Do you see a 2020 season happening?

blackangold · 04-07-2020, 06:06 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane.

Great, thank you.

So, a few problems I find in your article.

First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested).

Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable.

Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020.

There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

The Dude · 04-07-2020, 06:18 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Great, thank you.

So, a few problems I find in your article.

First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested).

Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable.

Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020.

There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

You just dropped an atom bomb dude. Thank you.

burningmetal · 04-07-2020, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop.

Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process.

You're way overthinking it. The fact of the matter is that even the projections post "stay at home" have been cut in half, and they are still using worst case scenario. As spring settles in, the virus will keep dying. And HCQ, whether deep state Fauci wants to admit it or not, is working as a treatment.

It's not going to be 100% gone for a while, maybe years. That goes for anything.

Where we agree is that lockdowns are useless. And I know it may sound callous if not taken in context, but those who are dying from covid right now were just as likely to die from the flu. It's just a matter of which virus they got first. That's what the media refuses to acknowledge. But again, there is a treatment that is working to save lives.

hitta · 04-07-2020, 06:28 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Great, thank you.

So, a few problems I find in your article.

First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested).

Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable.

Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020.

There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

The thing is I don't care. You can pick whatever model you want. If 10 million people got infected in the next 24 months,about 100K would die. That's only 3.125% of the population. Do you think only 3.125% or 6.25% is going to stop an infected person from spreading the virus. The only reason the numbers are going down is people are staying indoors. What happens when they come out and you have asymptomatic carriers showing up. It's common sense what's going to happen.

burningmetal · 04-07-2020, 06:50 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

The thing is I don't care. You can pick whatever model you want. If 10 million people got infected in the next 24 months,about 100K would die. That's only 3.125% of the population. Do you think only 3.125% or 6.25% is going to stop an infected person from spreading the virus. The only reason the numbers are going down is people are staying indoors. What happens when they come out and you have asymptomatic carriers showing up. It's common sense what's going to happen.

Nobody is "picking" a model. You used an outdated one. And no, the reason the numbers are going down is NOT because of people staying indoors. They were making projections, factoring that in, of how many would be infected and how many would die, based on nothing more than a glorified guess of how many people had come into contact with the virus before the stay at home orders started. They way overestimated the extent of how much it had already spread. And as such, they have cut their numbers in half.

You don't get to go back in time and use the doomsday models that fit your narrative. THAT is "picking" a model.

And how are asymptomatic carriers going to spread anything AFTER the stay at home is over? Even though I highly object to the decision to close everything, due to the massive economic impact, isn't the point of a quarantine supposed to be to let whoever has the virus either get well from home, or in the hospital, while everyone else who isn't sick doesn't get exposed? I don't see how people are going to emerge in great numbers carrying the virus.

My thing is that we're already seeing that most people who get the virus are going to be able to beat it without any problem. So if anyone is going to be quarantined, it should be the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Let everyone else build the "herd immunity" while keeping the economy flowing. But I think even FORCING at risk people to quarantine is a violation of constitutional rights. Let them choose what risks they want to take.

hitta · 04-07-2020, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

Nobody is "picking" a model. You used an outdated one. And no, the reason the numbers are going down is NOT because of people staying indoors. They were making projections, factoring that in, of how many would be infected and how many would die, based on nothing more than a glorified guess of how many people had come into contact with the virus before the stay at home orders started. They way overestimated the extent of how much it had already spread. And as such, they have cut their numbers in half.

You don't get to go back in time and use the doomsday models that fit your narrative. THAT is "picking" a model.

And how are asymptomatic carriers going to spread anything AFTER the stay at home is over? Even though I highly object to the decision to close everything, due to the massive economic impact, isn't the point of a quarantine supposed to be to let whoever has the virus either get well from home, or in the hospital, while everyone else who isn't sick doesn't get exposed? I don't see how people are going to emerge in great numbers carrying the virus.

My thing is that we're already seeing that most people who get the virus are going to be able to beat it without any problem. So if anyone is going to be quarantined, it should be the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Let everyone else build the "herd immunity" while keeping the economy flowing. But I think even FORCING at risk people to quarantine is a violation of constitutional rights. Let them choose what risks they want to take.

