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View Poll Results: After three seasons, what grade do you give the Saints for the 2018 Draft Haul?
A 1 7.69%
B 3 23.08%
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Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

this is a discussion within the Saints Community Forum; Originally Posted by Boston Saint I have a hard time believing only 35 percent of guys drafted make rosters. There are 224 picks a year (a few extra for compensation picks). 35 percent of that is just over 78 guys, ...

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Old 03-03-2021, 08:51 AM   #1
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by Boston Saint View Post
I have a hard time believing only 35 percent of guys drafted make rosters. There are 224 picks a year (a few extra for compensation picks). 35 percent of that is just over 78 guys, so let’s round to 80. I easily could be mistaken, but I would think more than 80 guys a draft class make a roster. That doesn’t even get you through round 3.
It probably includes UDFA's.

I know profootballreference.com had a metric that measured success of actual draft choices called "draft value" or something like that. Here's some numbers from a 20 year study ending in 2017.

10.5% average
12.3% good
6.8% great
1% legendary

That leaves 69.4% that were rated below that.
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Old 03-03-2021, 09:28 AM   #2
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

There were at least 409 UFDA's last year. Combined with draft picks it would come out to around 650. 35% of that would be around 227, or a little over seven per team. Last year 246 rookies made NFL week one rosters.

That would make it 38% of rookies that were on 90 man rosters made it to the week one roster in 2020.

Here's an interesting chart. Only 34 UFDA's made rosters in 2020, way down from 78 UFDA's in 2013.

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Old 03-03-2021, 01:28 PM   #3
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
There were at least 409 UFDA's last year. Combined with draft picks it would come out to around 650. 35% of that would be around 227, or a little over seven per team. Last year 246 rookies made NFL week one rosters.

That would make it 38% of rookies that were on 90 man rosters made it to the week one roster in 2020.

Here's an interesting chart. Only 34 UFDA's made rosters in 2020, way down from 78 UFDA's in 2013.

UDFA are unimportant to the argument wrt whether draft choices contribute, or don’t, and whether they actually make their rosters. Why you brought UDFA’s into the discussion only proves that you’re trying to massage, even create, numbers to support your belief.

Stay on topic, let’s discuss how important the draft actually is. Not the entire world that isn’t inclusive of the actual NFL draft.
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Old 03-03-2021, 01:21 PM   #4
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
It probably includes UDFA's.

I know profootballreference.com had a metric that measured success of actual draft choices called "draft value" or something like that. Here's some numbers from a 20 year study ending in 2017.

10.5% average
12.3% good
6.8% great
1% legendary

That leaves 69.4% that were rated below that.
The draft is completely separated from the free agency and undrafted folks. What we’re talking about right now is the success of the actual NFL draft. Actually drafting folks with selections through rounds in the draft. Debating the question of how important it is to have draft picks, during the draft, not diluted by the sheer number of players evaluated as UDFA. And OVERWHELMINGLY, those players, that are selected via the draft, are on rosters. Let’s look at the 2019 draft:

254 players were selected in the draft, 213 of them played in a game that season. That’s 83.85%, if my division is good enough. In rounds 1-3, only 1 player didn’t play due to a non-injury designation. That player was Jacha Polite, selected by the Jets at 68 overall who was cut in preseason, but was immediately signed by the Rams and placed on their practice squad. In rounds 4-5, again only one player failed to make an active roster, Clayton Thorson, selected by the Eagles didn’t make the active roster, spending the year on their practice squad. Of the 41 6th round picks, only 4 didn’t make their active roster, two of those being signed to their practice squads. 7th round was only 11 players not making a roster.

2020 is no different, check it out yourself:

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...2020/draft.htm

OVERWHELMINGLY, drafted rookies made their respective rosters and if drafted in rounds 1-5, played on their respective rosters at some point in that year.

So, the idea that only <insert arbitrary percentage here> of draftees don’t make their roster is just complete nonsense. And the actual facts dictate otherwise.

