Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage?

vpheughan · 01-21-2020, 02:12 PM

https://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-st...mes-in-the-nfl

Rushing attempts = WINS? There is this.......

AsylumGuido · 01-21-2020, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

I think Teddy goes to Carolina...

Anyone think it’s odd that Drew hasn’t come out and said what he intends to do yet? I don’t think it’s unreasonable for him to wait a few months to see where his head is at, but usually Drew is pretty decisive, at least he was in past years.

Drew has said what he intends to do. He has said that he intends to keep playing as long as he is playing at a high level and is enjoying the game and preparation. He has also said that he intends on finishing his career with the Saints. It is a given that he will be back once again next year. That is the assumption by himself AND the Saints front office.

SmashMouth · 01-21-2020, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by st thomas

Drew Brees will be coming back one more season to seal the deal on his HOF career . And in my honest opinion will not get us back to a Super Bowl . Simply doing it for the records . Sorry if it burns some of ur pussies but jmo. Think about it. This offense has lost its confidence in Drew and Payton for plays he has to call to suit Drew’s decline . We have to put in another guy to throw long which alerts the common 12 year old fan to defend either a bomb or a qb sweep. They will be ready for it next season. Come next season my expectations are minuscule . Because I’m done getting burnt by the eye candy.

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WTF is this with this Brees BS?

AsylumGuido · 01-21-2020, 02:26 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

B&G ...

The 0-42 stat ^^^^ in your signature quote ... one word WOW.

What is so wow about that? They have also lost 394 games when they rushed the ball 15 or more times in a game. It makes perfect sense. That fact that they rushed the ball fewer than 15 times was not the reason they lost those games. The fact that they were losing the games forced them to go to the pass early, thus leading to fewer rushing attempts.

This has been pointed out and has even been discussed on NFL Radio. Correlation does not equal causation.

A similar stat could be shown for every football team ever.

vpheughan · 01-21-2020, 02:47 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

What is so wow about that? They have also lost 394 games when they rushed the ball 15 or more times in a game. It makes perfect sense. That fact that they rushed the ball fewer than 15 times was not the reason they lost those games. The fact that they were losing the games forced them to go to the pass early, thus leading to fewer rushing attempts.

This has been pointed out and has even been discussed on NFL Radio. Correlation does not equal causation.

A similar stat could be shown for every football team ever.

Exactly what the link I posted is about.

K Major · 01-21-2020, 03:49 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

What is so wow about that? They have also lost 394 games when they rushed the ball 15 or more times in a game. It makes perfect sense. That fact that they rushed the ball fewer than 15 times was not the reason they lost those games. The fact that they were losing the games forced them to go to the pass early, thus leading to fewer rushing attempts.

This has been pointed out and has even been discussed on NFL Radio. Correlation does not equal causation.

A similar stat could be shown for every football team ever.

AG -

Circle back to the Vikings. D Cooks ran 28 times.
Andy Reid doesn't even have a RB "threat", yet their RB + Pat Mahommes ran 25 times last night. Credit AR for not abandoning the run even when they got behind.

The Saints RB (AK/LM) two main threats ran 12 times + Take some Taysom 3 run plays = 16. Running the ball is how you advance in the playoffs.

Then factor in that our defense isn't clutch when it needs to be late in games.

Maybe coach will change his strategy on commitment to run "early" so he won't have to pass late. It sure as hell worked when 2 Glove Teddy was running the offense.

Take what defenses are giving you. Have we stayed committed to the run with TH, LM, AK, we are more likely still playing in January ... maybe even the Super Bowl.

Even if you are getting mauled in the trenches, stick with it.

But here we are ....

AsylumGuido · 01-21-2020, 04:41 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

AG -

Circle back to the Vikings. D Cooks ran 28 times.
Andy Reid doesn't even have a RB "threat", yet their RB + Pat Mahommes ran 25 times last night. Credit AR for not abandoning the run even when they got behind.

The Saints RB (AK/LM) two main threats ran 12 times + Take some Taysom 3 run plays = 16. Running the ball is how you advance in the playoffs.

Then factor in that our defense isn't clutch when it needs to be late in games.

