Do you see a 2020 season happening?

The Dude · 04-06-2020, 11:51 AM

Originally Posted by ScottF

We had 1100 deaths yesterday in the US and 25,000 new cases.
People are still going churches and beaches. No plateau until people wisen the f*** up.

This. There are also a bunch of states that are way behind us on the curve. Many are still at the beginning stages. If people would just stay the **** at home this would be over faster.

blackangold · 04-06-2020, 12:01 PM

Originally Posted by The Dude

This. There are also a bunch of states that are way behind us on the curve. Many are still at the beginning stages. If people would just stay the **** at home this would be over faster.

Not really...

If you want to look at the data here are 3 sites you should pay attention to, or you can just go with your "feel".

Tracking:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Projections by state:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

CFR and IFR estimates:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

Avoid being scared by the MSM and look for the data yourself... turn off the TV.

hitta · 04-06-2020, 01:11 PM

Don't see it happening. The numbers are dropping because of social distancing, but this doesn't stop cases in the long run. We'll probably peak, come back down, and have a second wave. China has already started to get reinfected and they haven't even come out of lockdown. A casual Herd immunity for this would require something like 58% of the population to get infected. When asymptomatic carriers are the drivers and it is aerosolized, it's pretty much impossible to stop. Somewhere between 800k and 1.6 million will die in the US over the next 18-24 months from the virus.

neugey · 04-06-2020, 01:24 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

Don't see it happening. The numbers are dropping because of social distancing, but this doesn't stop cases in the long run. We'll probably peak, come back down, and have a second wave. China has already started to get reinfected and they haven't even come out of lockdown. A casual Herd immunity for this would require something like 58% of the population to get infected. When asymptomatic carriers are the drivers and it is aerosolized, it's pretty much impossible to stop. Somewhere between 800k and 1.6 million will die in the US over the next 18-24 months from the virus.

With all due respect, I mistrust any numbers coming out of China. Their reporting can't be trusted for an eternity of reasons. We need to evaluate based on South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, others in Asia and perhaps Europe and Australia.

My wife is getting tested this afternoon. She works in ER intake and has been having some minor symptoms over the weekend. Could be a false alarm and hoping it's just cold/allergy, but the hospital is requiring employees to be more on the precautionary side.

K Major · 04-06-2020, 01:55 PM

2020 NFL Draft will proceed in fully virtual format - NFL.com

AsylumGuido · 04-06-2020, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by ScottF

We had 1100 deaths yesterday in the US and 25,000 new cases.
People are still going churches and beaches. No plateau until people wisen the f*** up.

For the greater part people are complying. Yes, there are a handful, or less, of churches still meeting, but there are 99.999% of them following the guidelines.

hitta · 04-06-2020, 05:36 PM

Originally Posted by The Dude

This. There are also a bunch of states that are way behind us on the curve. Many are still at the beginning stages. If people would just stay the **** at home this would be over faster.

Actually, staying at home makes it last longer. As, I've stated before, there is a misconception when it comes to bending the curve. It suppresses cases. keeps hospitals from being overloaded, but it doesn't get rid of cases. It stretches out the process. This will stick around with us until a certain amount of people have been infected or we get a vaccine. It also allows time to develop monoclonal or polyclonal antibody therapies or other treatments while we are waiting on a vaccine.

blackangold · 04-06-2020, 06:48 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

Don't see it happening. The numbers are dropping because of social distancing, but this doesn't stop cases in the long run. We'll probably peak, come back down, and have a second wave. China has already started to get reinfected and they haven't even come out of lockdown. A casual Herd immunity for this would require something like 58% of the population to get infected. When asymptomatic carriers are the drivers and it is aerosolized, it's pretty much impossible to stop. Somewhere between 800k and 1.6 million will die in the US over the next 18-24 months from the virus.

Where are you getting your numbers from?

OldMaid · 04-06-2020, 08:33 PM

Yes. I

do.
This situation has to end one day, some day.
I believe the next two weeks are going to be tough.
May , things start getting back in order.
Teams would have been training now. Working out under the trainers, at least.
There will be a setback for all teams in those things.
It is going to be a faster draft. Faster training camp. It will feel faster .

August, preseason.
It is going to happen.

hitta · 04-06-2020, 08:33 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Where are you getting your numbers from?

Oxford/Imperial College models and Michael Osterholm. The models the US are using are assuming China like lockdown scenario and that we won't have a resurgence of cases. Lets do some ballpark math....25% percent of the population gets infected at 1% death rate...about 800k. 50% would be 1.6 million dying..it could be even more than that. The Oxford/Imperial college model puts it between 1-2 million. The idea that we can just lockdown and stop it is ridiculous, especially with asymptomatic carriers being the primary drivers. That's what the US models assume.

