emmitt Smith: 25-29: 1484, 1773, 1204, 1074, 1332 30-34: 1397, 1203, 1021, 975, 256 The most receiving yards any of these three exceptions had in a year after turning 30 was 277. The exceptions seem to be more of the bell cow RB type who are able to sustain above averageness by knowing the system and vision and such, not runners who rely on separation and burst. I think realistically both the Saints and 49ers would be smart to realize that as brilliant as CMC and Kamara have been in the past, maybe having talent comperable to LaDanian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, and Edgerrin James brilliant careers, all those players declined a great deal after turning 30, and it is highly likely Kamara and CMC will too. It will not be a shock if Kamara has a good year at 29, but the odds have to be about 75% that he will decline greatly if they try to give him big money for year 31. Pay da man means ignore the stats and history. |
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09-24-2024, 12:52 AM | #172 |
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Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your thoughts on signing Kamara Bako, but Here is another data point to add to your evaluation.
You show stats for years 25-29 of these backs' careers I believe. I just went through the first 5 backs on your list (plus Kamara) and came up with the following according to pro football reference. If you look at their career stats while listed ages 25-29 you will notice that the number of games played for the first six guys listed ranges from 58 for Petersen to 79 for LT. I decided to break it down to each back's workload per 17 game season they would have played from ages 25-29. When you combine rushing attempts and passes targeted you will see that, per season from ages 25-29, these backs had combined rushing and receiving touches of: E James 435/season LT 434/season Faulk 420/season Shaun A 418/season AP 393/season Kamara 357/season I didn't go any further cause I'm lazy, but I think it's demonstrable that Kamara has had less abuse on his body during this age stage of his career than at least many of these backs did. That also does not include his natural style to avoid hard contact at the end of runs when not needed. Just food for thought. Edit...I decided to look at McCaffrey as well. He's not 29 yet. But in his last 6 seasons he's played 75 games. He's had 384 combined touches per 17 game season, so more than Kamara; and has had a major injury. |
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09-24-2024, 09:48 AM | #173 |
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Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
I see your argument but a 350 to 420 touch ratio is a 5:6 ratio so perhaps that buys an extra year or so at most, maybe 2 if you stretch it back to college. That still makes a new contract at 30 a tough sell. Plus if you look at the runners who i know had less usage like williams with his suspensions and temporary retirement, and reggie and ingram with their splitting time, and bell with his holdout, none of them lasted longer. Also I would say some of these other backs avoided hits. Yet if we look at the 3 who lasted longest it would be martin, smith, and gore, who were not low workload or avoiding hits so much. CMC is probably the worse bet. Also I am not saying its impossible that Kamara will be productive ages 30-32. But I think if you try to replace a RB who was successful at year 29 with a competition of two rookies, your odds of success will be better than hoping you have Emmitt Smith, and your cost will definitely be lower.
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09-27-2024, 01:54 PM | #174 |
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Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
Once a thug.... always a thug. The thug will get no praise from this keyboard. cut bait
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10-23-2024, 08:07 AM | #175 |
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Re: Alvin Kamara Says He Wants To Retire With The New Orleans Saints
Originally Posted by saintsfan1976
https://www.si.com/nfl/saints/news/w...s-a-smart-move
Alvin Kamara has signed a two-year contract extension worth $24.5 million, ensuring his continued presence with the Saints franchise. The All-Pro running back will receive a $15.5 million signing bonus and $22.3 million in guaranteed money. Saves 18 MM in 2025 |
10-23-2024, 11:58 AM | #176 |
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Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
Love Kamara as a player. But he's just a complimentary player at this point. Not worth the money and it just adds to the future cap and dead money. Allen and Loomis need to be fired.
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10-23-2024, 01:43 PM | #177 |
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Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
2024 Saints TDs 20
7 - Kamara 3 - Shaheed 2- Moreau 2 - Hill 1 - Johnson 1 - Olave 1 - Williams 1 - Carr 1 - Wilson 1 - Means In contrast to other RBs he is not worth the money. To Dennis Allen (this is where we get into personal drivers) he might be the only thing between Dennis and a rope. There is probably an argument for Kamara that is similar to Taysom, defenses have to account for them and that helps other players. |
10-23-2024, 02:44 PM | #178 |
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Re: Alvin Kamara Says He Wants To Retire With The New Orleans Saints
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10-23-2024, 06:17 PM | #179 |
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Re: ALVIN KAMARA posts cryptic messages on social media amid contract saga
Originally Posted by TheOak
The timing and the contract details tell me Kamara had all the leverage. And as the trade deadline approached, he used it.
Is Lattimore next in line for a 2 year extension, now that Adebo has likely played his last game in New Orleans? |