Voluntary Workouts

jeanpierre · 04-22-2021, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by iceshack149

An excellent trade for a whiny, injury prone receiver.

Maybe I'm memory-holing it, but don't remember Graham missing games because of injury as a Saint; maybe with the SheHawks, but he played injured with us...

Just checked ProFootball Reference, he only missed two games with the Saints, now there's some GS where he was limited, but he still played injured in those games...

ProFootball Reference | TE Jimmy Graham

iceshack149 · 04-22-2021, 11:02 AM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

Maybe I'm memory-holing it, but don't remember Graham missing games because of injury as a Saint; maybe with the SheHawks, but he played injured with us...

Just checked ProFootball Reference, he only missed two games with the Saints, now there's some GS where he was limited, but he still played injured in those games...

ProFootball Reference | TE Jimmy Graham

I was referring to Brandin Cooks.

jeanpierre · 04-22-2021, 11:14 AM

Originally Posted by iceshack149

I was referring to Brandin Cooks.

My bad; Cooks missed six (6) games his rookie year, but he played in 16 and 16 games his remaining seasons with the Saints...

He was great until he got frustrated with his decreased targets as we were no longer able to get the downfield air yards we did his rookie season...

ProFootball Reference | WR Brandin Cooks

AsylumGuido · 04-22-2021, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

And that's why most front office personnel are overpaid, overrated - years of nepotism in the NFL; it's the ole game of it's not what you know, but WHO you know...

First round picks should be starting when you break camp. Elite right away? No. I agree with you on that much...

But they should be starting their rookie year, with maybe the exception of quarterback who definitely has more responsibilities than any other position...

But coaches should play rookies as soon as possible to acclimate them to NFL game speed and gain experience from which they learn, improve...

I think you read that wrong. The numbers show that only 2/3rd's of players drafted in the first round even end up starting at least half the games IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER, not in their first year as a rookie. That means they are unable to beat out someone else on the roster at any point in their career. That's why I call it an inexact science. You base the decision on everything you have at hand. Even the very best of talent evaluators cannot predict what will happen in every case. Some players simply never meet their expectations for one reason or another.

jeanpierre · 04-22-2021, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

I think you read that wrong. The numbers show that only 2/3rd's of players drafted in the first round even end up starting at least half the games IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER, not in their first year as a rookie. That means they are unable to beat out someone else on the roster at any point in their career. That's why I call it an inexact science. You base the decision on everything you have at hand. Even the very best of talent evaluators cannot predict what will happen in every case. Some players simply never meet their expectations for one reason or another.

No I read it right, most of the league is getting it wrong - 1st round Rookies should be starting their first year, otherwise the team and the player have failed...

AsylumGuido · 04-22-2021, 04:25 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

No I read it right, most of the league is getting it wrong - 1st round Rookies should be starting their first year, otherwise the team and the player have failed...

No doubt many of those that end up not being a success do start their rookie year. But nobody knows for certain if they'll be successful in the long run. Who knows, they may have a career as a platoon player or a backup. But, you are correct, approximately one third of first round draft choices by that definition fail. If there is some secret formula to avoid that it has yet to be found. The very best talent evaluators select players that do not become a success. You seem to expect perfection in the drafting process. That is unobtainable as there are humans involved in every aspect of the process. Teams and players are destined to fail to a certain degree.

I have a sneaking suspicion that you have a record of all first rounders that you would have picked.

I'd be curious as to how many of those started at least 50% of all games since they have been in the league. You may beat the average success rate. Or not.

K Major · 04-22-2021, 04:33 PM

Originally Posted by jeanpierre

No I read it right, most of the league is getting it wrong - 1st round Rookies should be starting their first year, otherwise the team and the player have failed...

I agree.

Wirfs, Chase Young, Simmons, Kinlaw, DBrown etc were thrown into the fire early in 2020 … as 1st rounders, they should be.

Boston Saint · 04-22-2021, 04:41 PM

Saying a first round rookie should start his first year is different than the percentages Guido was referencing about career starting.

I would say it depends a bit on position and team demands on weather or not a rookie starts his first year and it should. QB for example. Chiefs didn’t fail with Mahomes and Packers didn’t fail with Rodgers and neither one started rookie season. Tampa could easily draft a development player this year that isn’t a starter for most games. Heck, look at Chris’s mock draft. If the falcons draft Chase this year he won’t be a starter over Julio or Ridley. A team might know they have a star at any position who is due a big payday in two seasons, but the have the chance to draft his replacement this year. That draftee won’t start.

