Pay Brees!

burningmetal · 08-14-2016, 01:01 AM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

Anyone who thought that the holdup was rookie contracts are whatever are operating with flawed assumptions. The two flawed assumptions that I've consistently seen over the last 6 months:

1. That this is some type of restructure that the team controls. It's not. It's a negotiation for a new contract. It's just that the Saints can do the extension now because Brees is under contract until next March. After that all bets are off.

2. That Brees is going to see this from a Saints Fan perspective. So somehow the option of accepting a low ball offer, or that there's no way he's going to play elsewhere are part of the equation. This is going to be Brees' last major contract. Up until this moment he is playing at an elite level. He is worth every penny of market value and has 10+ years of Hall of Fame level evidence to show for it.

There is nothing easy about this. Brees' last contract was $100 million, $60 million guaranteed. We all see the $30 million cap number for this year as the residual of that contract. The next one is going to average $25 million a year with much of it guaranteed. That's a tough pill to swallow for the Saints.

The problem isn't that it's a blank check. The problem is that market rate seems like a blank check. Just think about the fact that Luck signed for 6 years/ $140 million/ $47 million guaranteed coming off a dismal season where he missed more than half the season. Where Von Miller, who isn't even a QB, just got $70 million in guaranteed dollars. That's the market. If the Saints choose not to pay it, some other team certainly will.

I agree to a point. As long as there is a clear understanding that a fair deal for the player is going to have to near market rate, and that the guaranteed money will need to be upped in order to shorten the contract length. Brees isn't likely to get a Luck Type contract because few believe he'll be here 5 or 6 more years after 2016 to play. That's moving into George Blanda territory. Pretty much if a 3 year contract is on the table, then $70-$75 million is the number, and it'll likely have to be all (or nearly all) guaranteed.

As for the money for the rest of the squad, Loomis has been playing the accounting game based on the fact that the cap is going to keep rising. Brees money hasn't kept the Saints from outlaying dollars to Byrd, or Fleener, or fixing Westbank's contract. And that cap is going to keep growing. In fact the Saints will likely save over $5 million on this year's cap if they get a deal done as Brees' cap hit is at $30 million. An extension can put $40 million in Brees pocket and lower the cap to under $25 million at the same time.

Finally, be sure that stadium dollars are not the driving engine for paying the salaries of players. The vast bulk of the dollars are from TV contracts. And expect those contracts to keep pushing the cap, and player salaries because NFL football is like printing money for these networks and their advertisers.

SFIAH

I'm well aware of market value. It's been discussed for years and years, and is a secret to no one, at this point. But market "value" is mostly a residual consequence of teams being desperate and over paying. Once they over pay, the bar is set. And when that happens every decent QB, not just the elite, want to negotiate at or above that number, because the precedent is already set that teams will do anything to have stability at the QB position.

Neither Drew nor any other of these guys with 100 million plus contracts have actually "earned" that money. Nothing they do is that important when you compare it to other jobs around the world. So I get highly annoyed by this idea that the team owes Drew something extra because market value has risen since his last deal. They don't owe him anything, he has made plenty. But I get it from his perspective that he can't just take a low ball offer when he could make more elsewhere. So I'm not gonna toilet paper his house if he should leave. It's business. But the Saints have to be reasonable. They can't pay a guy his age like he's 25.

I hear what you are saying about the cap rising, and I have heard that many times from people defending Loomis' tactics. You mentioned a couple players whom the team has signed, but the problem is it's always just a player here, and a player there, each year. I'll admit that I wanted Byrd before he came here, but when I actually saw the contract I was blown away. It was extremely ill-advised to put that much into one player with as many problems as they needed to address on defense.

There never seems to be enough money to go around in free agency. And when they do sign people, it's usually a bad move. I think they over paid for Fleener, for example, but that's just my opinion. It's hard to build through the draft alone. There are so many busts. You need to have a few proven commodities. Many of the key players who were on the '09 team were not drafted by the Saints.

For the past several years Loomis has been deferring money, which has only served to keep the team out of the penalty. I don't consider that very smart business.

