Anyone who thought that the holdup was rookie contracts are whatever are operating with flawed assumptions. The two flawed assumptions that I've consistently seen over the last 6 months:

1. That this is some type of restructure that the team controls. It's not. It's a negotiation for a new contract. It's just that the Saints can do the extension now because Brees is under contract until next March. After that all bets are off.

2. That Brees is going to see this from a Saints Fan perspective. So somehow the option of accepting a low ball offer, or that there's no way he's going to play elsewhere are part of the equation. This is going to be Brees' last major contract. Up until this moment he is playing at an elite level. He is worth every penny of market value and has 10+ years of Hall of Fame level evidence to show for it.

There is nothing easy about this. Brees' last contract was $100 million, $60 million guaranteed. We all see the $30 million cap number for this year as the residual of that contract. The next one is going to average $25 million a year with much of it guaranteed. That's a tough pill to swallow for the Saints.



The problem isn't that it's a blank check. The problem is that market rate seems like a blank check. Just think about the fact that Luck signed for 6 years/ $140 million/ $47 million guaranteed coming off a dismal season where he missed more than half the season. Where Von Miller, who isn't even a QB, just got $70 million in guaranteed dollars. That's the market. If the Saints choose not to pay it, some other team certainly will.


I agree to a point. As long as there is a clear understanding that a fair deal for the player is going to have to near market rate, and that the guaranteed money will need to be upped in order to shorten the contract length. Brees isn't likely to get a Luck Type contract because few believe he'll be here 5 or 6 more years after 2016 to play. That's moving into George Blanda territory. Pretty much if a 3 year contract is on the table, then $70-$75 million is the number, and it'll likely have to be all (or nearly all) guaranteed.

As for the money for the rest of the squad, Loomis has been playing the accounting game based on the fact that the cap is going to keep rising. Brees money hasn't kept the Saints from outlaying dollars to Byrd, or Fleener, or fixing Westbank's contract. And that cap is going to keep growing. In fact the Saints will likely save over $5 million on this year's cap if they get a deal done as Brees' cap hit is at $30 million. An extension can put $40 million in Brees pocket and lower the cap to under $25 million at the same time.

Finally, be sure that stadium dollars are not the driving engine for paying the salaries of players. The vast bulk of the dollars are from TV contracts. And expect those contracts to keep pushing the cap, and player salaries because NFL football is like printing money for these networks and their advertisers.

SFIAH

I'm well aware of market value. It's been discussed for years and years, and is a secret to no one, at this point. But market "value" is mostly a residual consequence of teams being desperate and over paying. Once they over pay, the bar is set. And when that happens every decent QB, not just the elite, want to negotiate at or above that number, because the precedent is already set that teams will do anything to have stability at the QB position.

Neither Drew nor any other of these guys with 100 million plus contracts have actually "earned" that money. Nothing they do is that important when you compare it to other jobs around the world.

I just want to make sure and point out that there are 32 teams with like 60 players each so that means that there are roughly 2,000 people in the entire world that can play in the NFL. Show me another job where only 2000 people in the entire world can do it. By the way, being one of those 2000 means you work very hard. So you decide which jobs deserve which money...I see, you're the smartest guy in the room and you will decide verse say the marketplace.

I just want to make sure and point out that there are 32 teams with like 60 players each so that means that there are roughly 2,000 people in the entire world that can play in the NFL. Show me another job where only 2000 people in the entire world can do it. By the way, being one of those 2000 means you work very hard. So you decide which jobs deserve which money...I see, you're the smartest guy in the room and you will decide verse say the marketplace.

I'm well aware of market value. It's been discussed for years and years, and is a secret to no one, at this point. But market "value" is mostly a residual consequence of teams being desperate and over paying. Once they over pay, the bar is set. And when that happens every decent QB, not just the elite, want to negotiate at or above that number, because the precedent is already set that teams will do anything to have stability at the QB position.

Neither Drew nor any other of these guys with 100 million plus contracts have actually "earned" that money. Nothing they do is that important when you compare it to other jobs around the world. So I get highly annoyed by this idea that the team owes Drew something extra because market value has risen since his last deal. They don't owe him anything, he has made plenty. But I get it from his perspective that he can't just take a low ball offer when he could make more elsewhere. So I'm not gonna toilet paper his house if he should leave. It's business. But the Saints have to be reasonable. They can't pay a guy his age like he's 25.

I hear what you are saying about the cap rising, and I have heard that many times from people defending Loomis' tactics. You mentioned a couple players whom the team has signed, but the problem is it's always just a player here, and a player there, each year. I'll admit that I wanted Byrd before he came here, but when I actually saw the contract I was blown away. It was extremely ill-advised to put that much into one player with as many problems as they needed to address on defense.

