2022 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints

AsylumGuido · 01-13-2021, 08:31 AM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Even with Drew's post June 1st retirement, we are still in trouble with the cap. TV revenue declined in a big way and obviously stadium revenue is gone...

Honestly not sure how Loomis will do it and field a competitive team next year. After this year its rebuilding for at least 2-3 years.

Edit:
I went to OTC and played with the 2021 cap... turns out we only need to cut $95m off of the cap. No big deal, I just post June 1st cut the top 10 players and we are good to go.

TV revenues didn't decline. Where did you get that idea? Stadium revenue, yes. Ad rates were up again this season and all network spots were pretty much sold out for the season before it barely got underway.

Broadcast contracts are set to be renewed this off-season and they are expecting record numbers again with all the networks jockeying to get a piece of the cash cow. That will have a direct impact on the 2021 cap number. Not enough to offset the losses at the gate, but enough to soften the blow a bit.

TheOak · 01-13-2021, 08:45 AM

He got the idea by reading which i understand is counterintuitive to just knowing every ****1ng thing.

A 6% decline in viewership ratings will result in a decline in per minute advertisement rates which will equal a Television revenue decline. Any dip in ratings gives the networks leverage in negotiations.

6%
https://apnews.com/article/election-...2b6ecdab29329e

a month later it rose
7%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...a90_story.html

Even the league recognized the pending dip which it why they are expanding to 17 regular season games. .

WW_Who_Dat · 01-13-2021, 08:49 AM

Add theres lot folks talking 17 game season they will need to make allowances for either a enlarged squad on team day and more more to pay players for addition games. 21 games potion tail to get to Super Bowl that a long down to go.

AsylumGuido · 01-13-2021, 09:41 AM

Originally Posted by TheOak

He got the idea by reading which i understand is counterintuitive to just knowing every ****1ng thing.

A 6% decline in viewership ratings will result in a decline in per minute advertisement rates which will equal a Television revenue decline. Any dip in ratings gives the networks leverage in negotiations.

6%
https://apnews.com/article/election-...2b6ecdab29329e

a month later it rose
7%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...a90_story.html

Even the league recognized the pending dip which it why they are expanding to 17 regular season games. .

A decline in overall ratings does not correlate to a decrease in per minute rates. Those rates are based upon relative ratings, in other words percentage of viewership as compared to programming in the same window. While overall ratings have dropped annually over the last decade or so, the price demanded for advertising time has increased every year. The spots available for the 2020 season back in August were almost 10% higher than in 2019. They all sold out immediately and that translates into increased TV revenue. The annual decreases in network ratings can be traced to the increases in NFL viewing over streaming sources which are not included in those ratings, but the national commercial spots are still being seen by those viewers. Once again, as I pointed out, network ratings have dropped each of the last several years and TV revenues have increased each of the past several years. Why would that suddenly change in 2020? It hasn't.

Total advertising revenues for the year should be available a few weeks after the final game is over. How much will the revenue have increased over 2019? No telling, but based upon what I read back in August, the presales at the increased rates would ensure increased revenues in that area, but the league knew it would still take the major hit at the gates.

Also, see this from last week in the Wall Street Journal.

By Joe Flint
Jan. 8, 2021 9:00 am ET

The National Football League will allow CBS , NBC and Fox to sell an additional two minutes of commercials during the playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl, according to network and league officials.

That will mean several million dollars of new revenue for the networks, as NFL postseason games are among the most sought-after content for advertisers. A spot usually runs as high as $1 million during the early playoff rounds and can top $2 million for the conference championships that determine who plays in the Super Bowl, network executives said.

The extra ad inventory will be for all the playoff games starting this weekend but doesn’t include the Super Bowl, which will air on ViacomCBS Inc.’s CBS on Feb. 7. CBS is seeking as much as $5.5 million per commercial for the Super Bowl, people with knowledge of the matter have said.

The league agreed to the additional ad inventory after requests from the broadcast networks, which had already sold the bulk of commercial time for the playoffs and wanted to capitalize on strong demand from advertisers.

