TRADE OUT OF ROUND 1

Danno · 02-24-2014, 08:24 PM

Originally Posted by saintfan

As many "late rounders" and street free agents and walk on's that we hear about, I'd almost be for it.

As I've said or at least I'm saying now, they can evaluate all day (and night). It's not a complete waste of time. Still, at the end of the day, there have only been a very few "sure things" in the NFL draft that ever proved themselves as such. Far more crashed and burned.

They're measuring the wrong things. They should all have to pass an evaluation by Dr Phil before they're allowed to declare themselves eligible.

Well its a fact that 1st rounders have a higher percentage of success than 2nd rounders, and 2nd rounders have a higher percentage of success than 3rd rounders, and 3rd rounders have a higher percentage of success than 4th rounders, and so on.

But, has anyone run the stats on 20 or so arbitrary 7th rounders having more success than a 1st,2nd,3rd,4th,5th, and 6th rounder combined?

That might be an interesting comparison, twenty 7th rounder picks versus a traditional 1st thru 6th round draft.

But as I've pointed out quite successfully on numerous occasions, the draft is in no way shape or form a crap shoot.

saintfan · 02-24-2014, 08:28 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

Well its a fact that 1st rounders have a higher percentage of success than 2nd rounders, and 2nd rounders have a higher percentage of success than 3rd rounders, and 3rd rounders have a higher percentage of success than 4th rounders, and so on.

But, has anyone run the stats on 20 or so arbitrary 7th rounders having more success than a 1st,2nd,3rd,4th,5th, and 6th rounder combined?

That might be an interesting comparison, twenty 7th rounder picks versus a traditional 1st thru 6th round draft.

But as I've pointed out quite successfully on numerous occasions, the draft is in no way shape or form a crap shoot.

Oh it's a crap shoot alright, perhaps an educated one, but a crap shoot nonetheless. Just take the first round. ANY first round in history. If it were anything that resembled an exact science 1st round busts would be rare.

But they "bust" out every year. Year after year. I don't discount what you're saying. I get it. But in the end, there is no measurable that guarantees a player will be successful. There won't be one in our lifetime.

Danno · 02-24-2014, 08:38 PM

Originally Posted by saintfan

Oh it's a crap shoot alright, perhaps an educated one, but a crap shoot nonetheless. Just take the first round. ANY first round in history. If it were anything that resembled an exact science 1st round busts would be rare.

But they "bust" out every year. Year after year. I don't discount what you're saying. I get it. But in the end, there is no measurable that guarantees a player will be successful. There won't be one in our lifetime.

A crap shoot implies that every selection from the 1st to the last has the exact same rate of success.

That just isn't so.

The odds favor 1st rounder over 2nd rounder, and 2nd over 3rd etc...

Therefore it is not a crap shoot.

You give me all 32 1st rounders and I'll give you all 32 7th rounders over the last 10 years. Who do you think will have the better team?

saintfan · 02-24-2014, 08:45 PM

Originally Posted by Danno

A crap shoot implies that every selection from the 1st to the last has the exact same rate of success.

That just isn't so.

The odds favor 1st rounder over 2nd rounder, and 2nd over 3rd etc...

Therefore it is not a crap shoot.

You give me all 32 1st rounders and I'll give you all 32 7th rounders over the last 10 years. Who do you think will have the better team?

I think you're missing the spirit of what I'm implying. Maybe if I said it's a "gamble" we'd be on the same page? Would you agree with that? That it's a gamble? Maybe more like Black Jack than dice?

Either way the spirit of what I'm saying is that there's no way to know. Those that go in the first round go that high because of the things they measure and play on the field in a game that overwhelms most of them for a while.

What makes a player special is not the round he was drafted in. What makes a player special is heart. There's no way to measure heart. All the 40 yard dash times and wonderlic scores - in the end they don't prove a damn thing really...because if they did, all these people who get paid tons of money to filter out the bad ones would be out of a job.