Maybe coach will change his strategy on commitment to run "early" so he won't have to pass late. It sure as hell worked when 2 Glove Teddy was running the offense.

Take what defenses are giving you. Have we stayed committed to the run with TH, LM, AK, we are more likely still playing in January ... maybe even the Super Bowl.

Even if you are getting mauled in the trenches, stick with it.

But here we are ....

If the run keeps getting you three and outs sometimes you have to go with the pass just to hope to move the chains. Every coach would rather run than pass, but sometimes your hand is forced. As I pointed out, running the ball 15 or more times still resulted in 396 Saints losses. The reason we lost games with lows numbers of runs is not because we ran the ball too little. It is because we could not maintain drives. Once again, correlation is NOT causation. We ran the ball so few times because we could not prolong drives which limits the number of possessions and plays.

This is not the norm. Those 42 losses came over 839 games and 53 years. And why was that threshold of UNDER 15 games used? Because the Saints won games with 15 carries. It can be done. Is it ideal? No. Hopefully you can get back into the game and start prolonging drives that will allow you more carries later. I will guarantee you that has happened dozens of times over the past 53 years for the Saints.

AsylumGuido · 01-21-2020, 05:04 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

AG -

Andy Reid doesn't even have a RB "threat", yet their RB + Pat Mahommes ran 25 times last night. Credit AR for not abandoning the run even when they got behind.

I have to call you out on this one, K. In fact, it completely supports my take. In the Chiefs first four possessions they had six running plays and 23 passing plays and one of those six running plays was Mahomes' 27 yard scramble for the TD and their first lead at 21-17. It wasn't until they had gained the lead that they were able to commit to the run. Nineteen of their 27 total running plays came in the final three possessions with the lead.

They got behind early and their running game was not working so they went strictly to the pass until they were able to regain the lead. What would have happened had they NOT regained the lead? Chances are they would have continued to try to catch up via the pass and if that was not successful they would have lost with less than ten rushing attempts. Was their potential loss because they ran the ball fewer than ten times? Or was the fact that they were not able to regain the lead that led to their potentially running the ball fewer than ten times?

Lord_Saint83 · 01-21-2020, 05:39 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

I have to call you out on this one, K. In fact, it completely supports my take. In the Chiefs first four possessions they had six running plays and 23 passing plays and one of those six running plays was Mahomes' 27 yard scramble for the TD and their first lead at 21-17. It wasn't until they had gained the lead that they were able to commit to the run. Nineteen of their 27 total running plays came in the final three possessions with the lead.

They got behind early and their running game was not working so they went strictly to the pass until they were able to regain the lead. What would have happened had they NOT regained the lead? Chances are they would have continued to try to catch up via the pass and if that was not successful they would have lost with less than ten rushing attempts. Was their potential loss because they ran the ball fewer than ten times? Or was the fact that they were not able to regain the lead that led to their potentially running the ball fewer than ten times?

But they were able to pass and do so effectively because tennessee was only sending three and they were average to below average pass rushers. Minnesota was a different story, they have a really good four man rush. Idk what Pees was thinking but any good qb will torch you doing that. So mahomes didn't have to worry about tennessee pinning their ears back cause basically they were playing prevent damn near and we all know what prevent does.

AsylumGuido · 01-21-2020, 05:58 PM

Originally Posted by Lord_Saint83

But they were able to pass and do so effectively because tennessee was only sending three and they were average to below average pass rushers. Minnesota was a different story, they have a really good four man rush. Idk what Pees was thinking but any good qb will torch you doing that. So mahomes didn't have to worry about tennessee pinning their ears back cause basically they were playing prevent damn near and we all know what prevent does.

I wasn't referring as much to the Vikings game as I was to the 42 lost games in Saints history with fewer than 15 rushing attempts as brought up by K_Major. Sometimes the flow of the game dictates what you can try. Total rushing attempts is game situation produced, not the other way around. Abandoning a running game does not create a loss. Being unable to maintain drives via the run and getting behind can force the need to pass and can still result in a loss.

