saintswhodi

Billy = :sulkoff:

Where you at man? We were having fun.

GumboBC

saintwhodi --

To be honest, its not much of a challenge.

I clearly showed you where Brooks outperformed Elway in their 1st three years.

You say that\'s because Elway didn\'t have any receivers. I told you. I told you about the \"3 Amigos.\"

Mark Jackson, Vance Johnson, and Ricky Nattiel were the \" Three Amigos.\"

Obviously you\'ve never watched them play. Do some homework... or .... SOMETHING.

I simply don\'t care to do all of your homework for you...

BrooksMustGo

Peculiar.

A great discussion was going on with plenty of give and take. Plenty of collaboration. Plenty of friendly back and forth.

What Happened?

saintswhodi

I\'ll give you one guess. Mr. No facts comes in, spews some skewed idea of a comparison between AB and Elway for the first three years(Elways was in the Superbowl in his third) and calls some receivers good cause they had a nickname when Joe\'s stats were as good as all three COMBINED. Then when there are no more answers, there is the \"it\'s not much of a challenge\" sulk off. Brilliant. I asked for JKool 3 or 4 posts back and I hope he comes back cause at least he has decent arguments to counter. Gumbo\'s nonsense is too easy, and gets so pointless even he can\'t defend it.

JKool

Heya guys.

This has really devolved here. It is too bad that many people will now not read the earlier stuff.

Here are some thoughts:

(1) ABs stats have actually improved every season that he has started a full season in terms of passer rating (which is a rough summary of all the QB stats) until this year (when the running game was down, the line sucked and our defense sucked) - 76 in 01, 80 in 02, 89 in \'03. Thus, I\'m no longer sure I agree with this AB keeps getting worse thingy. He\'s roughly the same or better.

(2) I agree that the risks of a bust in the first round may have decreased, but they are still high. Even if they are 30% (and I\'d guess they are more like 40-50%), isn\'t that a bit high. We could have Bouman and a bust - 30% chance, or we could have Bouman and a average mid-first round QB who will have a passer rating around 70 and a 1-1 TD to INT ratio (70% chance, I guess), or we could keep AB and maybe draft his replacement giving us a QB who has a closer to 80 passer rating and a 2-1 TD to INT ratio (roughly 100% chance). Pick whichever makes you happiest, I will rest assured that sticking with AB - on statistical dimensions - is no worse than your choice of these.

(3) We agree that if the team far improves, who our QBs is matters much less. You feel that AB can\'t get it done; I don\'t see it - though I\'ve heard many arguments to that effect. Thus, if we improve our Defense greatly and our OLine greatly, I\'ll take ABs stats when he had Duece in full form, an OLine, and a slightly better defense (i.e. the three years before this one, which exclude the controversial first season when he replaced Blake) - again, roughly 80 passer rating, 77 TDs to 45 INTs (roughly 3-2), over the projected 70 passer rating and 1-1 TD to INT ratio of a mid-first round selected QB. Statistically speaking, does that not make at least some sense (enough so that an intelligent person could think it)?

Your point really seems to me to be this: if we improve a lot we can win with a rookie QB. Ok, I agree. However, if we improve a lot, given this statistical analysis only, it seems to me we will do even better with AB than with a rookie. Thus, non-statistical arguments about this seem to me to be the only available to the Brooks must go now camp.

(4) BMG can correct me on this, since he is the cap guru and I am not (and my most recent numbers are old and only from memory - which we all know is poor), but as long as Duece, Horn, and AB don\'t hold out for much more money, we should be able to keep all of them and sign as many as three \"big name\" free agents (each costing in the 2-4.5 million a year group) - which will do for two LBs and an OT (though OTs tend to be slightly more expensive than that), AND still sign our rookie draft picks. That seems like quite enough, without dumping ABs salary.

(5) Two things on this: (i) does that sound really that different from us, and (ii) was their defense almost the worst defense in the history of the NFL that year? I\'m actually just asking because I\'d have to say that Brooks had it tougher this year than Leftwich did that season (and performed better, see previous stats), but that is just a first impression.

I\'m not saying that I wouldn\'t prefer Leftwich, as I haven\'t really thought about that. I\'m merely saying, I don\'t see that this argument is all that strong.

Also, AB has improved every year until our team went as badly to pots as it did this year. See above.

(6) The three Amigos were a good set of WRs (I am sometimes fond of a - that was a different era - argument, I believe it may apply here). At any rate, I don\'t understand why the fact that people cannot remember someone\'s name from over a decade ago on a team we probably didn\'t cheer for means those guys sucked. That is an extremely unreliable mark of being a good player - whether someone can remember your name. How many guys are in the hall of fame? I can probably only remember a handful of THEIR names, and they were clearly good. I\'d bet there are a good deal of football fans who don\'t remember the names of the Saints WRs.

