I think we all know that Allen knows what he is doing with the defense. I just don't see the scenario where the defense is the cause for any overall failure which would lead to Allen's being fired. If the offense shows any improvement early the team as a whole is going to be better and no way Allen gets fired under that scenario. If the offense comes out as bad or worse than what we've had the past two years then then Allen may not make it, but Kubiak absolutely would be gone as well because he has full say on that side of the ball.

Basically, if Kubiak is successful Allen isn't going anywhere, but Kubiak may get offers to go elsewhere.

Personally I hope we have Dennis Allen as our head coach for the next decade at least for two major reasons. First, if he's still around it is only because we would have been maintaining a degree of consistent success. Secondly, it would piss off that sinner guy to no ends.

I think we all know that Allen knows what he is doing with the defense. I just don't see the scenario where the defense is the cause for any overall failure which would lead to Allen's being fired. If the offense shows any improvement early the team as a whole is going to be better and no way Allen gets fired under that scenario. If the offense comes out as bad or worse than what we've had the past two years then then Allen may not make it, but Kubiak absolutely would be gone as well because he has full say on that side of the ball.

Basically, if Kubiak is successful Allen isn't going anywhere, but Kubiak may get offers to go elsewhere.

I can see many paths to such a scenario. They are all a bit unlikely but all probably have precedents.

1. The offense starts off ok and continuously improves, but the bottom falls out from the defense. No way you say? Consider that the best player on our defense, Demario Davis, is a 35yo linebacker. So far he has not aged a bit and is playing at his peak, but father time does not always RSVP. Consider 2014 Peyton Manning vs 2015 Payton Manning, who went from 39 TDs and a 101.1 QB rating to 9 TDs and a 67.9 QB rating and on and off benching in a year, the same year his team flipped and offense became its weakness and defense its strength. If Davis suddenly declines to complete ineffectiveness or gets injured for the season, it could be a big blow to the defense. Mathieu could certainly decline or be injured too. Jordan and Lattimore have already declined, but could decline even further. Adebo and Taylor are young and have shown great potential but both have been very uneven from year to year, if they both have great seasons we could be strong at corner, but if they both have off years it could become a weakness with Lattimore's rust and Kool Aid's inexperience. Also it is very very very hard to say that our defense faced a challenging schedule last year. We had one of the weakest schedules in the millennium and its greatest weakness was the offenses and QBs we faced. It could be that our defense was not so great last year and just fed off easier competition. So, I think its possible the defense could struggle and get DA fired. Then Kubiak could be named interim coach, and end up with the job if he fluorishes.

2. For the second scenario you only need to look one play back, the last play of the 2023 season, when the entire Saints offense defied DA and ran for a TD in victory formation. The Saints played this down and let bygones be bygones, but I have opined that they may never have really buried the hatchet, and instead they had no choice but to play it down, because 11 starters on the field and many other players off the field were ok with defying DA, and the Saints could not financially afford to threated to cut or trade all those players because they did not have enough room under the cap to absorb the dead cap hits, and in fact they needed to instead restructure many of the players to stay under the cap. Sure, they let a few walk like Winston and Peat, but they could not financially afford to call out Ruiz, McCoy, Olave, Kamara, etc. I can't remember exactly which players were on the field or sided with Winston on social media, but many more may have sided with him behind closed doors. So, the last play of the season was mutiny on the bounty, and there were no consequences for most. So in scenario 2, the team openly defies DA again multiple times early in the season, the Saints don't have the cap room to make cuts or trades, and either DA is widely perceived to have lost the team, goes on the hot seat in the national media, and is fired for losses and lack of confidence, or DA tries to flush out defiance with depth chart changes instead of cuts, and has to give more snaps to worse players to reward loyalty and that results in losses, kind of the Malcolm Butler effect. If DA is fire for 'losing the team' that was otherwise perceived to have strong potential, and Kubiak takes over and produces a winning record, Kubiak could keep the job.

3. Derek Carr struggles or is injured early, the team gets off to a very bad start, Kubiak turns Haener or Rattler into a somewhat a promising star (not great yet but clearly enough potential to start in 2025), but its too late to save the season. In this case, the Carr contract going bad and another rough season could cost DA his job or even lead Loomis to step back and bring in a new GM. The massive cap hit of Carr's contract could scare away other coaching candidates, and good chemistry with Haener or Rattler could make Kubiak the choice as head coach. Remember when the Browns hired a minimally qualified recent interim coach for the permanent job based on chemistry with Mayfield?

4. Dennis Allen could quit. This does happen. Health scares and disappointments have driven many coaches out of the game before. DA seems healthy enough but maybe 6 years of losing would be stressful. Maybe the team will miss the playoffs but show progress on offense, then DA will have some family tragedy and decide to step away, and then Loomis will view Kubiak as a great continuity hire.

