Re: And so it begins...
 

Not a reliable source. Like I said, a rumor peddler...

Re: And so it begins...
 

Re: And so it begins...
 

This is all over Saintsreport and it’s got all those toddlers up in arms. That place is the worst. It’s like a nut house for squirrels.
I’m glad we have this place. Time for a donation.

Re: And so it begins...
 

When aren't you feeling that?

I think we have our bet this season. $20 says we do better than 7-9!

Re: And so it begins...
 

Nah I wouldn’t take that. 10-6 at worst. I’d rather bet on Murray.

Re: And so it begins...
 

I'd also bet on Murray. The odds of a 29 & 3/4 year old RB going the distance is extremely rare. Even going at less than half the workload plus he's already hurt and the gun has not gone off.

I think Ozigbo is going to shock a lot of people. Payton was smart grabbing this guy. He's a real deal RB, not some 190-210lb scatback. He'll be the starter about halfway point.

Re: And so it begins...
 

RB is the least of the Saints worries right now.

Don't understand why you two go back and forth on Latavius.

Did you not see the lack of a consistent pass rush (no Cam) vs the Vikes last Friday night?

Re: And so it begins...
 

Ok bets on
Beast bets you
I bet Guido
Bet $20
Parameters? Combined yards? Health, games played?

Re: And so it begins...
 

V

Re: And so it begins...
 

** B&G ** :bng: ...

Team is off today. Travel to the West coast on Wednesday for joint practices Thursday and Friday vs the Chargers.

FYI, pre season game #2 is Sunday @ 3 c.s.t.

Re: And so it begins...
 

So you're saying that Ozigbo will primary RB on the roster by week nine? Most carries over the second half of the season of any RB on the roster?

Re: And so it begins...
 

The probability is higher Murray will get hurt and Ozigbo will fill the 40% RB work. That is what I'm saying due to age and also; he is already hurt.

I thought the same thing with AD. He would not make it through the season and Kamara would jump in even before training camp. AD didn't get hurt but he did later on his new team and put on IR.

Re: And so it begins...
 

So you are willing to bet that Murray will get fewer carries than Ozigbo over the last eight games. Is that fair to say?

Re: And so it begins...
 

Agree Murray will get hurt at some point in the season, but I think we’ll be ok. Murray looked good in the preseason game though. You can tell he is going to surprise folks in the first few games with his pass catching.

Re: And so it begins...
 

Why would you think Murray would get hurt during the season? What do you base that on? Murray has missed THREE total games since 2013. Two games due to turf toe and one game due to a concussion. He hasn't missed any games since 2016. He's actually known for his durability.

:confused:

Re: And so it begins...
 

I think Murray will showcase a lot more of his pass catching ability here (more so than with the Vikes) similar to how he was used out in Oakland.

That tall frame (think Deuce M) and long strides will keep those chains moving.

He doesn't miss games and doesn't fumble either. Not sure where the "he'll get hurt at some point" logic is coming from.

Re: And so it begins...
 

Is this based on him missing a few days from Saints training camp?

He may miss practice but he shows up for work on Sundays over the entire course of his career dating back to Oakland.

Re: And so it begins...
 

He's hurt now and at an age associated with RB decline / slower recovery.

Nothing personal. Hope he beats the the odds but those odds are low.

Re: And so it begins...
 

This guy ? He's hurt ? Kind of beautiful the way his old team mate (#54 Kendricks) is laid out on that NOLA Super dome turf.. Right :cool:.

https://saintsreport.com/attachments...am-png.121189/

Re: And so it begins...
 

One more photo on the hurt guy from pre season game #1.

Beast - I think my new nick name for Latavius is "Mr. Hurt" ... he's definitely going to put the hurt out on a lot of backs in 2019 :p .

https://saintsreport.com/attachments...am-png.121186/

Re: And so it begins...
 

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?c...,x&chxr=0,0,25


The third to last column is RB performance based on his current age.

Re: And so it begins...
 

I don't think this was posted so thought I'd share RB stats from p/s game #1.

Dwayne Washington 8 att 36 yards yds/att 4.5 Long - 12
Jaquizz Rodgers 5 att 15 yards yds/att 3.0 Long - 5
Alvin Kamara 4 att 11 yards yds/att 2.8 Long - 5
Devin Ozigbo 3 att 20 yards yds/att 6.7 Long - 11
Mr. Hurt (Murray) 3 att 14 yards yds/att 4.7 Long - 6

Re: And so it begins...
 

What makes you think he's hurt now? He had a minor ankle procedure done just after the end of last season. Probably cleaning up some old scar tissue or such. That doesn't make him hurt. Recovering is not being hurt, but will still have a player miss some practice time. He's obviously recovered to the point that Payton has given him the go. It doesn't mean "he's hurt now".

Well, do we have the bet? If you're so positive Murray won't last the season then you should be confident that Ozigbo will have more carries the final eight weeks of the season than Murray, right?

Re: And so it begins...
 

There is a high probability he will not make it to the finish line. Are you saying that is false. If so, I want to know what data you are using. A rational person, using real data, can see what happens when a RB is closer to 30 at the start of a season. It rarely works out. Almost never.

I don't know what his current ailments are, Payton has been vague about it but he is dealing with something and the season has not started.

If you want to crown him then crown him. I will also let you off the hook if it goes the path of law of averages.

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=h...6pid%3DApi&f=1

Re: And so it begins...
 

