Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2021, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Yeah, there is too much invested by organizations for it to be a crapshoot.

It doesn't matter how much money you throw at it, nobody knows exactly how a 20 year old kid will perform three or four years from now. If they did there would never be a market for free agents.

Boston Saint · 03-04-2021, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

It doesn't matter how much money you throw at it, nobody knows exactly how a 20 year old kid will perform three or four years from now. If they did there would never be a market for free agents.

There so much illogic here it’s not even funny. Because not all guys pan out “exactly” as expected it’s a crapshoot? That’s like saying two people go out fishing. One is the father who has been an experienced fisherman all his life, the other his young son out fishing for his first time. The father gives his son a cane pole with a bobber. The father uses his normal rod and reel set-up. Now either could catch a fish in this “crapshoot”, But Would you bet on the experienced father or the untrained son eventually catching more and bigger fish that day? How about the next day? Preparation does not always guarantee success, but not preparing almost guarantees failure.

Free agency didn’t start because the draft was a crapshoot. It started because players didn’t like being under the control of one team for their entire careers and players couldn’t come to agreement with owners on what their value was worth. They used to have 12 rounds of draft and no FA and rosters were filled out fine. Fact is There is no way in hell that if the draft was a crapshoot teams would spend the millions they do on evaluation of it. At some point team A started to really study the draft and do well with it. Team B noticed and said “Hey, team A goes out and looks at these guys and they are doing well with their picks. Maybe we should try that!”. Then team C caught on etc.

The fact that Brady was a late round pick doesn’t refute this either.
Maybe NE new he was going to be that good all along but realized no one else did so they could afford to wait on him. They could have maybe never picked him and got him as an UDFA if he was a crapshoot. But apparently he was on their radar enough to have them not take that chance. Obviously because of their evaluation of him.

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2021, 11:04 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

There so much illogic here it’s not even funny. Because not all guys pan out “exactly” as expected it’s a crapshoot? That’s like saying two people go out fishing. One is the father who has been an experienced fisherman all his life, the other his young son out fishing for his first time. The father gives his son a cane pole with a bobber. The father uses his normal rod and reel set-up. Now either could catch a fish in this “crapshoot”, But Would you bet on the experienced father or the untrained son eventually catching more and bigger fish that day? How about the next day? Preparation does not always guarantee success, but not preparing almost guarantees failure.

Free agency didn’t start because the draft was a crapshoot. It started because players didn’t like being under the control of one team for their entire careers and players couldn’t come to agreement with owners on what their value was worth. They used to have 12 rounds of draft and no FA and rosters were filled out fine. Fact is There is no way in hell that if the draft was a crapshoot teams would spend the millions they do on evaluation of it. At some point team A started to really study the draft and do well with it. Team B noticed and said “Hey, team A goes out and looks at these guys and they are doing well with their picks. Maybe we should try that!”. Then team C caught on etc.

The fact that Brady was a late round pick doesn’t refute this either.
Maybe NE new he was going to be that good all along but realized no one else did so they could afford to wait on him. They could have maybe never picked him and got him as an UDFA if he was a crapshoot. But apparently he was on their radar enough to have them not take that chance. Obviously because of their evaluation of him.

First of all the Patriots admittedly didn't even discuss Brady until the fourth round according to Charlie Weis. He said they took a flyer on Brady with no real expectations. They got lucky.

Once again, the draft has been labeled as a crapshoot for decades. That's not something I coined. In fact, I likened it more as the game of blackjack where a knowledgeable gambler is more likely to come out better than someone less skilled. But because of the unknowns any individual pick has a chance to turn out well or be a total bust. Higher round picks usually are those players with less unknowns and logically rate out as being more successful in the long run.

Going back to your fishing example, while the experienced father with the good gear should catch more fish than the kid with the cane pole over time, he is still likely have a bad day here or there because he doesn't know beyond all doubt where the fish are and what they want to bite. The kid may luckily drop his line right in front of the nose of a hungry lunker.

Nobody labeling the draft as a crapshoot is saying that there is no skill whatsoever involved. That would be illogical. However, it is also illogical to assume that there are no unknowns factored into the drafting process. There exists a certain degree of gamble with every selection. This is the point being made by those that came up with the label of a crapshoot. I agree that craps is far less skill related than is blackjack, but both, along with the NFL draft, are in their own ways a gamble.

