Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-07-2020, 01:35 AM

Originally Posted by blackangold

No, your not using the Oxford model because that is estimating IFR to be 5-6x of the common flu. Your also ignoring the fact that 90% of fatalities have at least 1 per-existing condition. Take this into consideration and factor in that mitigation is occurring, then understand that the US model WAS showing 140-220k deaths mid March which has already been reduced to 80k as of yesterday.

Go ahead and provide a link to the model. I linked the projections and actual Oxford model of IFR on page 2 of this thread.

Edit:
Here is an excerpt if you don’t want to look at the research article.

“ We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.*”

The Oxford Model has a major flaw in assuming that a large portion of the population has already gotten the virus...a fact I don't believe to be true and artificially lowers its death rate. What the Oxford Model does do is to underscore the ability of the virus to spread, which has been greatly underestimated. As a result it greatly underestimates the death rate. There have been studies in semi-perfect isolated conditions that show that show the death rate to be somewhere between .7 and 1.3%. The imperial college model is better for the overall deaths. The Oxford model shows that these cases are unavoidable. The Imperial College has the deaths between 1 and 2 million. Models suck overall anyways, and both models are flawed. They can really only be created by computer algorithms or the more basic stepwise approach which combines several components into both a linear and exponential factor. The two approaches are actually quite similarly flawed. They don't "model" the real world effectively. Go watch some Osterholm videos, he's been studying this **** out of the womb. If you use basic math and know that the death rate is 1% ,25% of the population getting infected would be 800k deaths. This virus isn't going to leave. Even if we suppress it, it will just come back.

04-07-2020, 01:35 AM	#11
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold No, your not using the Oxford model because that is estimating IFR to be 5-6x of the common flu. Your also ignoring the fact that 90% of fatalities have at least 1 per-existing condition. Take this into consideration and factor in that mitigation is occurring, then understand that the US model WAS showing 140-220k deaths mid March which has already been reduced to 80k as of yesterday. Go ahead and provide a link to the model. I linked the projections and actual Oxford model of IFR on page 2 of this thread. Edit: Here is an excerpt if you don’t want to look at the research article. “ We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%. Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.” The Oxford Model has a major flaw in assuming that a large portion of the population has already gotten the virus...a fact I don't believe to be true and artificially lowers its death rate. What the Oxford Model does do is to underscore the ability of the virus to spread, which has been greatly underestimated. As a result it greatly underestimates the death rate. There have been studies in semi-perfect isolated conditions that show that show the death rate to be somewhere between .7 and 1.3%. The imperial college model is better for the overall deaths. The Oxford model shows that these cases are unavoidable. The Imperial College has the deaths between 1 and 2 million. Models suck overall anyways, and both models are flawed. They can really only be created by computer algorithms or the more basic stepwise approach which combines several components into both a linear and exponential factor. The two approaches are actually quite similarly flawed. They don't "model" the real world effectively. Go watch some Osterholm videos, he's been studying this *** out of the womb. If you use basic math and know that the death rate is 1% ,25% of the population getting infected would be 800k deaths. This virus isn't going to leave. Even if we suppress it, it will just come back.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,340