Here's where your interpretation of the data is skewed. This chart demonstrates performance by season. This is Latavius Murray's SIXTH NFL season. According to your chart he has this season AND next season, his SEVENTH, to fall within the high performance area of the data distribution.

Edit: Actually, I was incorrect ... according to your chart this should be basically tied for the third most production season of his career (the 6th column). So, according to your chart he has two full seasons of high production AFTER 2019!

Re: And so it begins...
 

Payton is vague about everything this time of year. But, the fact is he is practicing now and played in the first preseason game. If he was truly still dealing with an injury there is no way he would have been out there on the field. You stated "he is dealing with something," but that is where you are wrong. "he was dealing with something". Big difference.

Re: And so it begins...
 

One more thing, Beast ... what is the source for your data chart? What time period does it cover? Is it based upon all RB's, starting RB's, RB's that share carries via committee? Murray has been in a committee based offense his entire career. FAR less wear and tear. I have worked with data and numbers for decades and know how misleading data can be if not observed in the proper context.

Re: And so it begins...
 

I'm a project manager. All I do is work with data, risks and probability. Has nothing to do with anything though because if you do a basic search for the performance of RB's by age, it will bring up 50 sites stating the same thing; Once they hit 29 plus their performance drops off a cliff, not some gradual slope. Some have bunked that but it's almost nobody. The probability of him making it the whole season and killing it is almost zero. It's maybe 3-4% that happens but go ahead and believe what you want.

You are betting on the 5th horse in the 6th race. There is a song about it called Chips Ahoy.

Re: And so it begins...
 

Well, I was a senior systems analyst (also wearing a senior business analyst's hat) with a degree in accounting. I actually dealt hands on with data for years "slicing and dicing" to fit the project manager's needs. I managed my share of projects, as well. I know probabilities as well as most and have dealt with health related probability data extensively given I designed all of the reporting for a HMO/PPO company for almost twenty years.

Without knowing strict input parameters your chart is meaningless. There are far too many variables involved. But, even if accurate, your chart shows a high probability that Murray should have one of his four most productive NFL seasons (his 6th) in 2019 and still perform at a high level for the two seasons following.

Re: And so it begins...
 

Once again, could you supply us all with the source of the chart that you posted? I see it was made using google charts.

Re: And so it begins...
 

I'm done. If you think he's going to tear it up just like Meredith was suppose to do go for it. I live in reality. The odds of that happening are about as close to zero as possible. It doesn't matter what data I present either because you know you'll never accept it so what are we talking about. His rushing numbers have been dropping for 3 years and he was not the starter until injuries hit. If he was not the starter then what does that tell you. Obviously nothing.

Re: And so it begins...
 

Like I thought. You can't give me the source of your production chart. So, if you are SO confident of your research that you are positive he will not be as productive as Ozigbo then pony up the bet.

$20 says Murray has more carries the last eight games than Ozigbo. I'm sure your data wouldn't lie to you, right?

;)

Edit: And I would love to see that data that you presented. All you showed was a Google generated chart.

Re: And so it begins...
 

Let me get this straight. You already lost money on Meredith but want to roll the dice again. Ok. I'll bet you $20 Murray does not make it 8 games period. Best I can do. He will not play in more than 8 games in the regular season.

If he does I'll be glad to pay it. I actually want to see a 30 year old RB beat the odds. It's a great story.

Re: And so it begins...
 

I'm cool with Murray. It's like a used car. We got a 5 year old model with no major repair history, for a great price.

Re: And so it begins...
 

You have that bet.

Re: And so it begins...
 

What can I say, I have a big heart. Giving you a chance to earn your Meredith money back. Nobody else is doing that.

Re: And so it begins...
 

I don’t have anything against Murray, but a RB his age whose hurt the first week of camp doesn’t give me a ton of confidence given how important his role is supposed to be. I have a feeling we are going to miss Ingram’s play and locker room presence.

Maybe we have enough weapons at other skill positions to exploit defenses in a different way but there are still several unknowns at skill positions. It would be nice to have a back that can assume Ingram’s role if Butler, Washington, Humphrey, etc don’t pan out. At least we would have a tried and true attack.

Either way I feel like our offense is going to look very different than last year. Game tape from last year isn’t going to help defenses as much.

Re: And so it begins...
 

Only way it works if we have a 3 RB attack and preserve him as much as possible. If he's getting 40 plus % of the RB touches I don't see it working out. Especially if we get into the playoffs. That is a long, long journey. He will be 30 yrs old if that happens. I recall going from 27 to 30 very clearly being in the military. I lost endurance, my joints felt different even though I was pushing myself physically harder. Some days I could pull it off. Some days I could not. At 27 no problem.

Re: And so it begins...
 

Same can be said for Brees. I’m convinced the blame for the “drop off” we saw Was more a result of protection than age. Also believe he may have tweaked something.

It’s a year later now and I believe we will see a slight drop off. Payton can make it less of an issue if he would start pulling Brees when we are 3 TDs up with 4 minutes to go.

There is no reason Brees needs to be out there getting live action reps and risk injury. This will really help in the playoffs when he doesn’t have the same pass protection because Armstead is out.

Re: And so it begins...
 

I’d keep my eye on Jeremy Hill. He’s 26-years old and still a free agent because he’s coming off an ACL tear. I wouldn’t worry about his recovery as much because he’s a power back and not a lateral movement guy. Whenever he’s cleared I’d bring him in.