The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread. The numbers I used didn't match either model. If you think the virus is going to die off in the spring, you are making a completely false assumption. The rate of transfer is much too high, this isn't influenza which has a sub 1 R0. The whole handwashing, surface cleaning,etc...those aren't even close to being primary infection pathways...there's not even a lot of evidence to suggest those are true pathways to infection.People are actually cleaning to a great extent, which probably doesn't even help a whole lot. It's mainly just breathing air. It will still be transferred via droplets. The humidity and heat may slow down aerosolized transfer quite a bit. The rate of transfer will still be high(higher than 1.5 at the very least). The summer months aren't going to stop air to air contact. I'm not overthinking ****, you are under thinking. The CDC has little to no input on what the government is saying right now, if they did they would be saying something completely different. They've pretty much been sidelined throughout the entire process.

I'm going to remember this thread though so I can come back to it later on.

hitta · 04-07-2020, 07:54 PM

"There is a simple truth behind the problems with these modeling conclusions. The duration of containment efforts does not matter, if transmission rates return to normal when they end, and mortality rates have not improved. This is simply because as long as a large majority of the population remains uninfected, lifting containment measures will lead to an epidemic almost as large as would happen without having mitigations in place at all."Wesley Pegden and Maria Chikina(Who are pretty well respected)

hitta · 04-07-2020, 08:42 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Great, thank you.

So, a few problems I find in your article.

First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested).

Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable.

Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020.

There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

Also the CEBM is based on the Oxford model, which assumes that a large chunk of the population has already been infected and that R0 is incredibly hight. They are probably greatly underestimating the IFR. Several other papers put it closer to 1%. Cruise ship studies disagree with this. Also, there have been a couple of towns in Italy that have been perfect testing scenarios. They all point to somewhere between .7 and 1.3 IFR.

blackangold · 04-07-2020, 09:19 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

Also the CEBM is based on the Oxford model, which assumes that a large chunk of the population has already been infected and that R0 is incredibly hight. They are probably greatly underestimating the IFR. Several other papers put it closer to 1%. Cruise ship studies disagree with this. Also, there have been a couple of towns in Italy that have been perfect testing scenarios. They all point to somewhere between .7 and 1.3 IFR.

There aren’t several that point to IFR at all, there are only a few institutions capable of working on it right now because it’s so new and data is so limited. Being that it’s limited as the study pointed out it’s more likely to be overestimated like the swine flu was.

I know a few posts above you said you don’t care what it really is, that’s fine, but I am just tired of seeing people fear monger. I am not saying that is your intention but for many it is and the fear caused by shutting the global economy down will cause more death than the actual virus.

What I know for certain, the next week and a half is going to be ugly...

hitta · 04-07-2020, 10:13 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

There aren’t several that point to IFR at all, there are only a few institutions capable of working on it right now because it’s so new and data is so limited. Being that it’s limited as the study pointed out it’s more likely to be overestimated like the swine flu was.

I know a few posts above you said you don’t care what it really is, that’s fine, but I am just tired of seeing people fear monger. I am not saying that is your intention but for many it is and the fear caused by shutting the global economy down will cause more death than the actual virus.

What I know for certain, the next week and a half is going to be ugly...

Fear mongering isn't really my purpose. I think people should be somewhat afraid. A temporary lockdown is good to assess how we are going to approach this, but the virus isn't going away anytime soon. Even if we went down to 0 cases, it'd come back China is already starting to have difficulties. There has to be some sort of balanced plan, otherwise our economy will fall apart. Most of these models that you see end in July. This virus will not be over by July and we also can't shutdown for 18-24 months. The government really needs to get the CDC involved(meaning more epidemiologists and virologists). You have to strike some balance between spreading it out and keeping the economy running. From all the data it is very unlikely that R0 is 3.58 like the Oxford model and the iceland studv suggest, so I don't believe the IFR of the CEBM. It may be lower than 1%, but I don't believe it's like .1 or .2%. Another thing to note, if the unmitigated R0 was really that high, we'd end up with like 60-80% of the population getting infected, so that'd increase the deaths, cause there's going to be multiple waves....I can pretty much guarantee that.

Also, I want to note that our testing is about to go to **** in like 4-5 weeks, cause the supply chains from China are shut down and the chemicals needed for the tests come from there.

04-07-2020, 06:06 PM	#31
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane. Great, thank you. So, a few problems I find in your article. First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested). Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable. Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020. There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020... https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/
	The Saints are 0-42 when running the ball less than 15 times in a game.

