BakoSaint

I want to question this in terms of numbers.

We are about $43 million over the cap for 2024, effectively $53 million over assuming you filled out the roster with minimum salary players. This is not an obstacle. We can get under the cap. Loomis and Hartley are magic. But they can't do their magic without restructuring contracts.

In 2024 the dead cap would be as follows for letting Winston and Hill walk.

Winston dead cap if walks: $10.7 million.
Hill dead cap if walks: $16.9 million. $15.8 million if he stays.

Then you have Derek Carr, whose cap hit for playing in 2024 is $35.7 Million, would be $52.8 million if cut.

In 2025 Carr's cap number goes up to $45.7 million.

My prediction is that to get under the 2024 cap next offseason, Loomis will not be able to accept dead cap hits or paying players the planned amounts in the current years, he will rely on restructures as usual to get under the cap. That magic will involve reducing Carr and Hill's 2024 salaries to $1 million and offering Winston a similar restructure extension with a $1 million contract, making up the difference for all with prorated bonuses and added void years to spread out the bonuses. These bonuses will pay the players the difference between their salaries and $1 million, approximately $9 million to Hill, $9 million to Winston, and $29 million to Carr. They will save the Saints a critical $35 million or so off the 2024 cap, along with similar restructures for Thomas and Peat. Depending on the number of voidable years added, only about 20% of this $47 million in bonuses will hit the 2024 cap savings the Saints a lot of money. But, this means about $38 million extra will be associated with dead cap if we part ways with the players in 2025.

Due to the anticipated restructures in the 2024 offseason, the Saints will be further over the 2025 cap, and the costs of cutting each of these players will be higher in the 2025 offseason than it was in 2024 because of the salaries converted to deferred bonuses. So, the Saints will likely have to restructure all these players again in 2025.

This does not mean Haener can't be our QB of the future. It just means he has to clearly beat the other 3 options, and they will still be on the roster as backups, at very elevated salaries, with big dead cap hits if we ever want to move on. Carr's contract may look like it gives us an exit strategy if we want to move on in 2025, 26, or 27. Right now it does. But only if we don't restructure and defer more money between now and then. But we will restructure and defer more money. Carr's $50 million base salary in 2026 is real and will be collected, because after offseason restructure in 2024 and 2025 offseasons the dead cap to move on in 2026 will be more than $50 million, and we will convert his 2026 salary to $1 million + $49 million prorated bonus, guaranteeing Carr's tenure well beyond 2026, whether as a starter or a backup.