“The marketplace has been very good,” said John Bogusz, executive vice president of sports sales for CBS. Mr. Bogusz said the network is close to sold out for the playoffs and has a few spots remaining for the Super Bowl.

_____________________________________________

Apparently I spend a lot more time reading than some around here.

AsylumGuido · 01-13-2021, 12:17 PM

There was a bit of a panic by some advertisers due to the loss of the Steelers/Ravens Thanksgiving broadcast due to the COVID-19 issues. They were given some reduced slots as reparations and/or "cash back". That's understandable as it is one of the most watched regular season broadcasts of the year. But things soon got back on track and as the Wall Street Journal that I referenced earlier points out, advertisers are begging for more commercial slots to buy at top dollar pricing.

AsylumGuido · 01-13-2021, 01:05 PM

One more major misconception is that the NFL makes money from TV advertising. This is completely false. The NFL's TV revenue comes from the contracts with the individual networks, not from the ads purchased. Advertising dollars are paid to the networks, not the NFL. The NFL's TV revenues are set as soon as the network contracts are signed. The networks bid for the rights to carry the NFL so that they can generate their revenue from the advertising.

Any reduction in ad revenues could affect the next deal between the NFL and the networks, which could affect future NFL TV revenues, but it would have zero effect on this current year's revenue. But, considering the NFL remains the #1 money maker for the networks there is little to no chance the upcoming set of deals will be any lower than the ones currently in place.

Rugby Saint II · 01-13-2021, 01:05 PM

Without a doubt there are some hard cuts coming.

blackangold · 01-13-2021, 01:22 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

TV revenues didn't decline. Where did you get that idea? Stadium revenue, yes. Ad rates were up again this season and all network spots were pretty much sold out for the season before it barely got underway.

Broadcast contracts are set to be renewed this off-season and they are expecting record numbers again with all the networks jockeying to get a piece of the cash cow. That will have a direct impact on the 2021 cap number. Not enough to offset the losses at the gate, but enough to soften the blow a bit.

This stuff isn't hard to find...

"That means for the 2020 regular season, NFL games averaged 15.1 million viewers, down 8% from 16.4 million for the 2019 regular season. This season’s decline comes after two consecutive years of 5% increases."
https://frontofficesports.com/nfl-vi...egular-season/

"Despite having two extra games during the wildcard round the playoffs this season, interest was not there from football fans around the United States. According to Sportico, ratings for the games were down 25% on Saturday compared to last year and 20% on Sunday. That’s a major downtick in ratings for the NFL."
https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-tv-rating...rship-numbers/

"Disappointing NFL ratings are forcing television networks to restructure deals with advertisers to make up for the smaller audience, according to a Wall Street Journal report."
https://deadline.com/2020/12/nfl-rat...rt-1234655747/

Most TV deals expire in 2022 and there will likely be a bidding war for contracts that benifit the NFL, but there is an assumption that the decline was due to Covid and the ratings will come back to the 5% annual growth observed most years. However, I would argue most viewers won't come back because of what the NFL (like other companies) has done to devalue their brand (wokeness).

AsylumGuido · 01-13-2021, 01:37 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

This stuff isn't hard to find...

"That means for the 2020 regular season, NFL games averaged 15.1 million viewers, down 8% from 16.4 million for the 2019 regular season. This season’s decline comes after two consecutive years of 5% increases."
https://frontofficesports.com/nfl-vi...egular-season/

"Despite having two extra games during the wildcard round the playoffs this season, interest was not there from football fans around the United States. According to Sportico, ratings for the games were down 25% on Saturday compared to last year and 20% on Sunday. That’s a major downtick in ratings for the NFL."
https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-tv-rating...rship-numbers/

"Disappointing NFL ratings are forcing television networks to restructure deals with advertisers to make up for the smaller audience, according to a Wall Street Journal report."
https://deadline.com/2020/12/nfl-rat...rt-1234655747/

Most TV deals expire in 2022 and there will likely be a bidding war for contracts that benifit the NFL, but there is an assumption that the decline was due to Covid and the ratings will come back to the 5% annual growth observed most years. However, I would argue most viewers won't come back because of what the NFL (like other companies) has done to devalue their brand (wokeness).

