Disappointed, very

Tobias-Reiper · 11-13-2016, 11:40 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

Too early to discuss the wild card. Nothing has changed from last week where the Saints control their own destiny in terms of the division.

According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division.

However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games. That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage, which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams.

Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie:

Win-loss % within division:
Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie.

Win loss % in common games:
Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie.

Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns.

So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out.

pherein · 11-14-2016, 12:58 AM

Originally Posted by K Major

I don't think it's been mentioned but our special teams is very bad this year.

Circle back to Giants game (blocked fg), Oakland (missed fg for a win) & Denver (blocked PAT & subsequent score). Our kickoff return turn team looks clueless out there. Hightower and Cadet have no awareness on returns.

McMahon should have been fired last year.

Yeah said it before SP is horrible and has lost a couple games.

burningmetal · 11-14-2016, 01:18 AM

Originally Posted by WhoDat!656

We all need to take a deep breath, settle down and look at this loss rationally:

We lost to an AFC team; virtually no tie-breaking implications

I don't think we play a team as good defensively, (possible exception is Cardinals) the rest of the season.

We are one game out of 2nd place; after we sweep out the litter box Thursday night we will be back at .500 and in second place.

I don't remember any additional injuries that look like they will be long term.

Was this game winnable; absolutely, but aren't all of them?

I know you're trying to give it a positive spin, but every year one person or another makes the comment that when we lose to an AFC team, there are no tie breaker implications. That is technically true, but it still counts exactly the same in the standings. If it were college, and we had lost a non conference game, you can say "well we didn't lose any ground in the conference standings". But that's not how NFL standings work, as we know.

We've now lost four very close games. You can't keep blowing opportunities to win games. That's my perspective.

Rugby Saint II · 11-15-2016, 03:07 PM

My mojo was all wrong when I got up Sunday. I was not happy putting on my gear that morning because I knew deep down inside we would find a way to lose this game. I knew it down in my soul. It's sad but true!

Even though we scrapped and clawed our way back I never felt anything but fear and desperation. I've been a Saints fanatic waaay too long to assume we would win before the clock ticked down to zero.....and then I've seen time put back on the clock when there was no time left.

I've seen the balls bounce our way during the Super bowl run and I've seen them bounce the other way the rest of the time. Right now I don't get excited about a turn over because some how we will find a way to give the ball right back to the opponents.

Sometimes I actually feel like we are cursed. I really believed that Katrina had washed our sins away. But nay! Nay I say!!! I'll still fly my flag and proudly wear my gear but inside I am ashamed.

7-9........again?

SaintFanInATLHELL · 11-15-2016, 06:44 PM

Originally Posted by Tobias-Reiper

According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division.

However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games.

I accept your challenge to analyze these tiebreakers.

That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage,

That of course is at the moment. My analysis operates on 2 presumption:

1. The Saints go 4-0 down the stretch in the division.
2. No NFC South team finishes with an overall higher record.

All bets are off if neither of these hold true.

which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams.

Higher up the chain. head to head is the first tiebreaker. Division record is the second. Under my conditions, the Saints finish 5-1 in the division. Atlanta already has a loss, and beating Carolina and TB sweeps them both. So under my two conditions the Saints has the best division record and no NFC South team ahead of them head to head or in the division or in the overall record. That's gives them the NFC South no matter what anyone else does.

Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie:

Win-loss % within division:
Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie.

If the Saints go 4-0 in the division down the stretch, then no one else will have a 5-1 division record. Tie broken at division record. If the Saints are 5-1 in the division then Atlanta can be no more than 4-2 as they have a loss against the Bucs and Saints.

Win loss % in common games:
Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie.

Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns.

So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out.

Which is exactly what playoff caliber teams are supposed to do.

SFIAH

SaintFanInATLHELL · 11-15-2016, 08:39 PM

Originally Posted by WhoDat!656

We all need to take a deep breath, settle down and look at this loss rationally:

We lost to an AFC team; virtually no tie-breaking implications

I don't think we play a team as good defensively, (possible exception is Cardinals) the rest of the season.

