Re: Turning Attention to the Draft
 

You're going to have to cut him or live with him for one more year. What a great GM

Re: Turning Attention to the Draft
 

Carr's current deal if the Saints retain him is $10 million signing bonus and $30 million salary in 2025, followed by $50 million salary in 2026 which, although not guaranteed, could become effectively guaranteed if he is injured and cannot be cleared by the start of the 2026 season, for example if he suffered a torn ACL late in the year or a serious concussion that he could find doctors and lawyers to argue made it too dangerous to play again. The high 2026 salary gives him both some protection from injury and also some leverage in future contract extension negotiations with a new team, where if he played well in 2025 they would not have a cheap year on the books, and would either have to give him the $50 million in 2026, cut him and lose him for nothing, or give him a long term deal.

Essentially Carr's remaining deal with the Saints or whatever team trades for him, if he is not cut before the start of the year, is 2 years $90 million with $40 million guaranteed. So, whether Carr would benefit financially from becoming a free agent depends on whether the top bidder would give him more or less than that. Whether Carr would gain the ability to pick his team would depend on whether 2 teams would give him more than that.

In my opinion, no teams would give Carr that deal. I think teams would be looking to bid on Carr at $20-30m/yr, not $40-50m/yr but its hard to predict.

One factor to consider is that Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and possibly also Matt Stafford and Geno Smith, could be available in free agency or trade, so the market for older QBs could be a buyers market. Carr is the youngest in the group but Carr and Smith have by far the least playoff experience, and Carr has been much more banged up than Smith. And then there are also younger options like Darnold and Fields. Overall I think that in this type of market, most teams that would be 'interested' in Carr will be looking for him to sign a much more affordable contract than he has today. Sure, some mediocre QBs got overpaid on guys like Prescott and Goff have contracts that pay about 20% more than Carr. If Carr was the last QB on earth and your life depended on winning as many games as possible in 2025 even if that was only 7-9 games, maybe his contract is ok. But why would a team pay that much if they do have other comparable options and and can play them against each other to pay way less, or if the goal is to win a ring down the road not 8 games immediately? The Steelers got Russell Wilson for $1 million last year because the Broncos had already guaranteed his salary. If Kirk Cousins is able to make enough noise to force the Falcons to cut him, he could be available for $1 million too because his contract is guaranteed. Who is doing to see those deals and want to pay not less than $40 million for Carr?

However, it is possible that one team out there could accept Carr's current contract. Its also possible that while no team might accept the contract in free agency, one team would accept it if the Saints sweetened the pot by throwing in a mid-round pick in return for the cap relief of their accepting it. If thats the case, and accepting a trade is the only way for Carr to earn $40 million not $25 million next year, and to have $50 million on the books for 2026, not $30 million, then thats why Carr would accept a trade.

It's also worth nothing that Carr's $10 million roster bonus with the Saints for 2025 is guaranteed but also subject to offset. So I believe if we do cut him, he won't get any of that money, unless he signs for under $10 million.

Re: Turning Attention to the Draft
 

Back on topic …

Mason Graham - DT
Michigan

1st rd talent, a lot of mocks have him in the 10-22 range.

Shore up that defensive front with dawgs (see Philly).

Re: Turning Attention to the Draft
 

I can't see us passing up on a tackle if one of the top ones is there. I just saw Graham projected in the top 5 on a mock. He definitely would be a great pick. They seem to make them differently up there in Michigan... on both sides of the line. Though I'm really hoping for a trade down, I think Banks Jr. is a realistic and strong choice.

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We should probably target one of those DT's in the 2nd round.

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This would be a disaster. It would take three 1st round picks to move up that high. When has such a trade every worked? We would never have a decent oline. That would put too much pressure on a rookie QB both literally and psychologically.

Re: Turning Attention to the Draft
 

Graham at 9 would be nice.

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Later rounds

WR Jayden Higgens Iowa State
6' 3" 217
87 receptions, 1183 yards in 2024

https://youtu.be/5cQ1xcp8uu0?si=oQk5AqvTQWL47vIC

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Colston Loveland - TE
Michigan

POSITIVES
— Plus-level athlete for his size, good post-catch burst and acceleration.
— Outstanding catch radius to attack the ball at its highest point.
— Good route runner from a multiple alignments.
— Vertical speed to threaten the seam off play-action.

NEGATIVES
— Working on maintaining proper leverage and pad-level in the run game.
— Continuing to mature and grow into his body, adding muscle to his frame.

Early Day 2 grades

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So neaux former basketball players we can take three years to mold? :D

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Any top choice at 9?

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Green from Marshall is moving up the boards quickly. Dude is a killer. He destroyed all OT he faced before the Senior bowl. He had 17 sacks last year. He may just be the best DE in the draft. If Carter is gone, I would scoop him up.

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I wouldn't mind at all if we got a young DE at #9 and a DT in the second round. Start the youth movement on that side of the ball.

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The game is won and lost up front. That has always been true and it will never change. In my opinion, you don't draft for need. You draft the best possible player available.

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Sounds just like Marcus Davenport.

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I am fine with drafting in the trenches but if you have missed on a lot of picks at oline and dline in the first round its important to fire the people who missed on those picks and be willing to bench the players they picked. You cant build if you dont fire failures.

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But you still have Mickey Loomis and Jeff Ireland ..

Saints traded Ceedy, handed Philly Jalen Carter (draft for Penning pick) & let All Pro Zach Baun leave N.O.

The "strategy" of selecting players based on measurables "prototype", and not whether they can actually play football, is also part of the problem.

Gotta get that cap in order and HIT on those draft picks. Saints need a lot of young, new talent to truly compete.

Re: Turning Attention to the Draft
 

My moms lousy Medicare Advantage optometrist gave her glasses that don't work as well as her old ones and when she complains that something is wrong with the prescription they say no, you must have cataracts, and refer her to the ophthalmologist. Then when she goes there, they tell her no, you don't have cataracts. This has happened twice. I tell her that probably her optometrist has cataracts and that's why he cannot read or calibrate his equipment correctly and give a correct prescription.

Likewise, maybe the Saints don't need a prototype for their top draft picks, maybe they need a prototype for those making the picks. Maybe that prototype should be 0.0 blood alcohol level, white eyes, good kidney and liver function, well kept personal appearance, lack of awkward nervous habits, younger and more innovative, football background.

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We need a new vision for drafting linemen in the trenches. Maybe Ireland lost his magic. All I know is we have to nail this draft to get turned around quickly. I don't have faith in this front office when it comes to drafting in the early rounds. We do a great with UDFA's though.

Where is the breakdown in communication between the war room and the scouts?

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I think we nailed Fuaga in this last draft. I wouldn't call either Penning or Ruiz a swing and a miss at this point. Both are coming along nicely. McCoy is one of the best at his position in the league. It hard to tell what you are getting anymore since none of them are getting any real coaching in college. The same goes for defnsive linemen. There are two or three freaks of nature every year that go near the top of the draft. Beyond that you don't know how they'll respond to real coaching ... if they even get that anymore at the NFL level. With the last couple of CBA's the one on one time that coaches can spend with the players have been slashed even at that level of the game.

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No we draft poorly.

2018
Pick 14 plus 1st Round 2019 Marcus Davenport

2019 Boy did we miss out on defensive lineman here...
NYG Pick 17 Dexter Lawrence
TEN Pick 19 Jeffery Simmons
WAS Pick 26 Montez Sweat

2020
Pick 24 Cesar Ruiz

2021
Pick 28 Payton Turner
BUF Pick 30 Gregory Rousseau 26 sacks

2022
Pick 11 plus pick 16, 98, 120 Chris Olave
Pick 19 Trevor Penning

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I see nothing wrong with Ruiz or Penning at this point. Just like the majority of linemen coming out of college today they received little to no direction on quality fundamentals and technique. Both have improved a great deal since arriving. Hopefully our new OL coach can further their development. Hopefully the same can be done for Turner on the other line. The rare exeptions these days are the few linemen like Fuaga that come out and hit the field running day one.

Could we have drated better? Sure. Every team can make that claim. Hindsight is always 20-20 as they say.

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Jaxson Dart. I don't see this happening.

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Emeka Egbuka - WR

THE Ohio State

POSITIVES
— Natural route-runner, wins with nuance and detailed movements.
— Fluid change of direction, snaps breaks well to separate from coverage
— Comfortable reading and weaving through high-traffic areas with the ball in his hands
— Strong ball tracking ability all over the field.

NEGATIVES
— Does not use frame and wingspan to fully extend at catch point.
— Heavily used out of the slot, far less snaps throughout career on the outside.

Early Day 2 grades

Chris Olave is a star, but mounting concussions have me worried about his long term health. WR Rashid Shaheed is coming off a knee injury, and after that the room gets into guys like Mason Tipton. If this offense is going to improve, they need their wide receiver depth to improve considerably.


Agree with this ^^^. Saints are one injury from promoting practice squad guys who can’t get open as your starter by week 11.

A consistent, TALENTED chain mover is needed & necessary in NOLA ⚜️.