08-14-2016, 01:01 AM	#11
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Pay Brees! Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL Anyone who thought that the holdup was rookie contracts are whatever are operating with flawed assumptions. The two flawed assumptions that I've consistently seen over the last 6 months: 1. That this is some type of restructure that the team controls. It's not. It's a negotiation for a new contract. It's just that the Saints can do the extension now because Brees is under contract until next March. After that all bets are off. 2. That Brees is going to see this from a Saints Fan perspective. So somehow the option of accepting a low ball offer, or that there's no way he's going to play elsewhere are part of the equation. This is going to be Brees' last major contract. Up until this moment he is playing at an elite level. He is worth every penny of market value and has 10+ years of Hall of Fame level evidence to show for it. There is nothing easy about this. Brees' last contract was $100 million, $60 million guaranteed. We all see the $30 million cap number for this year as the residual of that contract. The next one is going to average $25 million a year with much of it guaranteed. That's a tough pill to swallow for the Saints. The problem isn't that it's a blank check. The problem is that market rate seems like a blank check. Just think about the fact that Luck signed for 6 years/ $140 million/ $47 million guaranteed coming off a dismal season where he missed more than half the season. Where Von Miller, who isn't even a QB, just got $70 million in guaranteed dollars. That's the market. If the Saints choose not to pay it, some other team certainly will. I agree to a point. As long as there is a clear understanding that a fair deal for the player is going to have to near market rate, and that the guaranteed money will need to be upped in order to shorten the contract length. Brees isn't likely to get a Luck Type contract because few believe he'll be here 5 or 6 more years after 2016 to play. That's moving into George Blanda territory. Pretty much if a 3 year contract is on the table, then $70-$75 million is the number, and it'll likely have to be all (or nearly all) guaranteed. As for the money for the rest of the squad, Loomis has been playing the accounting game based on the fact that the cap is going to keep rising. Brees money hasn't kept the Saints from outlaying dollars to Byrd, or Fleener, or fixing Westbank's contract. And that cap is going to keep growing. In fact the Saints will likely save over $5 million on this year's cap if they get a deal done as Brees' cap hit is at $30 million. An extension can put $40 million in Brees pocket and lower the cap to under $25 million at the same time. Finally, be sure that stadium dollars are not the driving engine for paying the salaries of players. The vast bulk of the dollars are from TV contracts. And expect those contracts to keep pushing the cap, and player salaries because NFL football is like printing money for these networks and their advertisers. SFIAH I'm well aware of market value. It's been discussed for years and years, and is a secret to no one, at this point. But market "value" is mostly a residual consequence of teams being desperate and over paying. Once they over pay, the bar is set. And when that happens every decent QB, not just the elite, want to negotiate at or above that number, because the precedent is already set that teams will do anything to have stability at the QB position. Neither Drew nor any other of these guys with 100 million plus contracts have actually "earned" that money. Nothing they do is that important when you compare it to other jobs around the world. So I get highly annoyed by this idea that the team owes Drew something extra because market value has risen since his last deal. They don't owe him anything, he has made plenty. But I get it from his perspective that he can't just take a low ball offer when he could make more elsewhere. So I'm not gonna toilet paper his house if he should leave. It's business. But the Saints have to be reasonable. They can't pay a guy his age like he's 25. I hear what you are saying about the cap rising, and I have heard that many times from people defending Loomis' tactics. You mentioned a couple players whom the team has signed, but the problem is it's always just a player here, and a player there, each year. I'll admit that I wanted Byrd before he came here, but when I actually saw the contract I was blown away. It was extremely ill-advised to put that much into one player with as many problems as they needed to address on defense. There never seems to be enough money to go around in free agency. And when they do sign people, it's usually a bad move. I think they over paid for Fleener, for example, but that's just my opinion. It's hard to build through the draft alone. There are so many busts. You need to have a few proven commodities. Many of the key players who were on the '09 team were not drafted by the Saints. For the past several years Loomis has been deferring money, which has only served to keep the team out of the penalty. I don't consider that very smart business.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

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