Do you see a 2020 season happening?

blackangold · 04-08-2020, 10:04 AM

Oh look at that... projected deaths just dropped again. Now down to 60k projected deaths from 80k (in March it was close to 200k).

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

JayFoster · 04-08-2020, 10:43 AM

You do understand that based on how we react to the virus deaths can go up or down, right. It depends on us.

JayFoster · 04-08-2020, 10:43 AM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Oh look at that... projected deaths just dropped again. Now down to 60k projected deaths from 80k (in March it was close to 200k).

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

You do understand that based on how we react to the virus, deaths can go up or down, right? It depends on us.

blackangold · 04-08-2020, 11:09 AM

Originally Posted by JayFoster

You do understand that based on how we react to the virus, deaths can go up or down, right? It depends on us.

What I am posting are nationally leveraged models and projections, you understand that right?

You understand that, in mid-March 200k was projected with mitigation?

Guess that means we are doing a great job... I am a glass half-full type of guy though.

JayFoster · 04-08-2020, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

What I am posting are nationally leveraged models and projections, you understand that right?

You understand that, in mid-March 200k was projected with mitigation?

Guess that means we are doing a great job... I am a glass half-full type of guy though.

I know what the projection was. Again, how we react to this virus at this point is going to change the numbers.

It would have been great to massively test and then isolate but we missed that boat.

blackangold · 04-08-2020, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by JayFoster

I know what the projection was. Again, how we react to this virus at this point is going to change the numbers.

It would have been great to massively test and then isolate but we missed that boat.

Yup

Would have been great to bet your life savings on the Saints to win the superbowl in 09, but we missed the boat...

hitta · 04-08-2020, 03:58 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

What I am posting are nationally leveraged models and projections, you understand that right?

You understand that, in mid-March 200k was projected with mitigation?

Guess that means we are doing a great job... I am a glass half-full type of guy though.

All of their numbers are only projected into July. They don't account for the virus spreading through the population after we leave isolation. Their model is a pipe dream.

blackangold · 04-08-2020, 06:21 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

All of their numbers are only projected into July. They don't account for the virus spreading through the population after we leave isolation. Their model is a pipe dream.

Cool story...

Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do.

I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

hitta · 04-08-2020, 07:49 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Cool story...

Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do.

I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

That's not an opinion, that's an actual fact. The models they are using are assuming Wuhan like lockdown scenario and that we stay in containment. They don't account for the virus coming back and respreading. The Lipsitch guy who was a big part of putting together the governments model will tell you that himself.

hitta · 04-08-2020, 10:09 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Cool story...

Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do.

I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.

04-08-2020, 10:04 AM	#1
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Oh look at that... projected deaths just dropped again. Now down to 60k projected deaths from 80k (in March it was close to 200k). https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america saintsfan1976 likes this.

04-08-2020, 10:43 AM	#2
JayFoster 100th Post Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 122	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? You do understand that based on how we react to the virus deaths can go up or down, right. It depends on us. hitta likes this.
JayFoster 100th Post Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 122

04-08-2020, 10:43 AM	#3
JayFoster 100th Post Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 122	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Oh look at that... projected deaths just dropped again. Now down to 60k projected deaths from 80k (in March it was close to 200k). https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america You do understand that based on how we react to the virus, deaths can go up or down, right? It depends on us.
JayFoster 100th Post Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 122

04-08-2020, 11:09 AM	#4
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by JayFoster You do understand that based on how we react to the virus, deaths can go up or down, right? It depends on us. What I am posting are nationally leveraged models and projections, you understand that right? You understand that, in mid-March 200k was projected with mitigation? Guess that means we are doing a great job... I am a glass half-full type of guy though.

04-08-2020, 01:03 PM	#5
JayFoster 100th Post Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 122	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold What I am posting are nationally leveraged models and projections, you understand that right? You understand that, in mid-March 200k was projected with mitigation? Guess that means we are doing a great job... I am a glass half-full type of guy though. I know what the projection was. Again, how we react to this virus at this point is going to change the numbers. It would have been great to massively test and then isolate but we missed that boat.
JayFoster 100th Post Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 122

04-08-2020, 01:16 PM	#6
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by JayFoster I know what the projection was. Again, how we react to this virus at this point is going to change the numbers. It would have been great to massively test and then isolate but we missed that boat. Yup Would have been great to bet your life savings on the Saints to win the superbowl in 09, but we missed the boat...

04-08-2020, 03:58 PM	#7
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold What I am posting are nationally leveraged models and projections, you understand that right? You understand that, in mid-March 200k was projected with mitigation? Guess that means we are doing a great job... I am a glass half-full type of guy though. All of their numbers are only projected into July. They don't account for the virus spreading through the population after we leave isolation. Their model is a pipe dream.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342

04-08-2020, 06:21 PM	#8
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta All of their numbers are only projected into July. They don't account for the virus spreading through the population after we leave isolation. Their model is a pipe dream. Cool story... Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do. I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

04-08-2020, 07:49 PM	#9
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Cool story... Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do. I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this. That's not an opinion, that's an actual fact. The models they are using are assuming Wuhan like lockdown scenario and that we stay in containment. They don't account for the virus coming back and respreading. The Lipsitch guy who was a big part of putting together the governments model will tell you that himself.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342

04-08-2020, 10:09 PM	#10
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Cool story... Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do. I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this. The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342