5. Dennis Allen and Klint Kubiak could reach a philosophical impasse. There could be a key season defining decision when DA and Kubiak disagree on the QB or another major decision and are clearly feuding. This has happened between coaches before. Imagine that Carr goes down to injury, Rattler takes over and plays better, Carr recovers and wants to come back, Kubiak wants to stick with Rattler and DA is loyal to Carr, DA orders that Carr be given back the job, Carr struggles on his return but the Saints sneak into the wildcard on incredible luck with Carr limping through games. Allen and Kubiak are seen screaming at each other on the sidelines, DA orders Carr to start in the playoffs and Carr throws multiple interceptions, then Rattler comes in late and almost leads a comeback but the deficit is just too much, Rattler is clearly the future and Carr is the past, and at the end of the season Kubiak makes it clear that he is leaving if DA remains the coach and Rattler asks to be traded if DA is retained.

I can see many paths to such a scenario. They are all a bit unlikely but all probably have precedents.

1. The offense starts off ok and continuously improves, but the bottom falls out from the defense. No way you say? Consider that the best player on our defense, Demario Davis, is a 35yo linebacker. So far he has not aged a bit and is playing at his peak, but father time does not always RSVP. Consider 2014 Peyton Manning vs 2015 Payton Manning, who went from 39 TDs and a 101.1 QB rating to 9 TDs and a 67.9 QB rating and on and off benching in a year, the same year his team flipped and offense became its weakness and defense its strength. If Davis suddenly declines to complete ineffectiveness or gets injured for the season, it could be a big blow to the defense. Mathieu could certainly decline or be injured too. Jordan and Lattimore have already declined, but could decline even further. Adebo and Taylor are young and have shown great potential but both have been very uneven from year to year, if they both have great seasons we could be strong at corner, but if they both have off years it could become a weakness with Lattimore's rust and Kool Aid's inexperience. Also it is very very very hard to say that our defense faced a challenging schedule last year. We had one of the weakest schedules in the millennium and its greatest weakness was the offenses and QBs we faced. It could be that our defense was not so great last year and just fed off easier competition. So, I think its possible the defense could struggle and get DA fired. Then Kubiak could be named interim coach, and end up with the job if he fluorishes.

2. For the second scenario you only need to look one play back, the last play of the 2023 season, when the entire Saints offense defied DA and ran for a TD in victory formation. The Saints played this down and let bygones be bygones, but I have opined that they may never have really buried the hatchet, and instead they had no choice but to play it down, because 11 starters on the field and many other players off the field were ok with defying DA, and the Saints could not financially afford to threated to cut or trade all those players because they did not have enough room under the cap to absorb the dead cap hits, and in fact they needed to instead restructure many of the players to stay under the cap. Sure, they let a few walk like Winston and Peat, but they could not financially afford to call out Ruiz, McCoy, Olave, Kamara, etc. I can't remember exactly which players were on the field or sided with Winston on social media, but many more may have sided with him behind closed doors. So, the last play of the season was mutiny on the bounty, and there were no consequences for most. So in scenario 2, the team openly defies DA again multiple times early in the season, the Saints don't have the cap room to make cuts or trades, and either DA is widely perceived to have lost the team, goes on the hot seat in the national media, and is fired for losses and lack of confidence, or DA tries to flush out defiance with depth chart changes instead of cuts, and has to give more snaps to worse players to reward loyalty and that results in losses, kind of the Malcolm Butler effect. If DA is fire for 'losing the team' that was otherwise perceived to have strong potential, and Kubiak takes over and produces a winning record, Kubiak could keep the job.

3. Derek Carr struggles or is injured early, the team gets off to a very bad start, Kubiak turns Haener or Rattler into a somewhat a promising star (not great yet but clearly enough potential to start in 2025), but its too late to save the season. In this case, the Carr contract going bad and another rough season could cost DA his job or even lead Loomis to step back and bring in a new GM. The massive cap hit of Carr's contract could scare away other coaching candidates, and good chemistry with Haener or Rattler could make Kubiak the choice as head coach. Remember when the Browns hired a minimally qualified recent interim coach for the permanent job based on chemistry with Mayfield?

4. Dennis Allen could quit. This does happen. Health scares and disappointments have driven many coaches out of the game before. DA seems healthy enough but maybe 6 years of losing would be stressful. Maybe the team will miss the playoffs but show progress on offense, then DA will have some family tragedy and decide to step away, and then Loomis will view Kubiak as a great continuity hire.