04-06-2020, 11:51 AM	#11
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,006	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by ScottF We had 1100 deaths yesterday in the US and 25,000 new cases. People are still going churches and beaches. No plateau until people wisen the f* up. This. There are also a bunch of states that are way behind us on the curve. Many are still at the beginning stages. If people would just stay the ** at home this would be over faster.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,006

04-06-2020, 12:01 PM	#12
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by The Dude This. There are also a bunch of states that are way behind us on the curve. Many are still at the beginning stages. If people would just stay the **** at home this would be over faster. Not really... If you want to look at the data here are 3 sites you should pay attention to, or you can just go with your "feel". Tracking: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Projections by state: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections CFR and IFR estimates: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/ Avoid being scared by the MSM and look for the data yourself... turn off the TV. jeanpierre likes this.

04-06-2020, 01:11 PM	#13
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,300	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Don't see it happening. The numbers are dropping because of social distancing, but this doesn't stop cases in the long run. We'll probably peak, come back down, and have a second wave. China has already started to get reinfected and they haven't even come out of lockdown. A casual Herd immunity for this would require something like 58% of the population to get infected. When asymptomatic carriers are the drivers and it is aerosolized, it's pretty much impossible to stop. Somewhere between 800k and 1.6 million will die in the US over the next 18-24 months from the virus. Rugby Saint II likes this.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,300

04-06-2020, 01:24 PM	#14
neugey Hu Dat! Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 6,590 Blog Entries: 13	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta Don't see it happening. The numbers are dropping because of social distancing, but this doesn't stop cases in the long run. We'll probably peak, come back down, and have a second wave. China has already started to get reinfected and they haven't even come out of lockdown. A casual Herd immunity for this would require something like 58% of the population to get infected. When asymptomatic carriers are the drivers and it is aerosolized, it's pretty much impossible to stop. Somewhere between 800k and 1.6 million will die in the US over the next 18-24 months from the virus. With all due respect, I mistrust any numbers coming out of China. Their reporting can't be trusted for an eternity of reasons. We need to evaluate based on South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, others in Asia and perhaps Europe and Australia. My wife is getting tested this afternoon. She works in ER intake and has been having some minor symptoms over the weekend. Could be a false alarm and hoping it's just cold/allergy, but the hospital is requiring employees to be more on the precautionary side. Rugby Saint II likes this.

04-06-2020, 01:55 PM	#15
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,018 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? 2020 NFL Draft will proceed in fully virtual format - NFL.com

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04-06-2020, 02:16 PM	#16
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,391	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by ScottF We had 1100 deaths yesterday in the US and 25,000 new cases. People are still going churches and beaches. No plateau until people wisen the f*** up. For the greater part people are complying. Yes, there are a handful, or less, of churches still meeting, but there are 99.999% of them following the guidelines. neugey and OldMaid like this.

04-06-2020, 05:36 PM	#17
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,300	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by The Dude This. There are also a bunch of states that are way behind us on the curve. Many are still at the beginning stages. If people would just stay the **** at home this would be over faster. Actually, staying at home makes it last longer. As, I've stated before, there is a misconception when it comes to bending the curve. It suppresses cases. keeps hospitals from being overloaded, but it doesn't get rid of cases. It stretches out the process. This will stick around with us until a certain amount of people have been infected or we get a vaccine. It also allows time to develop monoclonal or polyclonal antibody therapies or other treatments while we are waiting on a vaccine.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,300

04-06-2020, 06:48 PM	#18
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta Don't see it happening. The numbers are dropping because of social distancing, but this doesn't stop cases in the long run. We'll probably peak, come back down, and have a second wave. China has already started to get reinfected and they haven't even come out of lockdown. A casual Herd immunity for this would require something like 58% of the population to get infected. When asymptomatic carriers are the drivers and it is aerosolized, it's pretty much impossible to stop. Somewhere between 800k and 1.6 million will die in the US over the next 18-24 months from the virus. Where are you getting your numbers from?

04-06-2020, 08:33 PM	#19
OldMaid Site Donor 2014 Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 2,818 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Yes. I do. This situation has to end one day, some day. I believe the next two weeks are going to be tough. May , things start getting back in order. Teams would have been training now. Working out under the trainers, at least. There will be a setback for all teams in those things. It is going to be a faster draft. Faster training camp. It will feel faster . August, preseason. It is going to happen.