01-21-2020, 02:12 PM	#91
vpheughan 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,519	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? https://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-st...mes-in-the-nfl Rushing attempts = WINS? There is this....... TheOak likes this.
vpheughan 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,519

01-21-2020, 02:14 PM	#92
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by blackangold I think Teddy goes to Carolina... Anyone think it’s odd that Drew hasn’t come out and said what he intends to do yet? I don’t think it’s unreasonable for him to wait a few months to see where his head is at, but usually Drew is pretty decisive, at least he was in past years. Drew has said what he intends to do. He has said that he intends to keep playing as long as he is playing at a high level and is enjoying the game and preparation. He has also said that he intends on finishing his career with the Saints. It is a given that he will be back once again next year. That is the assumption by himself AND the Saints front office.

01-21-2020, 02:16 PM	#93
SmashMouth I donated, did you? Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Mandeville, LA Posts: 38,123 Blog Entries: 29	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by st thomas Drew Brees will be coming back one more season to seal the deal on his HOF career . And in my honest opinion will not get us back to a Super Bowl . Simply doing it for the records . Sorry if it burns some of ur pussies but jmo. Think about it. This offense has lost its confidence in Drew and Payton for plays he has to call to suit Drew’s decline . We have to put in another guy to throw long which alerts the common 12 year old fan to defend either a bomb or a qb sweep. They will be ready for it next season. Come next season my expectations are minuscule . Because I’m done getting burnt by the eye candy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk WTF is this with this Brees BS? skymike and Rugby Saint II like this.

01-21-2020, 02:26 PM	#94
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by K Major B&G ... The 0-42 stat ^^^^ in your signature quote ... one word WOW. What is so wow about that? They have also lost 394 games when they rushed the ball 15 or more times in a game. It makes perfect sense. That fact that they rushed the ball fewer than 15 times was not the reason they lost those games. The fact that they were losing the games forced them to go to the pass early, thus leading to fewer rushing attempts. This has been pointed out and has even been discussed on NFL Radio. Correlation does not equal causation. A similar stat could be shown for every football team ever.

01-21-2020, 02:47 PM	#95
vpheughan 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,519	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by AsylumGuido What is so wow about that? They have also lost 394 games when they rushed the ball 15 or more times in a game. It makes perfect sense. That fact that they rushed the ball fewer than 15 times was not the reason they lost those games. The fact that they were losing the games forced them to go to the pass early, thus leading to fewer rushing attempts. This has been pointed out and has even been discussed on NFL Radio. Correlation does not equal causation. A similar stat could be shown for every football team ever. Exactly what the link I posted is about.
vpheughan 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,519

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01-21-2020, 03:49 PM	#96
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,619 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by AsylumGuido What is so wow about that? They have also lost 394 games when they rushed the ball 15 or more times in a game. It makes perfect sense. That fact that they rushed the ball fewer than 15 times was not the reason they lost those games. The fact that they were losing the games forced them to go to the pass early, thus leading to fewer rushing attempts. This has been pointed out and has even been discussed on NFL Radio. Correlation does not equal causation. A similar stat could be shown for every football team ever. AG - Circle back to the Vikings. D Cooks ran 28 times. Andy Reid doesn't even have a RB "threat", yet their RB + Pat Mahommes ran 25 times last night. Credit AR for not abandoning the run even when they got behind. The Saints RB (AK/LM) two main threats ran 12 times + Take some Taysom 3 run plays = 16. Running the ball is how you advance in the playoffs. Then factor in that our defense isn't clutch when it needs to be late in games. Maybe coach will change his strategy on commitment to run "early" so he won't have to pass late. It sure as hell worked when 2 Glove Teddy was running the offense. Take what defenses are giving you. Have we stayed committed to the run with TH, LM, AK, we are more likely still playing in January ... maybe even the Super Bowl. Even if you are getting mauled in the trenches, stick with it. But here we are .... neugey likes this.
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01-21-2020, 04:41 PM	#97
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by K Major AG - Circle back to the Vikings. D Cooks ran 28 times. Andy Reid doesn't even have a RB "threat", yet their RB + Pat Mahommes ran 25 times last night. Credit AR for not abandoning the run even when they got behind. The Saints RB (AK/LM) two main threats ran 12 times + Take some Taysom 3 run plays = 16. Running the ball is how you advance in the playoffs. Then factor in that our defense isn't clutch when it needs to be late in games. Maybe coach will change his strategy on commitment to run "early" so he won't have to pass late. It sure as hell worked when 2 Glove Teddy was running the offense. Take what defenses are giving you. Have we stayed committed to the run with TH, LM, AK, we are more likely still playing in January ... maybe even the Super Bowl. Even if you are getting mauled in the trenches, stick with it. But here we are .... If the run keeps getting you three and outs sometimes you have to go with the pass just to hope to move the chains. Every coach would rather run than pass, but sometimes your hand is forced. As I pointed out, running the ball 15 or more times still resulted in 396 Saints losses. The reason we lost games with lows numbers of runs is not because we ran the ball too little. It is because we could not maintain drives. Once again, correlation is NOT causation. We ran the ball so few times because we could not prolong drives which limits the number of possessions and plays. This is not the norm. Those 42 losses came over 839 games and 53 years. And why was that threshold of UNDER 15 games used? Because the Saints won games with 15 carries. It can be done. Is it ideal? No. Hopefully you can get back into the game and start prolonging drives that will allow you more carries later. I will guarantee you that has happened dozens of times over the past 53 years for the Saints.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