Yes, ratings are down. But you stated that TV revenues were down ("TV revenue declined in a big way"). That simply not correct. TV revenues are contractual. They are set. But the fact remains that the NFL is still the most watched programming on broadcast television and the next round of deals will be higher than ever.

The audience for the NFL isn't the same as it was ten years ago. It is far more global. It is more streaming based than ever. That portion of the population than appear to be butthurt by "wokeness" is a tiny minority. The rest of the audience is growing far faster than the few thinking they are some sort of rebel. Advertisers don't give a sh!t about your demographic anymore. Note the growing makeup of commercials featuring mixed marriages and gay relationships. You are a minority now. Face it.

blackangold · 01-13-2021, 10:55 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Yes, ratings are down. But you stated that TV revenues were down ("TV revenue declined in a big way"). That simply not correct. TV revenues are contractual. They are set. But the fact remains that the NFL is still the most watched programming on broadcast television and the next round of deals will be higher than ever.

The audience for the NFL isn't the same as it was ten years ago. It is far more global. It is more streaming based than ever. That portion of the population than appear to be butthurt by "wokeness" is a tiny minority. The rest of the audience is growing far faster than the few thinking they are some sort of rebel. Advertisers don't give a sh!t about your demographic anymore. Note the growing makeup of commercials featuring mixed marriages and gay relationships. You are a minority now. Face it.

Lol
You’re assuming a lot there. To start, you’re assuming that advertising and programming today is centered to drive revenue or sell products. There is more propaganda in programming today than anything else. Considering the media across the country is controlled by less than 3% of the population.... but I digress.

As for being a minority, yes I am indeed that. I have, and my people have been a minority for hundreds if not thousands of years.

We are getting off topic a bit—

Streaming is all ad captured, the legal stream services at least. You’re right it’s contracted and I stated that, but I also read that some media companies are able to recoup lost revenue they had amounted to 2.3 billion for the year.

01-13-2021, 08:31 AM	#31
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by blackangold Even with Drew's post June 1st retirement, we are still in trouble with the cap. TV revenue declined in a big way and obviously stadium revenue is gone... Honestly not sure how Loomis will do it and field a competitive team next year. After this year its rebuilding for at least 2-3 years. Edit: I went to OTC and played with the 2021 cap... turns out we only need to cut $95m off of the cap. No big deal, I just post June 1st cut the top 10 players and we are good to go. TV revenues didn't decline. Where did you get that idea? Stadium revenue, yes. Ad rates were up again this season and all network spots were pretty much sold out for the season before it barely got underway. Broadcast contracts are set to be renewed this off-season and they are expecting record numbers again with all the networks jockeying to get a piece of the cash cow. That will have a direct impact on the 2021 cap number. Not enough to offset the losses at the gate, but enough to soften the blow a bit.

01-13-2021, 08:45 AM	#32
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,027	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints He got the idea by reading which i understand is counterintuitive to just knowing every ****1ng thing. A 6% decline in viewership ratings will result in a decline in per minute advertisement rates which will equal a Television revenue decline. Any dip in ratings gives the networks leverage in negotiations. 6% https://apnews.com/article/election-...2b6ecdab29329e a month later it rose 7% https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...a90_story.html Even the league recognized the pending dip which it why they are expanding to 17 regular season games. .
	It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau

01-13-2021, 08:49 AM	#33
WW_Who_Dat 1000 Posts + Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Lafayette, La and Valencia CA Posts: 1,270 Blog Entries: 1	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints Add theres lot folks talking 17 game season they will need to make allowances for either a enlarged squad on team day and more more to pay players for addition games. 21 games potion tail to get to Super Bowl that a long down to go.