5. Dennis Allen and Klint Kubiak could reach a philosophical impasse. There could be a key season defining decision when DA and Kubiak disagree on the QB or another major decision and are clearly feuding. This has happened between coaches before. Imagine that Carr goes down to injury, Rattler takes over and plays better, Carr recovers and wants to come back, Kubiak wants to stick with Rattler and DA is loyal to Carr, DA orders that Carr be given back the job, Carr struggles on his return but the Saints sneak into the wildcard on incredible luck with Carr limping through games. Allen and Kubiak are seen screaming at each other on the sidelines, DA orders Carr to start in the playoffs and Carr throws multiple interceptions, then Rattler comes in late and almost leads a comeback but the deficit is just too much, Rattler is clearly the future and Carr is the past, and at the end of the season Kubiak makes it clear that he is leaving if DA remains the coach and Rattler asks to be traded if DA is retained.

All very unlikely. Allen's retiring at some point in the future is the best probability with someone within the staff taking over ... after the Rooney Rule requirements are met, of course.

Barring some tragedy befalling Dennis Allen, I don't see any scenario where Kubiak replaces Allen during the season as was suggested earlier. That is what I was addressing. I doubt any of us would want anything bad to happen to DA or someone close to him. Er, maybe that sinner guy. haters gonna hate.

I am wondering if anyone can come with a good precedent for what many fans are expecting Klint Kubiak to become. Essentially the rosie fan argument is 'Yes, DA has been a mediocre head coach for 5 years. Derek Carr is under appreciated and will surprise people but doesn't need to be Patrick Mahomes. Because all the Saints were missing is Klint Kubiak, the most brilliant young offensive mind in the NFL, who will revitalize the Saints as offensive coordinator, make us Super Bowl contenders, bring multiple rings, and perhaps take over as head coach, or become the crown of the Dennis Allen coaching tree as they duel in many future bowls if he leaves.'

I honestly think the jury is still out on Klint Kubiak. He could be the next Sean Payton, Kyle Shannahan, or heck maybe Bill Walsh, or he could be the next Nathaniel Hackett or Josh McDaniels, its hard to know. His resume is mixed bag.

But where I have trouble is finding the past precedent, the mold for what Kubiak is supposed to become according to the Rosies. I genuinely want to hear who you think Kubiak will become like, and how that will prove a long term answer for the Saints.

My problem is this: when I look at great NFL offensive coordinators who won championships and become great head coaches, I see no precedent for what Kubiak is supposed to bring. Kyle Shannahan was a good OC and seems to be a good HC but never won a ring either way. Bill Walsh did not have championship level success at the OC level before he became an HC. Neither did Sean Payton, who actually had a lot of ups and downs as an offensive coordinator. Neither did Mike McCarthy who made but a small difference when he was the Saints OC. Joe Gibbs was a highly respected OC, but again could not win until he became a head coach.

So who, in the entire history of the NFL, was the genius offensive coordinator who elevated a seemingly mediocre head coach and good but not great QB to a championship, and with his later work was able to show that he was the difference maker and create a genuine debate that he was as responsible as the head coach for bringing a ring, by winning one of his own later as a head coach.

Has any coach in NFL history won a Super Bowl as both OC and HC? I can actually find two examples, that actually connect together: Mike Shannahan and Gary Kubiak. The problem is that neither won their rings under QBs or head coaches who were considered mediocre before their arrival. Shannahan came to a team that already had a Super Bowl winning head coach in George Seifert, running an offense installed by Bill Walsh with Steve Young and Jerry Rice. Then Shannahan went to Denver as head coach where he eventually won a couple rings with John Elway, while Gary Kubiak was his OC to an offensive coach with fairly minimal credit. Gary Kubiak was mostly then average as a head coach, until he finally won a ring after bringing in Peyton Manning, and won mostly on the strength of defense with Von Miller. Neither won as an offensive coordinator without a great offensive coach above them and a great QB.

I guess my point is that I don't think any coach who has ever coached football in the history of the NFL could come to a team with a .500-ish or worse veteran coach and a .500-ish or worse veteran QB and be enough of a difference maker to turn everything around on the path to a championship. If you cloned the the brain of Bill Walsh 35 years ago, choreographed his life to give him every ideal exposure to modern NFL offenses, and then installed him as the 2024 Saints Offensive Coordinator under Dennis Allen working with Derek Carr, I think the best difference he could make would be about what difference Bill Walsh made with the Bengals with Paul Brown and Ken Anderson, or what a Shanahan or Gary Kubiak accomplished in their other OC gigs without a great head coach or QB. Essentially I think the offensive coordinator miracle amounts to: 'Yours hearts failing - but don't worry we found you a kidney.'

But please, give me an example? When in NFL history has a new OC made the difference to turn around a franchise, and been able to make up for a seemingly mediocre defensive minded head coach and struggling veteran QB who could not even win a playoff games before?

Without really checking, Klint's previous stop in Santa Clara? He wasn't OC there, of course. And why he was considered and hired here. We'll see how things go in the beginning.