In rounds 1-5, the vast majority of draft choices make their team AND contribute on the field, at some point that year, if nothing more other than depth and giving a breather to the starting 11’s. That depth is critical!

“Average”, “Good”, “Great” and “Legendary” are subjective statements, and mean absolutely nothing to the fundamental statistics. And the fundamental statistics clearly indicate that drafted players make their rosters, and play during that year.

And that is exactly why the draft is so critical to be a part of, addressing team weaknesses and getting them filled.
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Old 03-03-2021, 01:44 PM   #5
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by gosaints1 View Post
The draft is completely separated from the free agency and undrafted folks. What we’re talking about right now is the success of the actual NFL draft. Actually drafting folks with selections through rounds in the draft. Debating the question of how important it is to have draft picks, during the draft, not diluted by the sheer number of players evaluated as UDFA. And OVERWHELMINGLY, those players, that are selected via the draft, are on rosters. Let’s look at the 2019 draft:

254 players were selected in the draft, 213 of them played in a game that season. That’s 83.85%, if my division is good enough. In rounds 1-3, only 1 player didn’t play due to a non-injury designation. That player was Jacha Polite, selected by the Jets at 68 overall who was cut in preseason, but was immediately signed by the Rams and placed on their practice squad. In rounds 4-5, again only one player failed to make an active roster, Clayton Thorson, selected by the Eagles didn’t make the active roster, spending the year on their practice squad. Of the 41 6th round picks, only 4 didn’t make their active roster, two of those being signed to their practice squads. 7th round was only 11 players not making a roster.

2020 is no different, check it out yourself:

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...2020/draft.htm

OVERWHELMINGLY, drafted rookies made their respective rosters and if drafted in rounds 1-5, played on their respective rosters at some point in that year.

So, the idea that only <insert arbitrary percentage here> of draftees don’t make their roster is just complete nonsense. And the actual facts dictate otherwise.

In rounds 1-5, the vast majority of draft choices make their team AND contribute on the field, at some point that year, if nothing more other than depth and giving a breather to the starting 11’s. That depth is critical!

“Average”, “Good”, “Great” and “Legendary” are subjective statements, and mean absolutely nothing to the fundamental statistics. And the fundamental statistics clearly indicate that drafted players make their rosters, and play during that year.

And that is exactly why the draft is so critical to be a part of, addressing team weaknesses and getting them filled.
I agree with almost all of that. Addressing weaknesses via the draft is critical. It is more critical for teams with more holes to be filled. Teams with deeper rosters and fewer holes to fill in my opinion are better served to attempt to get higher draft capital rather than more lower round picks that are unlikely to make their final roster. Quality over quantity. The numbers given prove that higher round picks are far more likely to contribute and at a higher level. There are always exceptions in both directions. A few late rounders contribute greatly and some first rounders are total busts.

Another way to fill those holes is with proven commodities via free agency. Look at what Tampa Bay did. They supplemented starting lineups on both sides of the ball with key FA's and other veterans that earned them the Super Bowl. Is it sustainable? No. Probably not, but you yourself have argued the importance of winning it all over sustained "goodnees".

And if you look back you'll see that the 35% number that I mentioned was discovered to be in another context to which I readily admitted.
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Old 03-03-2021, 02:29 PM   #6
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
I agree with almost all of that. Addressing weaknesses via the draft is critical. It is more critical for teams with more holes to be filled. Teams with deeper rosters and fewer holes to fill in my opinion are better served to attempt to get higher draft capital rather than more lower round picks that are unlikely to make their final roster. Quality over quantity. The numbers given prove that higher round picks are far more likely to contribute and at a higher level. There are always exceptions in both directions. A few late rounders contribute greatly and some first rounders are total busts.