We are one game out of 2nd place; after we sweep out the litter box Thursday night we will be back at .500 and in second place.

I don't remember any additional injuries that look like they will be long term.

Was this game winnable; absolutely, but aren't all of them?

Originally Posted by burningmetal

I know you're trying to give it a positive spin, but every year one person or another makes the comment that when we lose to an AFC team, there are no tie breaker implications. That is technically true, but it still counts exactly the same in the standings.

It doesn't count the same in the standings. It's way down the list in terms of tiebreakers within the division and conference after the 1st tiebreaker of overall record.

If it were college, and we had lost a non conference game, you can say "well we didn't lose any ground in the conference standings". But that's not how NFL standings work, as we know.

Once overall record is out of the way, it's common games before non conference games come back into play. Wins head to head with a division/conference opponent and games within the division/conference are ahead of common opponents. In short division losses and conference losses are much more devastating than a non conference loss.

We've now lost four very close games. You can't keep blowing opportunities to win games. That's my perspective.

That makes perfect sense. The Saints would be better off with wins against the Raiders, Giants, and Broncos and taking the loss they should have against San Diego. I'm not sure KC qualifies as a "close loss".

But the bottom line is that even with the losses, the Saints are as well positioned as anyone else in the division.

My perspective is that if the Saints cannot win their 4 remaining division games at the very minimum, then there is no point in discussing the playoffs, close losses or not.

SFIAH

Tobias-Reiper · 11-16-2016, 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

... snip for the sake of brevity ...

SFIAH

After reading your response and re-reading my post, I see I made a mistake.

If we assume the Saints beat the Panthers tomorrow and the Clowns in January, the Saints and Clowns records will be equal on the head to head, but not for division losses, as losing to the Saints would mean a division loss for the Clowns. I did not count that as a division loss... duh!!!

So my bad. You win

11-13-2016, 11:40 PM	#51
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL Too early to discuss the wild card. Nothing has changed from last week where the Saints control their own destiny in terms of the division. According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division. However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games. That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage, which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams. Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie: Win-loss % within division: Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie. Win loss % in common games: Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie. Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns. So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out. Beastmode likes this.
	'Cause the simple man pays the thrills, the bills and the pills that kill

11-14-2016, 12:58 AM	#52
pherein failclownHunter Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: N.O. and V.A. Posts: 2,260 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by K Major I don't think it's been mentioned but our special teams is very bad this year. Circle back to Giants game (blocked fg), Oakland (missed fg for a win) & Denver (blocked PAT & subsequent score). Our kickoff return turn team looks clueless out there. Hightower and Cadet have no awareness on returns. McMahon should have been fired last year. Yeah said it before SP is horrible and has lost a couple games.

11-14-2016, 01:18 AM	#53
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by WhoDat!656 We all need to take a deep breath, settle down and look at this loss rationally: We lost to an AFC team; virtually no tie-breaking implications I don't think we play a team as good defensively, (possible exception is Cardinals) the rest of the season. We are one game out of 2nd place; after we sweep out the litter box Thursday night we will be back at .500 and in second place. I don't remember any additional injuries that look like they will be long term. Was this game winnable; absolutely, but aren't all of them? I know you're trying to give it a positive spin, but every year one person or another makes the comment that when we lose to an AFC team, there are no tie breaker implications. That is technically true, but it still counts exactly the same in the standings. If it were college, and we had lost a non conference game, you can say "well we didn't lose any ground in the conference standings". But that's not how NFL standings work, as we know. We've now lost four very close games. You can't keep blowing opportunities to win games. That's my perspective. dizzle88 likes this.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