There never seems to be enough money to go around in free agency. And when they do sign people, it's usually a bad move. I think they over paid for Fleener, for example, but that's just my opinion. It's hard to build through the draft alone. There are so many busts. You need to have a few proven commodities. Many of the key players who were on the '09 team were not drafted by the Saints.

For the past several years Loomis has been deferring money, which has only served to keep the team out of the penalty. I don't consider that very smart business.

After all of that there is the one major fact that you are missing out on. Brees' age has NOTHING to do with his value. As long as he is producing as good as any 25 year old in the league why shouldn't he be paid like one? Hell, he is better than EVERY 25 year old in the league and has shown no indication that he will not still be out-performing them three or four years from now.

I'm well aware of market value. It's been discussed for years and years, and is a secret to no one, at this point. But market "value" is mostly a residual consequence of teams being desperate and over paying. Once they over pay, the bar is set. And when that happens every decent QB, not just the elite, want to negotiate at or above that number, because the precedent is already set that teams will do anything to have stability at the QB position.

Neither Drew nor any other of these guys with 100 million plus contracts have actually "earned" that money. Nothing they do is that important when you compare it to other jobs around the world. So I get highly annoyed by this idea that the team owes Drew something extra because market value has risen since his last deal. They don't owe him anything, he has made plenty. But I get it from his perspective that he can't just take a low ball offer when he could make more elsewhere. So I'm not gonna toilet paper his house if he should leave. It's business. But the Saints have to be reasonable. They can't pay a guy his age like he's 25.

I hear what you are saying about the cap rising, and I have heard that many times from people defending Loomis' tactics. You mentioned a couple players whom the team has signed, but the problem is it's always just a player here, and a player there, each year. I'll admit that I wanted Byrd before he came here, but when I actually saw the contract I was blown away. It was extremely ill-advised to put that much into one player with as many problems as they needed to address on defense.

There never seems to be enough money to go around in free agency. And when they do sign people, it's usually a bad move. I think they over paid for Fleener, for example, but that's just my opinion. It's hard to build through the draft alone. There are so many busts. You need to have a few proven commodities. Many of the key players who were on the '09 team were not drafted by the Saints.

For the past several years Loomis has been deferring money, which has only served to keep the team out of the penalty. I don't consider that very smart business.

I know there are other responses that match this. I thought I had posted this before I left out. Posting anyway.



That coupled with the available pool of money is what defined the market.


I disagree about "earned". The value of any good or service is strictly defined by what people are willing to pay for it. It's the reason that the highest paid employee in virtually every state government is the high-profile football coach.

Brees does a job in a nearly $14 billion a year market that has less than 10,000 employees at a level that less than 5 people on this planet can do. Now is it fair that the NFL has that market size? Probably not. But has Brees earned his share of the market? Absolutely.

And you are asking the correct question. You have a guy that is far outproducing all the 25 year olds that are getting paid more than he is. The desperate teams in the market will pay to get the type of stability we've had at the QB position for the last decade.


So that's the value choice that each and every GM has to make. The system is set up with cost controls for the first 5 years of the contract after the draft and an open market afterwords. Players who are extremely productive before free agency build a potential value that can be tapped on the second contract. Teams always make the value proposition that the production will continue and match the value of the dollars. Sometimes it works (Brees, Jordan, Ingram) and sometimes it doesn't (Byrd, Gallette, up until now Spiller). And the Saints will have make more of these choices in the future (Cooks, Breaux). And sometimes I think the team just takes a flyer where the value of the contract doesn't match the previous production and there is a hope that the future production will in fact pan out. As of today I put Fleener in that category.

Deferring the money is the teams hedge against bad decisions in theory. All organizations are only on the hook for guaranteed money. So pushing a chunk of money in the future allows for further evaluation into the next contract as to make decision of whether to continue to pay or not.

It has to be balanced against players wanting their money up front. The NFL is the only pro league that has deferred non guaranteed contracts. When Lebron signed his 3 year $100 million contract this month, he's going to get that money whether or not he ever steps foot on the court for Cleveland ever again. It's all guaranteed. You can see the failures of that model with Kobe as an example. His last contract paid him I believe $24 million/year over a number of years, many of which he simply did not play. That contract in the NFL would be structured as up front guaranteed money, bonus payments contingent on being on the team, and unguaranteed salary, which simply isn't paid when the player is cut.

We'll see a sample of this with Byrd next year. He'll either restructure, or he will be cut because it'll cost the team more to keep him than to cut him.

But at the end of the day, this is the chess match of the NFL. Teams like the Patriots tend to cut most of their high profile people the year before they come into big money and continue their success with getting and developing young talent. Other clubs are a continual string of poor choices. The Saints have been hit and miss. But understand it's rare that someone becomes a Hall of Famer with their second or third club. Brees has been nothing but money since 2006. So my opinion is that the title of this thread is absolutely correct.

SFIAH