02-24-2014, 08:24 PM	#1
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,757	Re: TRADE OUT OF ROUND 1 Originally Posted by saintfan As many "late rounders" and street free agents and walk on's that we hear about, I'd almost be for it. As I've said or at least I'm saying now, they can evaluate all day (and night). It's not a complete waste of time. Still, at the end of the day, there have only been a very few "sure things" in the NFL draft that ever proved themselves as such. Far more crashed and burned. They're measuring the wrong things. They should all have to pass an evaluation by Dr Phil before they're allowed to declare themselves eligible. Well its a fact that 1st rounders have a higher percentage of success than 2nd rounders, and 2nd rounders have a higher percentage of success than 3rd rounders, and 3rd rounders have a higher percentage of success than 4th rounders, and so on. But, has anyone run the stats on 20 or so arbitrary 7th rounders having more success than a 1st,2nd,3rd,4th,5th, and 6th rounder combined? That might be an interesting comparison, twenty 7th rounder picks versus a traditional 1st thru 6th round draft. But as I've pointed out quite successfully on numerous occasions, the draft is in no way shape or form a crap shoot.

02-24-2014, 08:28 PM	#2
saintfan Donated Plasma Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: San Francisco, CA Posts: 18,556 Blog Entries: 5	Re: TRADE OUT OF ROUND 1 Originally Posted by Danno Well its a fact that 1st rounders have a higher percentage of success than 2nd rounders, and 2nd rounders have a higher percentage of success than 3rd rounders, and 3rd rounders have a higher percentage of success than 4th rounders, and so on. But, has anyone run the stats on 20 or so arbitrary 7th rounders having more success than a 1st,2nd,3rd,4th,5th, and 6th rounder combined? That might be an interesting comparison, twenty 7th rounder picks versus a traditional 1st thru 6th round draft. But as I've pointed out quite successfully on numerous occasions, the draft is in no way shape or form a crap shoot. Oh it's a crap shoot alright, perhaps an educated one, but a crap shoot nonetheless. Just take the first round. ANY first round in history. If it were anything that resembled an exact science 1st round busts would be rare. But they "bust" out every year. Year after year. I don't discount what you're saying. I get it. But in the end, there is no measurable that guarantees a player will be successful. There won't be one in our lifetime.

02-24-2014, 08:38 PM	#3
Danno Truth Addict Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Spanish Fort, AL (via NO and B/R) Posts: 24,757	Re: TRADE OUT OF ROUND 1 Originally Posted by saintfan Oh it's a crap shoot alright, perhaps an educated one, but a crap shoot nonetheless. Just take the first round. ANY first round in history. If it were anything that resembled an exact science 1st round busts would be rare. But they "bust" out every year. Year after year. I don't discount what you're saying. I get it. But in the end, there is no measurable that guarantees a player will be successful. There won't be one in our lifetime. A crap shoot implies that every selection from the 1st to the last has the exact same rate of success. That just isn't so. The odds favor 1st rounder over 2nd rounder, and 2nd over 3rd etc... Therefore it is not a crap shoot. You give me all 32 1st rounders and I'll give you all 32 7th rounders over the last 10 years. Who do you think will have the better team?

02-24-2014, 08:45 PM	#4
saintfan Donated Plasma Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: San Francisco, CA Posts: 18,556 Blog Entries: 5	Re: TRADE OUT OF ROUND 1 Originally Posted by Danno A crap shoot implies that every selection from the 1st to the last has the exact same rate of success. That just isn't so. The odds favor 1st rounder over 2nd rounder, and 2nd over 3rd etc... Therefore it is not a crap shoot. You give me all 32 1st rounders and I'll give you all 32 7th rounders over the last 10 years. Who do you think will have the better team? I think you're missing the spirit of what I'm implying. Maybe if I said it's a "gamble" we'd be on the same page? Would you agree with that? That it's a gamble? Maybe more like Black Jack than dice? Either way the spirit of what I'm saying is that there's no way to know. Those that go in the first round go that high because of the things they measure and play on the field in a game that overwhelms most of them for a while. What makes a player special is not the round he was drafted in. What makes a player special is heart. There's no way to measure heart. All the 40 yard dash times and wonderlic scores - in the end they don't prove a damn thing really...because if they did, all these people who get paid tons of money to filter out the bad ones would be out of a job.
	C'mon Man...

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