Do you see a 2020 season happening?

blackangold · 04-07-2020, 08:19 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

Also the CEBM is based on the Oxford model, which assumes that a large chunk of the population has already been infected and that R0 is incredibly hight. They are probably greatly underestimating the IFR. Several other papers put it closer to 1%. Cruise ship studies disagree with this. Also, there have been a couple of towns in Italy that have been perfect testing scenarios. They all point to somewhere between .7 and 1.3 IFR.

There aren’t several that point to IFR at all, there are only a few institutions capable of working on it right now because it’s so new and data is so limited. Being that it’s limited as the study pointed out it’s more likely to be overestimated like the swine flu was.

I know a few posts above you said you don’t care what it really is, that’s fine, but I am just tired of seeing people fear monger. I am not saying that is your intention but for many it is and the fear caused by shutting the global economy down will cause more death than the actual virus.

What I know for certain, the next week and a half is going to be ugly...

04-07-2020, 08:19 PM	#10
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta Also the CEBM is based on the Oxford model, which assumes that a large chunk of the population has already been infected and that R0 is incredibly hight. They are probably greatly underestimating the IFR. Several other papers put it closer to 1%. Cruise ship studies disagree with this. Also, there have been a couple of towns in Italy that have been perfect testing scenarios. They all point to somewhere between .7 and 1.3 IFR. There aren’t several that point to IFR at all, there are only a few institutions capable of working on it right now because it’s so new and data is so limited. Being that it’s limited as the study pointed out it’s more likely to be overestimated like the swine flu was. I know a few posts above you said you don’t care what it really is, that’s fine, but I am just tired of seeing people fear monger. I am not saying that is your intention but for many it is and the fear caused by shutting the global economy down will cause more death than the actual virus. What I know for certain, the next week and a half is going to be ugly...
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