11-15-2016, 03:07 PM	#54
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,052	Re: Disappointed, very My mojo was all wrong when I got up Sunday. I was not happy putting on my gear that morning because I knew deep down inside we would find a way to lose this game. I knew it down in my soul. It's sad but true! Even though we scrapped and clawed our way back I never felt anything but fear and desperation. I've been a Saints fanatic waaay too long to assume we would win before the clock ticked down to zero.....and then I've seen time put back on the clock when there was no time left. I've seen the balls bounce our way during the Super bowl run and I've seen them bounce the other way the rest of the time. Right now I don't get excited about a turn over because some how we will find a way to give the ball right back to the opponents. Sometimes I actually feel like we are cursed. I really believed that Katrina had washed our sins away. But nay! Nay I say!!! I'll still fly my flag and proudly wear my gear but inside I am ashamed. 7-9........again?
	There Are Two Kinds Of People In This World Being A Rugby Player Is Better Than Both Of Them

11-15-2016, 06:44 PM	#55
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,773	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by Tobias-Reiper According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division. However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games. I accept your challenge to analyze these tiebreakers. That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage, That of course is at the moment. My analysis operates on 2 presumption: 1. The Saints go 4-0 down the stretch in the division. 2. No NFC South team finishes with an overall higher record. All bets are off if neither of these hold true. which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams. Higher up the chain. head to head is the first tiebreaker. Division record is the second. Under my conditions, the Saints finish 5-1 in the division. Atlanta already has a loss, and beating Carolina and TB sweeps them both. So under my two conditions the Saints has the best division record and no NFC South team ahead of them head to head or in the division or in the overall record. That's gives them the NFC South no matter what anyone else does. Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie: Win-loss % within division: Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie. If the Saints go 4-0 in the division down the stretch, then no one else will have a 5-1 division record. Tie broken at division record. If the Saints are 5-1 in the division then Atlanta can be no more than 4-2 as they have a loss against the Bucs and Saints. Win loss % in common games: Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie. Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns. So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out. Which is exactly what playoff caliber teams are supposed to do. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

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11-15-2016, 08:39 PM	#56
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,773	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by WhoDat!656 We all need to take a deep breath, settle down and look at this loss rationally: We lost to an AFC team; virtually no tie-breaking implications I don't think we play a team as good defensively, (possible exception is Cardinals) the rest of the season. We are one game out of 2nd place; after we sweep out the litter box Thursday night we will be back at .500 and in second place. I don't remember any additional injuries that look like they will be long term. Was this game winnable; absolutely, but aren't all of them? Originally Posted by burningmetal I know you're trying to give it a positive spin, but every year one person or another makes the comment that when we lose to an AFC team, there are no tie breaker implications. That is technically true, but it still counts exactly the same in the standings. It doesn't count the same in the standings. It's way down the list in terms of tiebreakers within the division and conference after the 1st tiebreaker of overall record. If it were college, and we had lost a non conference game, you can say "well we didn't lose any ground in the conference standings". But that's not how NFL standings work, as we know. Once overall record is out of the way, it's common games before non conference games come back into play. Wins head to head with a division/conference opponent and games within the division/conference are ahead of common opponents. In short division losses and conference losses are much more devastating than a non conference loss. We've now lost four very close games. You can't keep blowing opportunities to win games. That's my perspective. That makes perfect sense. The Saints would be better off with wins against the Raiders, Giants, and Broncos and taking the loss they should have against San Diego. I'm not sure KC qualifies as a "close loss". But the bottom line is that even with the losses, the Saints are as well positioned as anyone else in the division. My perspective is that if the Saints cannot win their 4 remaining division games at the very minimum, then there is no point in discussing the playoffs, close losses or not. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

11-16-2016, 05:06 PM	#57
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL ... snip for the sake of brevity ... SFIAH After reading your response and re-reading my post, I see I made a mistake. If we assume the Saints beat the Panthers tomorrow and the Clowns in January, the Saints and Clowns records will be equal on the head to head, but not for division losses, as losing to the Saints would mean a division loss for the Clowns. I did not count that as a division loss... duh!!! So my bad. You win SaintFanInATLHELL likes this.