Re: Turning Attention to the Draft
 

Just how much is the QB partly responsible for the concussions a WR gets if the throws aren't leading enough or too high, or too far behind in terms of making sure the WR has the best possible chance for YAC and at the same time minimizing/mitigating opportunities for concussions? I just wonder if one were to compare the stats for Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, etc how it would compare to today's QB, not just with the Saints, but league wide.

Re: Turning Attention to the Draft
 

Hard to compare, really. Concussions were not tracked until fairly recently. I believe 2015 was the first year the NFL electronically tracked concussions. Basically, all of Marino's and Montana's careers were without any systematic tracking across the league. And only half of Brees' and Brady's careers had any real record of player concussions. It used to be hit them with a smelling salt and send 'em back out in fairly recent history.

I did read, however, that 2024 was the lowest number of recorded concussions since that tracking started.

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What a coincidence that concussions were not tracked before Carr joined the league, and since Carr joined the league the lowest number of concussions were in the year that Carr missed the most games.

I would consider Penning and Ruiz to be a swing and a miss, or at best a ground out that advances one runner when trailing by multiple runs late in the game. Penning and Ruiz has started games but they have varied from well below average to average at best. Penning was not graded as one of the best 64 offensive tackles in his best year. Ruiz peaked in 2022 I believe and settled in this year as the #38 guard this year where #32.5 would be the league average starter.

With a first round pick you are looking for players to reach the level of above average starter while still on their rookie contracts. Neither have reached above average starter, Ruiz is already past his rookie contract, and Penning is well below average with only one year left on his rookie contract and the Saints cannot reasonably elect his 5th year option for $17.5 million at this level of play. In the unlikely event that either of these players ever develop into above average starters, the Saints would gain little advantage from drafting them, because it would happen after they are past their rookie contracts, and paying market rate. If the Saints goal is to develop lineman who struggle early so that they become assets during their second contracts, we don't need to use draft picks to accomplish that, we could just sign disappointing draft picks as free agents and develop them from there while spending the picks elsewhere.

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Yeah. It's obvious that Carr was responsible for the vast majority of concussions in the league over the past ten years.

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Armand Membou - OT
Missouri

Brings serious pop on initial contact with powerful independent hand strikes - regularly stuns defenders and can anchor against bull rushes despite giving up height to most edge players.

Overall, Membou is a young prospect who is a loose, explosive mover with a dense, powerful build, good length, and a rugged demeanor that allows him to match up on an island in pass protection and deliver body blows as a finisher.


GRADE: 7.9 (Potential Impact Player — 2nd Round)

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Love this guy! I get him every time in round 3 mock drafts

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Mike Green - DE
Marshall

“The Saints ranked third to last in yards allowed last season, so they have to improve on that side of the ball. New head coach Kellen Moore saw the impact a dominant pass rush can have on a squad during his time with the Eagles. New Orleans selects Green, a very polished and productive rusher.”

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I believe he plays right tackle, which would fit nicely. I saw a mock draft from someone on NFL.com putting him in the top 15 picks.

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I'm afraid this would be a mistake. We're all guessing on these players, but he reminds me so much of Davenport. I just think we need to stick with players who produced against top programs in the first round.

We have seen the small school first round picks become disappointments with the Saints.

Marcus Davenport - UTSA
Peyton Turner - Houston
Trevor Penning - Northern Iowa

Big school guys could under perform as well, but why repeat the same things that have failed?

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Mykel Williams EDGE
Georgia


“The Saints need a lot of help on the defensive line at this point, and if Michigan's Mason Graham were available, he'd be the easy call for New Orleans at No. 9 overall. But that isn't likely to be the case, as I see him going fifth to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
As such, with the ninth overall pick, I see the Saints going with Georgia edge rusher Mykel Williams, who was a two-time Second-Team All-SEC selection with the Bulldogs”.

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Here's another guy that may be there in the 3rd or beyond that could step in as a starter immediately, at least in my opinion.

Chris Paul, Jr. - Ole Miss - LB

Christopher Paul Jr. transferred from Arkansas to Ole Miss for his final collegiate season after three productive years with the Razorbacks. During his Arkansas tenure, he compiled 137 tackles (68 solo), 15.0 TFL, and 6.0 sacks across 28 games, earning Second-Team Freshman All-American honors in 2022 and a spot on the 2023 Butkus Award watch list.

At Ole Miss, the 6'1", 235-pound linebacker elevated his performance, recording 72 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and four pass breakups through 10 games as a defensive cornerstone. His presence helped transform the Rebels' defense into one of the SEC's top units, particularly excelling in coverage where he limited receivers to 5.9 yards per reception.

https://youtu.be/VbkdeKcJTgg?si=GcxIT1NEaprd6k0c

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Jeff Ireland’s name doesn’t get mentioned enough on these questionable high 1st rd picks over the years.