01-13-2021, 09:41 AM	#34
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by TheOak He got the idea by reading which i understand is counterintuitive to just knowing every **1ng thing. A 6% decline in viewership ratings will result in a decline in per minute advertisement rates which will equal a Television revenue decline. Any dip in ratings gives the networks leverage in negotiations. 6% https://apnews.com/article/election-...2b6ecdab29329e a month later it rose 7% https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...a90_story.html Even the league recognized the pending dip which it why they are expanding to 17 regular season games. . A decline in overall ratings does not correlate to a decrease in per minute rates. Those rates are based upon relative ratings, in other words percentage of viewership as compared to programming in the same window. While overall ratings have dropped annually over the last decade or so, the price demanded for advertising time has increased every year. The spots available for the 2020 season back in August were almost 10% higher than in 2019. They all sold out immediately and that translates into increased TV revenue. The annual decreases in network ratings can be traced to the increases in NFL viewing over streaming sources which are not included in those ratings, but the national commercial spots are still being seen by those viewers. Once again, as I pointed out, network ratings have dropped each of the last several years and TV revenues have increased each of the past several years. Why would that suddenly change in 2020? It hasn't. Total advertising revenues for the year should be available a few weeks after the final game is over. How much will the revenue have increased over 2019? No telling, but based upon what I read** back in August, the presales at the increased rates would ensure increased revenues in that area, but the league knew it would still take the major hit at the gates. Also, see this from last week in the Wall Street Journal. By Joe Flint Jan. 8, 2021 9:00 am ET The National Football League will allow CBS , NBC and Fox to sell an additional two minutes of commercials during the playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl, according to network and league officials. That will mean several million dollars of new revenue for the networks, as NFL postseason games are among the most sought-after content for advertisers. A spot usually runs as high as $1 million during the early playoff rounds and can top $2 million for the conference championships that determine who plays in the Super Bowl, network executives said. The extra ad inventory will be for all the playoff games starting this weekend but doesn’t include the Super Bowl, which will air on ViacomCBS Inc.’s CBS on Feb. 7. CBS is seeking as much as $5.5 million per commercial for the Super Bowl, people with knowledge of the matter have said. The league agreed to the additional ad inventory after requests from the broadcast networks, which had already sold the bulk of commercial time for the playoffs and wanted to capitalize on strong demand from advertisers. “The marketplace has been very good,” said John Bogusz, executive vice president of sports sales for CBS. Mr. Bogusz said the network is close to sold out for the playoffs and has a few spots remaining for the Super Bowl. _____________________________________________ Apparently I spend a lot more time reading than some around here.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

01-13-2021, 12:17 PM	#35
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints There was a bit of a panic by some advertisers due to the loss of the Steelers/Ravens Thanksgiving broadcast due to the COVID-19 issues. They were given some reduced slots as reparations and/or "cash back". That's understandable as it is one of the most watched regular season broadcasts of the year. But things soon got back on track and as the Wall Street Journal that I referenced earlier points out, advertisers are begging for more commercial slots to buy at top dollar pricing.

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01-13-2021, 01:05 PM	#36
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints One more major misconception is that the NFL makes money from TV advertising. This is completely false. The NFL's TV revenue comes from the contracts with the individual networks, not from the ads purchased. Advertising dollars are paid to the networks, not the NFL. The NFL's TV revenues are set as soon as the network contracts are signed. The networks bid for the rights to carry the NFL so that they can generate their revenue from the advertising. Any reduction in ad revenues could affect the next deal between the NFL and the networks, which could affect future NFL TV revenues, but it would have zero effect on this current year's revenue. But, considering the NFL remains the #1 money maker for the networks there is little to no chance the upcoming set of deals will be any lower than the ones currently in place.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

01-13-2021, 01:05 PM	#37
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,073	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints Without a doubt there are some hard cuts coming. Thirty3 likes this.

