Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 03:18 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

...Another way to fill those holes is with proven commodities via free agency. Look at what Tampa Bay did. They supplemented starting lineups on both sides of the ball with key FA's and other veterans that earned them the Super Bowl...

It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019

Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting.
Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White.
Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft

Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards.
Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.

SaintGnome · 03-03-2021, 06:37 PM

Originally Posted by gosaints1

In rounds 1-5, the vast majority of draft choices make their team AND contribute on the field, at some point that year, if nothing more other than depth and giving a breather to the starting 11’s. That depth is critical!

“Average”, “Good”, “Great” and “Legendary” are subjective statements, and mean absolutely nothing to the fundamental statistics. And the fundamental statistics clearly indicate that drafted players make their rosters, and play during that year.

A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft.

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 07:38 PM

Originally Posted by SaintGnome

A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft.

Good is subjective. QB’s should be the leader of the team, and most often also the locker room leader. So, I’ll agree to the fact that a “good” QB isn’t ideal. That being said, there are many other positions that aren’t as high profile as the QB who play and make an impact, without being the face of the organization.

You build your team through the draft, fill in the holes with free agency. One without the other is useless. Most drafted players play for their respective teams, and are developed by them. Few fail to make the team or fail to play.

The idea that the draft is a crapshoot, outside of hoping the first round QB you picked is going to make it, is nonsense. You can’t buy a locker-room.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...a-locker-room/

Free agency is critical, so is the draft. The salary cap hits you when you focus on free agent veteran acquisitions too heavily. And it’s painful getting out from under that weight.

Rugby Saint II · 03-03-2021, 10:05 AM

We own the UDFA market. New Orleans is where people can make a name for themselves and Payton picks the player for the roster because of the fit not their draft position. The league knows that and New Orleans is a desired location.

Boston Saint · 03-03-2021, 12:10 PM

The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league.

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 12:31 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league.

It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long.

Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years.

Boston Saint · 03-03-2021, 12:36 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long.

Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years.

So you see my point about the numbers being...flexible depending on the parameters set?

AsylumGuido · 03-03-2021, 12:40 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

So you see my point about the numbers being...flexible depending on the parameters set?

Yes. Both the 3.3 year average career and the 35% of rookies making the roster are defendable based upon those set parameters. It just goes to show the importance of context.

Boston Saint · 03-03-2021, 12:42 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Yes. Both the 3.3 year average career and the 35% of rookies making the roster are defendable based upon those set parameters. It just goes to show the importance of context.

O, you missed the point. You went from 35% of drafted players to 35% of “rookies” which you loosely defined

gosaints1 · 03-03-2021, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Yes. Both the 3.3 year average career and the 35% of rookies making the roster are defendable based upon those set parameters. It just goes to show the importance of context.

That 3.3 statistic is faulty, it comes from malformed logic by a geek at WSJ, and CNNSI picked up on it and declared it dogma.

Here:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...etting-shorter

Regardless, once again, years until retirement is unimportant to the discussion over drafted rookies making a roster.

View Poll Results: After three seasons, what grade do you give the Saints for the 2018 Draft Haul?
A	1	7.69%
B	3	23.08%
C	2	15.38%
D	5	38.46%
F	2	15.38%
Voters: 13. You may not vote on this poll

03-03-2021, 03:18 PM	#1
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido ...Another way to fill those holes is with proven commodities via free agency. Look at what Tampa Bay did. They supplemented starting lineups on both sides of the ball with key FA's and other veterans that earned them the Super Bowl... It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019 Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting. Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft. Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White. Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards. Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft. A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-03-2021, 06:37 PM	#2
SaintGnome 500th Post Join Date: Jul 2017 Location: Bradenton,FL Posts: 642	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by gosaints1 In rounds 1-5, the vast majority of draft choices make their team AND contribute on the field, at some point that year, if nothing more other than depth and giving a breather to the starting 11’s. That depth is critical! “Average”, “Good”, “Great” and “Legendary” are subjective statements, and mean absolutely nothing to the fundamental statistics. And the fundamental statistics clearly indicate that drafted players make their rosters, and play during that year. A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft. AsylumGuido likes this.

03-03-2021, 07:38 PM	#3
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by SaintGnome A good draft pick isn't just someone who get's signed by the team and plays in games for his drafting team. By that definition Danny Wuerfell was a good pick and that noodle arm was a complete waste. Good drafts mean the drafted player played well for us, made meaningful contributions. If you sign and start your entire draft, and it's a crappy team that's not a good draft. Good is subjective. QB’s should be the leader of the team, and most often also the locker room leader. So, I’ll agree to the fact that a “good” QB isn’t ideal. That being said, there are many other positions that aren’t as high profile as the QB who play and make an impact, without being the face of the organization. You build your team through the draft, fill in the holes with free agency. One without the other is useless. Most drafted players play for their respective teams, and are developed by them. Few fail to make the team or fail to play. The idea that the draft is a crapshoot, outside of hoping the first round QB you picked is going to make it, is nonsense. You can’t buy a locker-room. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...a-locker-room/ Free agency is critical, so is the draft. The salary cap hits you when you focus on free agent veteran acquisitions too heavily. And it’s painful getting out from under that weight.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576

03-03-2021, 10:05 AM	#4
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,117	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire We own the UDFA market. New Orleans is where people can make a name for themselves and Payton picks the player for the roster because of the fit not their draft position. The league knows that and New Orleans is a desired location.

03-03-2021, 12:10 PM	#5
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league.

03-03-2021, 12:31 PM	#6
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint The league likes to claim that the average players career is 3.3 years. At 1700 players (32 x 53) that means the league must import 515 players a year to maintain stability. So, somehow those numbers don’t add up. If we go with the 650 mentioned earlier, then 515/650 sure isn’t 35 percent. So either the claim of a 3.3 career average is wrong, or a lot more than 35% of rookies make the league. It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long. Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years. Boston Saint likes this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

03-03-2021, 12:36 PM	#7
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido It would have to be the average length of a career, because it is absolutely verifiable the number of rookies drafted and signed as UDFA's every year and also make the opening day roster. However, what isn't included is the number of rookies that are picked up during the season. Practice squads are continuously evolving all season long. Another possible factor is that a rookie signed to a 90 man roster and cut and never resigned has a career length of zero which is factored into the overall number. With that in mind an average career of 3.3 years makes perfect sense. If only 246 of 650 signed rookies made the week one roster in 2020 it means that 404 2020 rookies potentially had careers of zero years. So you see my point about the numbers being...flexible depending on the parameters set? AsylumGuido likes this.

03-03-2021, 12:40 PM	#8
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,472	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by Boston Saint So you see my point about the numbers being...flexible depending on the parameters set? Yes. Both the 3.3 year average career and the 35% of rookies making the roster are defendable based upon those set parameters. It just goes to show the importance of context.

03-03-2021, 12:42 PM	#9
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Yes. Both the 3.3 year average career and the 35% of rookies making the roster are defendable based upon those set parameters. It just goes to show the importance of context. O, you missed the point. You went from 35% of drafted players to 35% of “rookies” which you loosely defined gosaints1 likes this.

03-03-2021, 01:33 PM	#10
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576	Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in \| USA Today/SaintsWire Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Yes. Both the 3.3 year average career and the 35% of rookies making the roster are defendable based upon those set parameters. It just goes to show the importance of context. That 3.3 statistic is faulty, it comes from malformed logic by a geek at WSJ, and CNNSI picked up on it and declared it dogma. Here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...etting-shorter Regardless, once again, years until retirement is unimportant to the discussion over drafted rookies making a roster.
gosaints1 500th Post Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 576