AsylumGuido · 04-22-2021, 05:01 PM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Saying a first round rookie should start his first year is different than the percentages Guido was referencing about career starting.

I would say it depends a bit on position and team demands on weather or not a rookie starts his first year and it should. QB for example. Chiefs didn’t fail with Mahomes and Packers didn’t fail with Rodgers and neither one started rookie season. Tampa could easily draft a development player this year that isn’t a starter for most games. Heck, look at Chris’s mock draft. If the falcons draft Chase this year he won’t be a starter over Julio or Ridley. A team might know they have a star at any position who is due a big payday in two seasons, but the have the chance to draft his replacement this year. That draftee won’t start.

True, Boston. But I'm not only saying that. I agree with both Major and JP in that one would expect first rounders, other than QB's or others in some cases, to be a starter right away. What I am pointing out is that this is not always the case due to unforeseen circumstances (injury, legal, underperformance' better performance elsewhere). And I am also pointing out that they may not turn out to be starter material after being given the opportunity. It happens frequently. THAT is the reason behind it being an inexact science. Nobody can know with 100% certainty that any rookie will be a success. Nobody. Nada.

AsylumGuido · 04-22-2021, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by K Major

I agree.

Wirfs, Chase Young, Simmons, Kinlaw, DBrown etc were thrown into the fire early in 2020 … as 1st rounders, they should be.

I agree. They should be thrown in there and they usually are. But historically one in three do not succeed as a starter once given the chance. It happens not because the persons making the pick are incompetent, or because the coaching is incompetent. Its happens because nobody can predict with complete certainty how a 20 year old kid is going to adjust in a game of grown assed men regardless of how much talent or physical ability that kid might have.

04-22-2021, 10:19 AM	#41
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by iceshack149 An excellent trade for a whiny, injury prone receiver. Maybe I'm memory-holing it, but don't remember Graham missing games because of injury as a Saint; maybe with the SheHawks, but he played injured with us... Just checked ProFootball Reference, he only missed two games with the Saints, now there's some GS where he was limited, but he still played injured in those games... ProFootball Reference \| TE Jimmy Graham

04-22-2021, 11:02 AM	#42
iceshack149 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Fairbanks, AK Posts: 4,095 Blog Entries: 1	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by jeanpierre Maybe I'm memory-holing it, but don't remember Graham missing games because of injury as a Saint; maybe with the SheHawks, but he played injured with us... Just checked ProFootball Reference, he only missed two games with the Saints, now there's some GS where he was limited, but he still played injured in those games... ProFootball Reference \| TE Jimmy Graham I was referring to Brandin Cooks. Rugby Saint II and K Major like this.

04-22-2021, 11:14 AM	#43
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by iceshack149 I was referring to Brandin Cooks. My bad; Cooks missed six (6) games his rookie year, but he played in 16 and 16 games his remaining seasons with the Saints... He was great until he got frustrated with his decreased targets as we were no longer able to get the downfield air yards we did his rookie season... ProFootball Reference \| WR Brandin Cooks iceshack149, jnormand, Rugby Saint II and 1 others like this.

04-22-2021, 01:07 PM	#44
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by jeanpierre And that's why most front office personnel are overpaid, overrated - years of nepotism in the NFL; it's the ole game of it's not what you know, but WHO you know... First round picks should be starting when you break camp. Elite right away? No. I agree with you on that much... But they should be starting their rookie year, with maybe the exception of quarterback who definitely has more responsibilities than any other position... But coaches should play rookies as soon as possible to acclimate them to NFL game speed and gain experience from which they learn, improve... I think you read that wrong. The numbers show that only 2/3rd's of players drafted in the first round even end up starting at least half the games IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER, not in their first year as a rookie. That means they are unable to beat out someone else on the roster at any point in their career. That's why I call it an inexact science. You base the decision on everything you have at hand. Even the very best of talent evaluators cannot predict what will happen in every case. Some players simply never meet their expectations for one reason or another.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

04-22-2021, 04:04 PM	#45
jeanpierre Site Donor 2018 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Thibodaux Posts: 43,543 Blog Entries: 39	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by AsylumGuido I think you read that wrong. The numbers show that only 2/3rd's of players drafted in the first round even end up starting at least half the games IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER, not in their first year as a rookie. That means they are unable to beat out someone else on the roster at any point in their career. That's why I call it an inexact science. You base the decision on everything you have at hand. Even the very best of talent evaluators cannot predict what will happen in every case. Some players simply never meet their expectations for one reason or another. No I read it right, most of the league is getting it wrong - 1st round Rookies should be starting their first year, otherwise the team and the player have failed... K Major likes this.