01-13-2021, 01:22 PM	#38
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by AsylumGuido TV revenues didn't decline. Where did you get that idea? Stadium revenue, yes. Ad rates were up again this season and all network spots were pretty much sold out for the season before it barely got underway. Broadcast contracts are set to be renewed this off-season and they are expecting record numbers again with all the networks jockeying to get a piece of the cash cow. That will have a direct impact on the 2021 cap number. Not enough to offset the losses at the gate, but enough to soften the blow a bit. This stuff isn't hard to find... "That means for the 2020 regular season, NFL games averaged 15.1 million viewers, down 8% from 16.4 million for the 2019 regular season. This season’s decline comes after two consecutive years of 5% increases." https://frontofficesports.com/nfl-vi...egular-season/ "Despite having two extra games during the wildcard round the playoffs this season, interest was not there from football fans around the United States. According to Sportico, ratings for the games were down 25% on Saturday compared to last year and 20% on Sunday. That’s a major downtick in ratings for the NFL." https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-tv-rating...rship-numbers/ "Disappointing NFL ratings are forcing television networks to restructure deals with advertisers to make up for the smaller audience, according to a Wall Street Journal report." https://deadline.com/2020/12/nfl-rat...rt-1234655747/ Most TV deals expire in 2022 and there will likely be a bidding war for contracts that benifit the NFL, but there is an assumption that the decline was due to Covid and the ratings will come back to the 5% annual growth observed most years. However, I would argue most viewers won't come back because of what the NFL (like other companies) has done to devalue their brand (wokeness). Rugby Saint II and Thirty3 like this.
	The Saints are 0-42 when running the ball less than 15 times in a game.

01-13-2021, 01:37 PM	#39
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,274	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by blackangold This stuff isn't hard to find... "That means for the 2020 regular season, NFL games averaged 15.1 million viewers, down 8% from 16.4 million for the 2019 regular season. This season’s decline comes after two consecutive years of 5% increases." https://frontofficesports.com/nfl-vi...egular-season/ "Despite having two extra games during the wildcard round the playoffs this season, interest was not there from football fans around the United States. According to Sportico, ratings for the games were down 25% on Saturday compared to last year and 20% on Sunday. That’s a major downtick in ratings for the NFL." https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-tv-rating...rship-numbers/ "Disappointing NFL ratings are forcing television networks to restructure deals with advertisers to make up for the smaller audience, according to a Wall Street Journal report." https://deadline.com/2020/12/nfl-rat...rt-1234655747/ Most TV deals expire in 2022 and there will likely be a bidding war for contracts that benifit the NFL, but there is an assumption that the decline was due to Covid and the ratings will come back to the 5% annual growth observed most years. However, I would argue most viewers won't come back because of what the NFL (like other companies) has done to devalue their brand (wokeness). Yes, ratings are down. But you stated that TV revenues were down ("TV revenue declined in a big way"). That simply not correct. TV revenues are contractual. They are set. But the fact remains that the NFL is still the most watched programming on broadcast television and the next round of deals will be higher than ever. The audience for the NFL isn't the same as it was ten years ago. It is far more global. It is more streaming based than ever. That portion of the population than appear to be butthurt by "wokeness" is a tiny minority. The rest of the audience is growing far faster than the few thinking they are some sort of rebel. Advertisers don't give a sh!t about your demographic anymore. Note the growing makeup of commercials featuring mixed marriages and gay relationships. You are a minority now. Face it.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill

01-13-2021, 10:55 PM	#40
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: 2021 NFL Free Agency: New Orleans Saints Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Yes, ratings are down. But you stated that TV revenues were down ("TV revenue declined in a big way"). That simply not correct. TV revenues are contractual. They are set. But the fact remains that the NFL is still the most watched programming on broadcast television and the next round of deals will be higher than ever. The audience for the NFL isn't the same as it was ten years ago. It is far more global. It is more streaming based than ever. That portion of the population than appear to be butthurt by "wokeness" is a tiny minority. The rest of the audience is growing far faster than the few thinking they are some sort of rebel. Advertisers don't give a sh!t about your demographic anymore. Note the growing makeup of commercials featuring mixed marriages and gay relationships. You are a minority now. Face it. Lol You’re assuming a lot there. To start, you’re assuming that advertising and programming today is centered to drive revenue or sell products. There is more propaganda in programming today than anything else. Considering the media across the country is controlled by less than 3% of the population.... but I digress. As for being a minority, yes I am indeed that. I have, and my people have been a minority for hundreds if not thousands of years. We are getting off topic a bit— Streaming is all ad captured, the legal stream services at least. You’re right it’s contracted and I stated that, but I also read that some media companies are able to recoup lost revenue they had amounted to 2.3 billion for the year.
	The Saints are 0-42 when running the ball less than 15 times in a game.