Pay Brees!

SaintFanInATLHELL · 08-13-2016, 12:37 AM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

I'm not going to predict when or if he signs, or for how much money. I can take a somewhat educated guess just like everyone else on this board. But I'm frankly not interested in playing that game.

All I know is there were a couple of people in particular who had it all figured out before the draft (so they thought) which sparked several debates about what the real reason was for the delay in getting a deal done. Enough time has passed since then for me to declare that those people knew as much as I thought they did. Which is to say, not much. I wouldn't make that statement about someone who was just giving an opinion. But when you state something as if you have inside info, you better be right.

This doesn't mean Drew won't still sign. But there is clearly a lot more to the negotiations than just waiting on the draft picks to sign (considering they all signed a long time ago). I never agreed with that notion, but I couldn't have told you for sure what was going to happen. With the rookies contracts being capped, it didn't make sense to me for the team to wait on that.

Anyone who thought that the holdup was rookie contracts are whatever are operating with flawed assumptions. The two flawed assumptions that I've consistently seen over the last 6 months:

1. That this is some type of restructure that the team controls. It's not. It's a negotiation for a new contract. It's just that the Saints can do the extension now because Brees is under contract until next March. After that all bets are off.

2. That Brees is going to see this from a Saints Fan perspective. So somehow the option of accepting a low ball offer, or that there's no way he's going to play elsewhere are part of the equation. This is going to be Brees' last major contract. Up until this moment he is playing at an elite level. He is worth every penny of market value and has 10+ years of Hall of Fame level evidence to show for it.

There is nothing easy about this. Brees' last contract was $100 million, $60 million guaranteed. We all see the $30 million cap number for this year as the residual of that contract. The next one is going to average $25 million a year with much of it guaranteed. That's a tough pill to swallow for the Saints.

We all want to see Drew stay, but I maintain that we can't just write this guy a blank check, essentially, just because of who he is. There still has to be some give and take on both sides if this team is to be competitive.

The problem isn't that it's a blank check. The problem is that market rate seems like a blank check. Just think about the fact that Luck signed for 6 years/ $140 million/ $47 million guaranteed coming off a dismal season where he missed more than half the season. Where Von Miller, who isn't even a QB, just got $70 million in guaranteed dollars. That's the market. If the Saints choose not to pay it, some other team certainly will.

If a fair deal for both can't be done for any reason, then you just have to deal with it and move on. I'm not panicking over this in the least. Life for Saints fans will go on with or without Brees' services and no one plays forever, anyway.

I agree to a point. As long as there is a clear understanding that a fair deal for the player is going to have to near market rate, and that the guaranteed money will need to be upped in order to shorten the contract length. Brees isn't likely to get a Luck Type contract because few believe he'll be here 5 or 6 more years after 2016 to play. That's moving into George Blanda territory. Pretty much if a 3 year contract is on the table, then $70-$75 million is the number, and it'll likely have to be all (or nearly all) guaranteed.

As for the money for the rest of the squad, Loomis has been playing the accounting game based on the fact that the cap is going to keep rising. Brees money hasn't kept the Saints from outlaying dollars to Byrd, or Fleener, or fixing Westbank's contract. And that cap is going to keep growing. In fact the Saints will likely save over $5 million on this year's cap if they get a deal done as Brees' cap hit is at $30 million. An extension can put $40 million in Brees pocket and lower the cap to under $25 million at the same time.

Finally, be sure that stadium dollars are not the driving engine for paying the salaries of players. The vast bulk of the dollars are from TV contracts. And expect those contracts to keep pushing the cap, and player salaries because NFL football is like printing money for these networks and their advertisers.

SFIAH

08-13-2016, 12:37 AM	#11
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,783	Re: Pay Brees! Originally Posted by burningmetal I'm not going to predict when or if he signs, or for how much money. I can take a somewhat educated guess just like everyone else on this board. But I'm frankly not interested in playing that game. All I know is there were a couple of people in particular who had it all figured out before the draft (so they thought) which sparked several debates about what the real reason was for the delay in getting a deal done. Enough time has passed since then for me to declare that those people knew as much as I thought they did. Which is to say, not much. I wouldn't make that statement about someone who was just giving an opinion. But when you state something as if you have inside info, you better be right. This doesn't mean Drew won't still sign. But there is clearly a lot more to the negotiations than just waiting on the draft picks to sign (considering they all signed a long time ago). I never agreed with that notion, but I couldn't have told you for sure what was going to happen. With the rookies contracts being capped, it didn't make sense to me for the team to wait on that. Anyone who thought that the holdup was rookie contracts are whatever are operating with flawed assumptions. The two flawed assumptions that I've consistently seen over the last 6 months: 1. That this is some type of restructure that the team controls. It's not. It's a negotiation for a new contract. It's just that the Saints can do the extension now because Brees is under contract until next March. After that all bets are off. 2. That Brees is going to see this from a Saints Fan perspective. So somehow the option of accepting a low ball offer, or that there's no way he's going to play elsewhere are part of the equation. This is going to be Brees' last major contract. Up until this moment he is playing at an elite level. He is worth every penny of market value and has 10+ years of Hall of Fame level evidence to show for it. There is nothing easy about this. Brees' last contract was $100 million, $60 million guaranteed. We all see the $30 million cap number for this year as the residual of that contract. The next one is going to average $25 million a year with much of it guaranteed. That's a tough pill to swallow for the Saints. We all want to see Drew stay, but I maintain that we can't just write this guy a blank check, essentially, just because of who he is. There still has to be some give and take on both sides if this team is to be competitive. The problem isn't that it's a blank check. The problem is that market rate seems like a blank check. Just think about the fact that Luck signed for 6 years/ $140 million/ $47 million guaranteed coming off a dismal season where he missed more than half the season. Where Von Miller, who isn't even a QB, just got $70 million in guaranteed dollars. That's the market. If the Saints choose not to pay it, some other team certainly will. If a fair deal for both can't be done for any reason, then you just have to deal with it and move on. I'm not panicking over this in the least. Life for Saints fans will go on with or without Brees' services and no one plays forever, anyway. I agree to a point. As long as there is a clear understanding that a fair deal for the player is going to have to near market rate, and that the guaranteed money will need to be upped in order to shorten the contract length. Brees isn't likely to get a Luck Type contract because few believe he'll be here 5 or 6 more years after 2016 to play. That's moving into George Blanda territory. Pretty much if a 3 year contract is on the table, then $70-$75 million is the number, and it'll likely have to be all (or nearly all) guaranteed. As for the money for the rest of the squad, Loomis has been playing the accounting game based on the fact that the cap is going to keep rising. Brees money hasn't kept the Saints from outlaying dollars to Byrd, or Fleener, or fixing Westbank's contract. And that cap is going to keep growing. In fact the Saints will likely save over $5 million on this year's cap if they get a deal done as Brees' cap hit is at $30 million. An extension can put $40 million in Brees pocket and lower the cap to under $25 million at the same time. Finally, be sure that stadium dollars are not the driving engine for paying the salaries of players. The vast bulk of the dollars are from TV contracts. And expect those contracts to keep pushing the cap, and player salaries because NFL football is like printing money for these networks and their advertisers. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

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