Another way to fill those holes is with proven commodities via free agency. Look at what Tampa Bay did. They supplemented starting lineups on both sides of the ball with key FA's and other veterans that earned them the Super Bowl. Is it sustainable? No. Probably not, but you yourself have argued the importance of winning it all over sustained "goodnees".

And if you look back you'll see that the 35% number that I mentioned was discovered to be in another context to which I readily admitted.
I don’t view that number in context though. It’s very simple, statistically, the overwhelmingly vast majority of drafted players make their rosters, and play.

And THAT is why the draft is so, so critical to a team’s future. And so necessary, unless you want to be in cap hell forever. Draft them..., develop them.

Regardless, I’ve been clear, and still believe, that winning it all IS the ultimate goal. Sacrificing multiple years of the future for one year winning it all presupposes that you’re going to win it all. Tampa was successful in that endeavor, other’s have failed, including us. To be clear, you know that I’m a believer in both Watson and also Wilson as being much better than DB#9 currently. Would I sacrifice three years worth of no high round draft choices, effectively, for either of them? Nope, and it’s why I believe we can’t afford either. Watson’s 2021 cap hit is smaller than Taysom Hill’s! And Wilson’s cap hit can easily be managed also. But the sheer volume of players and picks that would be required would be destructive, imho.

You don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.
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Old 03-03-2021, 03:18 PM   #7
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido View Post
...Another way to fill those holes is with proven commodities via free agency. Look at what Tampa Bay did. They supplemented starting lineups on both sides of the ball with key FA's and other veterans that earned them the Super Bowl...
It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019

Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting.
Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White.
Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft

Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards.
Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.
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Old 03-03-2021, 03:24 PM   #8
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by gosaints1 View Post
It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019

Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting.
Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White.
Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft

Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards.
Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.
By that logic, Harris getting hurt after 2 big returns and Cook fumbling in Bucs territory in the third quarter while up by 7 were significantly more important than Tampa’s D.
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Old 03-03-2021, 03:51 PM   #9
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by Boston Saint View Post
By that logic, Harris getting hurt after 2 big returns and Cook fumbling in Bucs territory in the third quarter while up by 7 were significantly more important than Tampa’s D.
Injuries will always be a factor. Tom Brady was playing hurt also, along with almost everyone else still alive in the playoffs. And yes, Cooks fumble was HUGE.

That being said, after the fumble, and subsequent TB touchdown, the score was 20-20, tie game. What were the results of our next three offensive possessions?

5 plays, 12 yards, Punt

5 plays, 13 yards, Int

4 plays, 10 yards, Int.

Giving the defense extremely short fields to defend, while not being able to move the ball offensively at all, is not a formula for winning football in the 4th quarter of a playoff game.

Just can’t do it.
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Old 03-03-2021, 03:56 PM   #10
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Re: Grading the 2018 Saints draft class, three years in | USA Today/SaintsWire

Originally Posted by gosaints1 View Post
It wasn’t just veterans. It’s my belief the largest plays in favor of the Bucs came from drafted players, actually one specific year’s draft. 2019

Drew Brees first interception was intercepted by Sean-Murphy Bunting.
Round 2, selection 39 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

Drew Brees second interception was intercepted by Devin White.
Round 1, selection 5 overall. 2019 NFL draft

Drew Brees third interception was intercepted by Mike Edwards.
Round 3, selection 99 overall. 2019 NFL draft.

A good argument could be made that the Bucs 2019 NFL draft changed the outcome of the game vs the Saints significantly more than Tom Brady, or any other free agent acquisitions did. Brady was largely contained. Those interceptions were the difference maker in a ten point game.
As another example let's look at a team we are both familiar with ... the New Orleans Saints. The 2009 team that went all the way was led by these starters ... Drew Brees, Jeremy Shockey, David Thomas, Jonathon Goodwin, Scott Fujita, Jonathon Vilma, Scott Shanle, Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, and Remi Ayodele none of whom were drafted by the Saints. And don't forget Heath Evans and Mike Bell, while not starters like the others they were still important contributors.
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