(7) I don\'t understand this adversarial view of posting. I thought we were trying to arive at as close to the truth as we could get; I wan\'t to believe reasonable things, that is why I bother reading other peoples\' posts (and from time to time change my mind on things). This is why people agree with one another and try to help each other out; it is also why one might help provide better examples and points to people they even disagree with. Fighting the skinny geek isn\'t all that impressive, hiring him a couple of goons and beating all three of them - now that is something.

[Edited on 31/1/2005 by JKool]

"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

saintswhodi

Point by point Kool. AB had a high passer rating last year, but how many fumbles did he have? Egads. Most when noone touched him. I don\'t care what his passer rating was after that, he led the league in fumbles and was close to the top in total turnovers. Doesn\'t do it for me.

Ab for his career doesn\'t even complete 60% of his passes. That is horrible. I don\'t care for that either. And Brooks\' ratio is 1.6 TDs for every INT. I don\'t see how that is too much greater than 1-1. Sorry my man. No rounding up there. If I can get a 1-1 qb who can complete 60% or better, I don\'t care if he is a rookie, i\'ll take him over AB. Leftwich is already over 60% in his second year. Again, with one receiver. Sorry bud, i\'d still take him in a heartbeat over AB. He went from a 73 passer rating to 82 in one year, again with one receiver. I also fail to see how where his defense was ranked explains a low completion percentage and passer rating. You are gonna have to explain that one to me Kool.

If we improve, I don\'t think we will do better with AB. I don\'t. He will be just as inconsistent. He showed it in the last 4 games of the season, all wins, all phases of the team playing better. I just can\'t get behind winning despite your QB rather than with him or because of him. I can\'t accept that. If we can dominate every phase of the game and AB still have a 60 something rating (Dallas game), we can NEVER count on HIM to be the one to take us to victory when everything isn\'t perfect cause you just don\'t know. 6 mil is too much to pay for that.

If we sign big name free agents at the positions we need, they will be a little more than 2-4.5 mil per year. LBs and Ts are paid these days. More reason to dump AB.

Remembering someone\'s name matters to me cause I am a fan of Football. Almost any Superbowl team, I can name key players. I posted the 3 amigos stats, they weren\'t any more impressive COMBINED than Horn\'s alone. SO considering the fact AB has had better weapons than Elways during his 1st 3 years as a starter, it\'s no surprise he has better stats. Elway also had garbage RBs and went to a Superbowl his third year. I am still waiting for AB to take us to the playoffs, maybe we can get Blake for the first 11 games again and give him a head start.

JKool

(1) McNabb\'s career completion percentage: 58.3% I guess he sucks.

(2) I can\'t argue the fumbles, but that was an aberration - it didn\'t happen before and it didn\'t happen again.

(3) I said that Brooks TD-INT ratio over the time he\'s been here is 3-2, which is lower than 1.6-1, so I didn\'t round up.

(4) Brooks TD-INT ratio over the two years Leftwich has been in the league is 45-24.

(5) I didn\'t say that I wouldn\'t take Leftwich.

(6) Leftwich was drafted at number 7; he is probably better than the guy we would draft at 16. I still maintain Boller, who was drafted at 19 is a much better REPRESENTATION of the guy we\'d get. Obviously, we are not going to get Leftwich or Boller, we are going to get a guy who is statistically LIKE them; it feels odd to have to say that, but that is what I mean.

(7) Who is our second WR that you are so proud of?

(8) There is no such guy. Leftwich didn\'t do it as a rookie (57%), Boller certainly didn\'t do it (52%), McNabb didn\'t do it (45%). I\'m not looking any harder - those three guys who we\'ve been talking about did not throw 60% and 1-1 in their rookie seasons. We\'re not going to be drafting a McNabb or even a Leftwich at pick 16 unless something exciting happens.

(9) When your defense allows the team to get down by a lot or puts pressure on an offense to score quickly (by allowing scores easily late in the game), a narrowed game plan that puts a lot of emphasis on passing in required (in fact, forced on the offense by the situation that the defense has created). This allows the other teams defense to simply back up and defend the pass. When runing isn\'t an option you put in the pass D. Thus, AB\'s passer rating could easily suffer from a narrowed game plan; with better pass coverage packages, defensive calls, and pass defending players in, what passer is going to succeed at the same level he could if he had the element of surprise, options, or the wrong defense in? I don\'t see why that wasn\'t obvious.

(10) Againt the 49ers, AB threw for 279 yards and three TDs. In the mean time, our defense allowed 27 points and 180 yards on the ground. Our rushing game combined for 46 yards. I will say this: AB won that game. I agree that he is inconsistent, but if you keep saying there are examples where he sucked, here is one where he didn\'t. Sure you don\'t know which AB will show up, but you seem to imply you know which one will and it will always be the sucky one - you have no good reason to believe that that I can see.

