Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-06-2020, 08:33 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Where are you getting your numbers from?

Oxford/Imperial College models and Michael Osterholm. The models the US are using are assuming China like lockdown scenario and that we won't have a resurgence of cases. Lets do some ballpark math....25% percent of the population gets infected at 1% death rate...about 800k. 50% would be 1.6 million dying..it could be even more than that. The Oxford/Imperial college model puts it between 1-2 million. The idea that we can just lockdown and stop it is ridiculous, especially with asymptomatic carriers being the primary drivers. That's what the US models assume.

04-06-2020, 08:33 PM	#11
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Where are you getting your numbers from? Oxford/Imperial College models and Michael Osterholm. The models the US are using are assuming China like lockdown scenario and that we won't have a resurgence of cases. Lets do some ballpark math....25% percent of the population gets infected at 1% death rate...about 800k. 50% would be 1.6 million dying..it could be even more than that. The Oxford/Imperial college model puts it between 1-2 million. The idea that we can just lockdown and stop it is ridiculous, especially with asymptomatic carriers being the primary drivers. That's what the US models assume.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342