01-21-2020, 05:04 PM	#98
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by K Major AG - Andy Reid doesn't even have a RB "threat", yet their RB + Pat Mahommes ran 25 times last night. Credit AR for not abandoning the run even when they got behind. I have to call you out on this one, K. In fact, it completely supports my take. In the Chiefs first four possessions they had six running plays and 23 passing plays and one of those six running plays was Mahomes' 27 yard scramble for the TD and their first lead at 21-17. It wasn't until they had gained the lead that they were able to commit to the run. Nineteen of their 27 total running plays came in the final three possessions with the lead. They got behind early and their running game was not working so they went strictly to the pass until they were able to regain the lead. What would have happened had they NOT regained the lead? Chances are they would have continued to try to catch up via the pass and if that was not successful they would have lost with less than ten rushing attempts. Was their potential loss because they ran the ball fewer than ten times? Or was the fact that they were not able to regain the lead that led to their potentially running the ball fewer than ten times?
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

01-21-2020, 05:39 PM	#99
Lord_Saint83 100% Blunt Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Saint Gabriel, La Posts: 2,754	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I have to call you out on this one, K. In fact, it completely supports my take. In the Chiefs first four possessions they had six running plays and 23 passing plays and one of those six running plays was Mahomes' 27 yard scramble for the TD and their first lead at 21-17. It wasn't until they had gained the lead that they were able to commit to the run. Nineteen of their 27 total running plays came in the final three possessions with the lead. They got behind early and their running game was not working so they went strictly to the pass until they were able to regain the lead. What would have happened had they NOT regained the lead? Chances are they would have continued to try to catch up via the pass and if that was not successful they would have lost with less than ten rushing attempts. Was their potential loss because they ran the ball fewer than ten times? Or was the fact that they were not able to regain the lead that led to their potentially running the ball fewer than ten times? But they were able to pass and do so effectively because tennessee was only sending three and they were average to below average pass rushers. Minnesota was a different story, they have a really good four man rush. Idk what Pees was thinking but any good qb will torch you doing that. So mahomes didn't have to worry about tennessee pinning their ears back cause basically they were playing prevent damn near and we all know what prevent does.

01-21-2020, 05:58 PM	#100
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,214	Re: Is Drew Brees holding the saints hostage? Originally Posted by Lord_Saint83 But they were able to pass and do so effectively because tennessee was only sending three and they were average to below average pass rushers. Minnesota was a different story, they have a really good four man rush. Idk what Pees was thinking but any good qb will torch you doing that. So mahomes didn't have to worry about tennessee pinning their ears back cause basically they were playing prevent damn near and we all know what prevent does. I wasn't referring as much to the Vikings game as I was to the 42 lost games in Saints history with fewer than 15 rushing attempts as brought up by K_Major. Sometimes the flow of the game dictates what you can try. Total rushing attempts is game situation produced, not the other way around. Abandoning a running game does not create a loss. Being unable to maintain drives via the run and getting behind can force the need to pass and can still result in a loss.

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