04-07-2020, 06:18 PM	#32
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,050	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Great, thank you. So, a few problems I find in your article. First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested). Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable. Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020. There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020... https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/ You just dropped an atom bomb dude. Thank you.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,050

04-07-2020, 06:19 PM	#33
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta That's why ballpark math limits the range of the models. I know from current projections of open R0 decent herd immunity would be established at around 58%. Will we ever reach that point... who knows. I think it is a fairly safe assumption that somewhere between 25-50% of the population will end up with the virus over the next 18-24 months. If we stop it now even with a full lockdown, it'll find its way back in. Asymptomatic carriers that spread through droplets and aerosols are impossible to stop. Sars which had a higher open ended R0 was far easier to contain, because the virus didn't shed until after symptoms showed up. This Covid-19 only really requires 1 person to restart the whole process. You're way overthinking it. The fact of the matter is that even the projections post "stay at home" have been cut in half, and they are still using worst case scenario. As spring settles in, the virus will keep dying. And HCQ, whether deep state Fauci wants to admit it or not, is working as a treatment. It's not going to be 100% gone for a while, maybe years. That goes for anything. Where we agree is that lockdowns are useless. And I know it may sound callous if not taken in context, but those who are dying from covid right now were just as likely to die from the flu. It's just a matter of which virus they got first. That's what the media refuses to acknowledge. But again, there is a treatment that is working to save lives.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

04-07-2020, 06:28 PM	#34
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Great, thank you. So, a few problems I find in your article. First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested). Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable. Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020. There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020... https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/ The thing is I don't care. You can pick whatever model you want. If 10 million people got infected in the next 24 months,about 100K would die. That's only 3.125% of the population. Do you think only 3.125% or 6.25% is going to stop an infected person from spreading the virus. The only reason the numbers are going down is people are staying indoors. What happens when they come out and you have asymptomatic carriers showing up. It's common sense what's going to happen.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324

04-07-2020, 06:50 PM	#35
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta The thing is I don't care. You can pick whatever model you want. If 10 million people got infected in the next 24 months,about 100K would die. That's only 3.125% of the population. Do you think only 3.125% or 6.25% is going to stop an infected person from spreading the virus. The only reason the numbers are going down is people are staying indoors. What happens when they come out and you have asymptomatic carriers showing up. It's common sense what's going to happen. Nobody is "picking" a model. You used an outdated one. And no, the reason the numbers are going down is NOT because of people staying indoors. They were making projections, factoring that in, of how many would be infected and how many would die, based on nothing more than a glorified guess of how many people had come into contact with the virus before the stay at home orders started. They way overestimated the extent of how much it had already spread. And as such, they have cut their numbers in half. You don't get to go back in time and use the doomsday models that fit your narrative. THAT is "picking" a model. And how are asymptomatic carriers going to spread anything AFTER the stay at home is over? Even though I highly object to the decision to close everything, due to the massive economic impact, isn't the point of a quarantine supposed to be to let whoever has the virus either get well from home, or in the hospital, while everyone else who isn't sick doesn't get exposed? I don't see how people are going to emerge in great numbers carrying the virus. My thing is that we're already seeing that most people who get the virus are going to be able to beat it without any problem. So if anyone is going to be quarantined, it should be the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Let everyone else build the "herd immunity" while keeping the economy flowing. But I think even FORCING at risk people to quarantine is a violation of constitutional rights. Let them choose what risks they want to take.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

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04-07-2020, 07:17 PM	#36
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by burningmetal Nobody is "picking" a model. You used an outdated one. And no, the reason the numbers are going down is NOT because of people staying indoors. They were making projections, factoring that in, of how many would be infected and how many would die, based on nothing more than a glorified guess of how many people had come into contact with the virus before the stay at home orders started. They way overestimated the extent of how much it had already spread. And as such, they have cut their numbers in half. You don't get to go back in time and use the doomsday models that fit your narrative. THAT is "picking" a model. And how are asymptomatic carriers going to spread anything AFTER the stay at home is over? Even though I highly object to the decision to close everything, due to the massive economic impact, isn't the point of a quarantine supposed to be to let whoever has the virus either get well from home, or in the hospital, while everyone else who isn't sick doesn't get exposed? I don't see how people are going to emerge in great numbers carrying the virus. My thing is that we're already seeing that most people who get the virus are going to be able to beat it without any problem. So if anyone is going to be quarantined, it should be the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. Let everyone else build the "herd immunity" while keeping the economy flowing. But I think even FORCING at risk people to quarantine is a violation of constitutional rights. Let them choose what risks they want to take. The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread. The numbers I used didn't match either model. If you think the virus is going to die off in the spring, you are making a completely false assumption. The rate of transfer is much too high, this isn't influenza which has a sub 1 R0. The whole handwashing, surface cleaning,etc...those aren't even close to being primary infection pathways...there's not even a lot of evidence to suggest those are true pathways to infection.People are actually cleaning to a great extent, which probably doesn't even help a whole lot. It's mainly just breathing air. It will still be transferred via droplets. The humidity and heat may slow down aerosolized transfer quite a bit. The rate of transfer will still be high(higher than 1.5 at the very least). The summer months aren't going to stop air to air contact. I'm not overthinking ****, you are under thinking. The CDC has little to no input on what the government is saying right now, if they did they would be saying something completely different. They've pretty much been sidelined throughout the entire process. I'm going to remember this thread though so I can come back to it later on.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324

04-07-2020, 07:54 PM	#37
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? "There is a simple truth behind the problems with these modeling conclusions. The duration of containment efforts does not matter, if transmission rates return to normal when they end, and mortality rates have not improved. This is simply because as long as a large majority of the population remains uninfected, lifting containment measures will lead to an epidemic almost as large as would happen without having mitigations in place at all."Wesley Pegden and Maria Chikina(Who are pretty well respected)
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324

04-07-2020, 08:42 PM	#38
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Great, thank you. So, a few problems I find in your article. First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested). Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable. Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020. There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020... https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/ Also the CEBM is based on the Oxford model, which assumes that a large chunk of the population has already been infected and that R0 is incredibly hight. They are probably greatly underestimating the IFR. Several other papers put it closer to 1%. Cruise ship studies disagree with this. Also, there have been a couple of towns in Italy that have been perfect testing scenarios. They all point to somewhere between .7 and 1.3 IFR.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324

04-07-2020, 09:19 PM	#39
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta Also the CEBM is based on the Oxford model, which assumes that a large chunk of the population has already been infected and that R0 is incredibly hight. They are probably greatly underestimating the IFR. Several other papers put it closer to 1%. Cruise ship studies disagree with this. Also, there have been a couple of towns in Italy that have been perfect testing scenarios. They all point to somewhere between .7 and 1.3 IFR. There aren’t several that point to IFR at all, there are only a few institutions capable of working on it right now because it’s so new and data is so limited. Being that it’s limited as the study pointed out it’s more likely to be overestimated like the swine flu was. I know a few posts above you said you don’t care what it really is, that’s fine, but I am just tired of seeing people fear monger. I am not saying that is your intention but for many it is and the fear caused by shutting the global economy down will cause more death than the actual virus. What I know for certain, the next week and a half is going to be ugly...
	The Saints are 0-42 when running the ball less than 15 times in a game.

04-07-2020, 10:13 PM	#40
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold There aren’t several that point to IFR at all, there are only a few institutions capable of working on it right now because it’s so new and data is so limited. Being that it’s limited as the study pointed out it’s more likely to be overestimated like the swine flu was. I know a few posts above you said you don’t care what it really is, that’s fine, but I am just tired of seeing people fear monger. I am not saying that is your intention but for many it is and the fear caused by shutting the global economy down will cause more death than the actual virus. What I know for certain, the next week and a half is going to be ugly... Fear mongering isn't really my purpose. I think people should be somewhat afraid. A temporary lockdown is good to assess how we are going to approach this, but the virus isn't going away anytime soon. Even if we went down to 0 cases, it'd come back China is already starting to have difficulties. There has to be some sort of balanced plan, otherwise our economy will fall apart. Most of these models that you see end in July. This virus will not be over by July and we also can't shutdown for 18-24 months. The government really needs to get the CDC involved(meaning more epidemiologists and virologists). You have to strike some balance between spreading it out and keeping the economy running. From all the data it is very unlikely that R0 is 3.58 like the Oxford model and the iceland studv suggest, so I don't believe the IFR of the CEBM. It may be lower than 1%, but I don't believe it's like .1 or .2%. Another thing to note, if the unmitigated R0 was really that high, we'd end up with like 60-80% of the population getting infected, so that'd increase the deaths, cause there's going to be multiple waves....I can pretty much guarantee that. Also, I want to note that our testing is about to go to **** in like 4-5 weeks, cause the supply chains from China are shut down and the chemicals needed for the tests come from there.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324