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04-22-2021, 04:25 PM	#46
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by jeanpierre No I read it right, most of the league is getting it wrong - 1st round Rookies should be starting their first year, otherwise the team and the player have failed... No doubt many of those that end up not being a success do start their rookie year. But nobody knows for certain if they'll be successful in the long run. Who knows, they may have a career as a platoon player or a backup. But, you are correct, approximately one third of first round draft choices by that definition fail. If there is some secret formula to avoid that it has yet to be found. The very best talent evaluators select players that do not become a success. You seem to expect perfection in the drafting process. That is unobtainable as there are humans involved in every aspect of the process. Teams and players are destined to fail to a certain degree. I have a sneaking suspicion that you have a record of all first rounders that you would have picked. I'd be curious as to how many of those started at least 50% of all games since they have been in the league. You may beat the average success rate. Or not.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

04-22-2021, 04:33 PM	#47
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,063 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by jeanpierre No I read it right, most of the league is getting it wrong - 1st round Rookies should be starting their first year, otherwise the team and the player have failed... I agree. Wirfs, Chase Young, Simmons, Kinlaw, DBrown etc were thrown into the fire early in 2020 … as 1st rounders, they should be. AsylumGuido and jeanpierre like this.

04-22-2021, 04:41 PM	#48
Boston Saint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 4,877	Re: Voluntary Workouts Saying a first round rookie should start his first year is different than the percentages Guido was referencing about career starting. I would say it depends a bit on position and team demands on weather or not a rookie starts his first year and it should. QB for example. Chiefs didn’t fail with Mahomes and Packers didn’t fail with Rodgers and neither one started rookie season. Tampa could easily draft a development player this year that isn’t a starter for most games. Heck, look at Chris’s mock draft. If the falcons draft Chase this year he won’t be a starter over Julio or Ridley. A team might know they have a star at any position who is due a big payday in two seasons, but the have the chance to draft his replacement this year. That draftee won’t start. AsylumGuido likes this.
	You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

04-22-2021, 05:01 PM	#49
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by Boston Saint Saying a first round rookie should start his first year is different than the percentages Guido was referencing about career starting. I would say it depends a bit on position and team demands on weather or not a rookie starts his first year and it should. QB for example. Chiefs didn’t fail with Mahomes and Packers didn’t fail with Rodgers and neither one started rookie season. Tampa could easily draft a development player this year that isn’t a starter for most games. Heck, look at Chris’s mock draft. If the falcons draft Chase this year he won’t be a starter over Julio or Ridley. A team might know they have a star at any position who is due a big payday in two seasons, but the have the chance to draft his replacement this year. That draftee won’t start. True, Boston. But I'm not only saying that. I agree with both Major and JP in that one would expect first rounders, other than QB's or others in some cases, to be a starter right away. What I am pointing out is that this is not always the case due to unforeseen circumstances (injury, legal, underperformance' better performance elsewhere). And I am also pointing out that they may not turn out to be starter material after being given the opportunity. It happens frequently. THAT is the reason behind it being an inexact science. Nobody can know with 100% certainty that any rookie will be a success. Nobody. Nada. Boston Saint likes this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

04-22-2021, 05:11 PM	#50
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 24,395	Re: Voluntary Workouts Originally Posted by K Major I agree. Wirfs, Chase Young, Simmons, Kinlaw, DBrown etc were thrown into the fire early in 2020 … as 1st rounders, they should be. I agree. They should be thrown in there and they usually are. But historically one in three do not succeed as a starter once given the chance. It happens not because the persons making the pick are incompetent, or because the coaching is incompetent. Its happens because nobody can predict with complete certainty how a 20 year old kid is going to adjust in a game of grown assed men regardless of how much talent or physical ability that kid might have.