Disappointed, very

Tobias-Reiper · 11-13-2016, 10:40 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

Too early to discuss the wild card. Nothing has changed from last week where the Saints control their own destiny in terms of the division.

According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division.

However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games. That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage, which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams.

Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie:

Win-loss % within division:
Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie.

Win loss % in common games:
Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie.

Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns.

So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out.

SaintFanInATLHELL · 11-15-2016, 05:44 PM

Originally Posted by Tobias-Reiper

According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division.

However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games.

I accept your challenge to analyze these tiebreakers.

That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage,

That of course is at the moment. My analysis operates on 2 presumption:

1. The Saints go 4-0 down the stretch in the division.
2. No NFC South team finishes with an overall higher record.

All bets are off if neither of these hold true.

which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams.

Higher up the chain. head to head is the first tiebreaker. Division record is the second. Under my conditions, the Saints finish 5-1 in the division. Atlanta already has a loss, and beating Carolina and TB sweeps them both. So under my two conditions the Saints has the best division record and no NFC South team ahead of them head to head or in the division or in the overall record. That's gives them the NFC South no matter what anyone else does.

Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie:

Win-loss % within division:
Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie.

If the Saints go 4-0 in the division down the stretch, then no one else will have a 5-1 division record. Tie broken at division record. If the Saints are 5-1 in the division then Atlanta can be no more than 4-2 as they have a loss against the Bucs and Saints.

Win loss % in common games:
Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie.

Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns.

So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out.

Which is exactly what playoff caliber teams are supposed to do.

SFIAH

Tobias-Reiper · 11-16-2016, 04:06 PM

Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL

... snip for the sake of brevity ...

SFIAH

After reading your response and re-reading my post, I see I made a mistake.

If we assume the Saints beat the Panthers tomorrow and the Clowns in January, the Saints and Clowns records will be equal on the head to head, but not for division losses, as losing to the Saints would mean a division loss for the Clowns. I did not count that as a division loss... duh!!!

So my bad. You win

11-13-2016, 10:40 PM	#1
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL Too early to discuss the wild card. Nothing has changed from last week where the Saints control their own destiny in terms of the division. According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division. However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games. That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage, which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams. Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie: Win-loss % within division: Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie. Win loss % in common games: Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie. Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns. So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out. Beastmode likes this.
	'Cause the simple man pays the thrills, the bills and the pills that kill

11-15-2016, 05:44 PM	#2
SaintFanInATLHELL The Professor Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Lithonia, GA Posts: 2,783	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by Tobias-Reiper According to the tie breakers, your statement is correct, the Saints still control their own destiny in terms of the division. However, it needs to be pointed out, the Saints control their own destiny only if the 4th tie breaker kicks in, win-loss percentage in conference games. I accept your challenge to analyze these tiebreakers. That is the only controllable tie breaker in which the Saints currently hold and advantage, That of course is at the moment. My analysis operates on 2 presumption: 1. The Saints go 4-0 down the stretch in the division. 2. No NFC South team finishes with an overall higher record. All bets are off if neither of these hold true. which I think it's kind of shaky, as the Clowns have yet to play the 49ers, which they get at home, and I think that's a gimme for Atlanta. After the 4th tie breaker, nothing is controllable by the Saints, as the later tie breakers are weighted against Atlanta's performance against other teams. Higher up the chain. head to head is the first tiebreaker. Division record is the second. Under my conditions, the Saints finish 5-1 in the division. Atlanta already has a loss, and beating Carolina and TB sweeps them both. So under my two conditions the Saints has the best division record and no NFC South team ahead of them head to head or in the division or in the overall record. That's gives them the NFC South no matter what anyone else does. Currently, Atlanta is 6-4 and the Saints are 4-5. Clowns are going into their bye week. For the sake of argument, let's say the Saints beat the Panthers this Thursday night, and Atlanta Jan 1st. We also must assume the Saints will sweep the Bucs, otherwise the whole thing may end up in a 3-way tie, which is another story. Anyway, should the Saints beat the Panthers and Atlanta, that would put the overall record at a tie, and take care of the first tie breaker, head to head, but since that wouldn't break the tie: Win-loss % within division: Clowns are 3-1, Saints are 1-1. Unless the Clowns lose one more game than the Saints against a division opponent, at best the records match @ .833, which is controllable, but doesn't break the tie. If the Saints go 4-0 in the division down the stretch, then no one else will have a 5-1 division record. Tie broken at division record. If the Saints are 5-1 in the division then Atlanta can be no more than 4-2 as they have a loss against the Bucs and Saints. Win loss % in common games: Atlanta is 2-2, Saints are 3-3. Unless the Clowns lose one more game against common opponents, at best the records match @ .500, which is controllable, but doesn't doesn't break the tie. Win-loss % in conference: Atlanta is 4-3, Saints are 3-2. This is the only controllable tie breaker the Saints have an advantage on, but like I said, the Clowns still have a game at home against the 49ers, which I think is a gimme for the Clowns. So, yes, one can still say the Saints control their destiny in terms of the division, but that's going to require some serious controlling from here on out. Which is exactly what playoff caliber teams are supposed to do. SFIAH
	Super Bowl Championships: New Orleans Saints:1, Carolina:0, Atlanta Chokers: STILL ZERO Only Atlanta choked in an unchokable situation... Life is definitely good.

11-16-2016, 04:06 PM	#3
Tobias-Reiper Merces Letifer Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 4,161	Re: Disappointed, very Originally Posted by SaintFanInATLHELL ... snip for the sake of brevity ... SFIAH After reading your response and re-reading my post, I see I made a mistake. If we assume the Saints beat the Panthers tomorrow and the Clowns in January, the Saints and Clowns records will be equal on the head to head, but not for division losses, as losing to the Saints would mean a division loss for the Clowns. I did not count that as a division loss... duh!!! So my bad. You win SaintFanInATLHELL likes this.