View Poll Results: After three seasons, what grade do you give the Saints for the 2018 Draft Haul?
A	1	7.69%
B	3	23.08%
C	2	15.38%
D	5	38.46%
F	2	15.38%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

03-04-2021, 09:40 AM	#1
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint Yeah, there is too much invested by organizations for it to be a crapshoot. It doesn't matter how much money you throw at it, nobody knows exactly how a 20 year old kid will perform three or four years from now. If they did there would never be a market for free agents.

03-04-2021, 10:16 AM	#2
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido It doesn't matter how much money you throw at it, nobody knows exactly how a 20 year old kid will perform three or four years from now. If they did there would never be a market for free agents. There so much illogic here it’s not even funny. Because not all guys pan out “exactly” as expected it’s a crapshoot? That’s like saying two people go out fishing. One is the father who has been an experienced fisherman all his life, the other his young son out fishing for his first time. The father gives his son a cane pole with a bobber. The father uses his normal rod and reel set-up. Now either could catch a fish in this “crapshoot”, But Would you bet on the experienced father or the untrained son eventually catching more and bigger fish that day? How about the next day? Preparation does not always guarantee success, but not preparing almost guarantees failure. Free agency didn’t start because the draft was a crapshoot. It started because players didn’t like being under the control of one team for their entire careers and players couldn’t come to agreement with owners on what their value was worth. They used to have 12 rounds of draft and no FA and rosters were filled out fine. Fact is There is no way in hell that if the draft was a crapshoot teams would spend the millions they do on evaluation of it. At some point team A started to really study the draft and do well with it. Team B noticed and said “Hey, team A goes out and looks at these guys and they are doing well with their picks. Maybe we should try that!”. Then team C caught on etc. The fact that Brady was a late round pick doesn’t refute this either. Maybe NE new he was going to be that good all along but realized no one else did so they could afford to wait on him. They could have maybe never picked him and got him as an UDFA if he was a crapshoot. But apparently he was on their radar enough to have them not take that chance. Obviously because of their evaluation of him.
	You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

03-04-2021, 11:04 AM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint There so much illogic here it’s not even funny. Because not all guys pan out “exactly” as expected it’s a crapshoot? That’s like saying two people go out fishing. One is the father who has been an experienced fisherman all his life, the other his young son out fishing for his first time. The father gives his son a cane pole with a bobber. The father uses his normal rod and reel set-up. Now either could catch a fish in this “crapshoot”, But Would you bet on the experienced father or the untrained son eventually catching more and bigger fish that day? How about the next day? Preparation does not always guarantee success, but not preparing almost guarantees failure. Free agency didn’t start because the draft was a crapshoot. It started because players didn’t like being under the control of one team for their entire careers and players couldn’t come to agreement with owners on what their value was worth. They used to have 12 rounds of draft and no FA and rosters were filled out fine. Fact is There is no way in hell that if the draft was a crapshoot teams would spend the millions they do on evaluation of it. At some point team A started to really study the draft and do well with it. Team B noticed and said “Hey, team A goes out and looks at these guys and they are doing well with their picks. Maybe we should try that!”. Then team C caught on etc. The fact that Brady was a late round pick doesn’t refute this either. Maybe NE new he was going to be that good all along but realized no one else did so they could afford to wait on him. They could have maybe never picked him and got him as an UDFA if he was a crapshoot. But apparently he was on their radar enough to have them not take that chance. Obviously because of their evaluation of him. First of all the Patriots admittedly didn't even discuss Brady until the fourth round according to Charlie Weis. He said they took a flyer on Brady with no real expectations. They got lucky. Once again, the draft has been labeled as a crapshoot for decades. That's not something I coined. In fact, I likened it more as the game of blackjack where a knowledgeable gambler is more likely to come out better than someone less skilled. But because of the unknowns any individual pick has a chance to turn out well or be a total bust. Higher round picks usually are those players with less unknowns and logically rate out as being more successful in the long run. Going back to your fishing example, while the experienced father with the good gear should catch more fish than the kid with the cane pole over time, he is still likely have a bad day here or there because he doesn't know beyond all doubt where the fish are and what they want to bite. The kid may luckily drop his line right in front of the nose of a hungry lunker. Nobody labeling the draft as a crapshoot is saying that there is no skill whatsoever involved. That would be illogical. However, it is also illogical to assume that there are no unknowns factored into the drafting process. There exists a certain degree of gamble with every selection. This is the point being made by those that came up with the label of a crapshoot. I agree that craps is far less skill related than is blackjack, but both, along with the NFL draft, are in their own ways a gamble.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill