I would agree but... These 1st round draft picks are heavily vetted by many organizations physically, characteristically, and cognitively. There are absolutely zero excuses for making a 1st round draft pick and it being a wash other than process failure (note i said wash, not failure to start year one). If a team is not 90% sure of what they are getting they shouldn't pick in the first round just to splash a headline, it is a waste of resources, value, and screws other rookies in the draft who are ready..

First round draft pics vs starting rookie season is very much a skewed stat and drafting is more an art than inexact science. What the stat fails to account for are teams that draft BPA and not PON and already have a starter which is generally a draft pick with a future season in mind, this is a deliberate pick and has nothing to do with a rookie being able to tie down a spot his first year in the league..

The stat also doesn't account for the type of talent a draft pick has, some of these players have so much raw talent and such an extremely high ceiling it is difficult to pass up but the team drafting them know they have a lot of work to do. First round draft picks being expected to start year 1 is a fan thing, its the fans need for instant gratification and a win now mentality.

We do continue to develop after our teens but its minor development. A 21 year old idiot will generally be a 25 year old idiot in 4 years, while maturation can certainly slow someone down and certainly make them a more thoughtful decision maker, the behavior modification process after the formative years is subject to the law of diminished returns. Have you made a 10, 20, 30 year high school reunion? Not many make dramatic change after 21, spend much time on social media or here reading the fits of 60+ year olds ( I have actually been called a Boomer here so younger isnt exactly better either)?

Good decision makers are rarely made, objectivity is a difficult trait to learn because it requires a person to overcome emotion.