(11) You find the numbers on this and then maybe I\'ll believe it. What was Petersen\'s contract value for this year? What did we pay Gandy this year?

(12) I guess I\'m not a football fan, according to your standards. I hope you meant that to demean me in some way, because that is how it sounded.

(13) I respect your football knowledge. I\'ve said that before, but you need to realize not eveyone thinks of the game the way you do. Thus, while your ability to remember all sorts of peoples\' names is quite impressive, it says nothing about the quality of the player that other people can\'t remember peoples\' names. See my point about the hall of fame in the previous post for an example.

(14) You only posted the number of receptions those guys had that year. Post the rest of their stats including TDs, etc. and then you can say that Horn had better statS; as it stands ALL YOU\'VE SHOWN is that Horn has more receptions than the three of them did ONE year - nothing else. I\'m not saying you\'re not right in your assessment, but you\'ve seriously overstated your conclusion.

"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

JKool

Ok, that last post came off as a bit harsh, so I wanted to apologize for the tone.

It seems to me that I put out a bunch of arguments and then the response tends to be directed at the examples which are merely used to indicate that the argument is on the right track.

My claims are intended to be general, the examples are merely to help out. I would appreciate it a lot if people could tell me why my reasoning is mistaken - not make some points about the examples (they are just that, examples). If the general claim is false, fine; however, if you just don\'t like the examples help think up better ones; if no examples can be found, then I\'ll accept that I\'m wrong. Furthermore, if there is NO evidence for my general claims, I\'d like to hear that too.

"... I was beating them with my eyes the whole game..." - Aaron Brooks

saintswhodi

Kool, I love you man, but now you are just looking to argue. I posted their yards, catches and TDs. Here it is AGAIN:

I don\'t know why you have taken the disagree just to disagree route this evening, but that\'s cool. Now since Joe was good as ALL THREE in everything except yards, that clearly shows how garbage they were. And that was they year they went to the Superbowl. I don\'t know why you would even pick up this argument, it is just bad. As far as the 2nd receiver goes, the 58 catches and 767 yards for Donte is better THAN ANY numbers Elway\'s guys posted in that Superbowl season of his 3rd year as starting qb. Again, that argument should really be left alone.

Next, I don\'t say anything towards you to demean. I am a HUGE NFL FAN, and pride myself on knowledge of the game and more teams than just the Saints. I like to know a little something about all teams, but especially teams that seem to win while we can\'t. That\'s why I read Patriot Reign, I just like to know. It is not to demean anyone or feel superior to ANYONE, I don\'t doubt the majority on here know more than me, but I do know talent levels on different teams and where their strengths were. Clever nickname or not, those receivers were not that good. Those teams were 100% Elway, something we will NEVER get from AB.

As far as rookie completing 60%, Ben did it. HE was drafted at 11. Culpepper did it first year as a starter. Bulger did it first year as a starter, and his career is over 64%. Brady did it his first year as a starter, and he was a 6th round pick. I\'ll stop here also cause the list gets too long. Again, we can get a rookie to do it.

Even Brees\' career percentage is over 60, and San Diego has had WAY WAY WAY worse teams than us. Griese\'s career percentage is overe 60%. I could go on all day here. I just went down a list of QBs passer ratings and looked at their career completion percentage and pretty much all of them are over 60, and that seems to be the line to even be competent. McNabb\'s career is about at AB\'s but he has been to 4 straight champ games with much worse receivers. And I am sure anyone on this forum would trade AB for him in a heartbeat. Must be something about him beyond completion % huh?

The fumbles were an aberration, but turnovers for AB aren\'t. If it\'s not fumbles it\'s INTs, and vice versa. He is just incompetent.

Again, 45-24 is the ratio, but can we include the lost fumbles in there? I mean if he throws 45 TDs, but fumbles 20 times and throws 24 INTs, would you still consider him good? I wouldn\'t. If we go TDs for turnovers, I guarantee it is more like 1-1 or less. A rookie can do that or better.

Again, what happens to a defense who\'s team takes a half to get started? Are they supposed to hold teams week after week to no points in the first half while the offense attempts to get on track. AB led the league in red zone turnovers. I guess we should expect the D to overcome that too? Come on man. I am willing to admit the D was bad, but I ain\'t putting it all on them. When you have a team that EVERY WEEK does not score in the first quarter, and barely in the first half, goes three and out, and you already aren\'t that good, that may make you look much much worse. That\'s just my take though.

ScottyRo

A favored trick by the bashers to deflect strong arguments. Not that I wouldn\'t do it either.