The Deep QB Draft

AsylumGuido · 03-08-2021, 05:10 PM

Originally Posted by neugey

I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me.

Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row.

TheOak · 03-09-2021, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row.

So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend?

AsylumGuido · 03-09-2021, 12:44 PM

Originally Posted by TheOak

So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend?

Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option.

TheOak · 03-10-2021, 08:20 AM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option.

There aren't even statistically slim rosy scenarios for the team and 2021 Guido, only a scenario that feeds your desires.

If Drew stays we are hit with $12.5M, if he leaves we are hit with $11.5M this year and next.

If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. If he stays with a less talented roster there is a higher probability he will get injured again.. We can rationalize his injuries in 2019 and 2020 as flukes but two flukes starts a trend and he is getting injured because either the line cant protect him or he cant protect himself anymore. Those rib fractures happened over time, not because he fell once.

It is time for a new dawn Guido whether you like it or not. We cant have any sort of quarterback discussion on these forums without you coming in and making Drew the center of the discussion. Nothing in what Smash posted is about Drew, he isn't even mentioned, I was hoping you would respond with something other than what you did.

Boston Saint · 03-10-2021, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by TheOak

If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell.

Not sure I agree with this Oak. In that playoff game they had an injured Thomas, no Hill, no Murray, no consistent WR behind Sanders, and no Harris after the first quarter. Looking back, Brees had no healthy, quality targets to throw to in that game outside of Sanders and Kamara. The only players lost so far are Easton (providing Ruiz continues to improve he’s expendable), Cook ( who cost the game IMO) and Hill (great blocker but easily replaceable in the pass game).

The team got hit with the injury bug late while Tampa got healthy at the right time aided by a late season bye. Loomis is doing his restructure work. Kamara, Thomas, and Oline quality will still be there in 2021. I don’t think there will be a massive talent drop off like you are predicting. We will see though.

TheOak · 03-11-2021, 07:18 AM

Originally Posted by Boston Saint

Not sure I agree with this Oak. In that playoff game they had an injured Thomas, no Hill, no Murray, no consistent WR behind Sanders, and no Harris after the first quarter. Looking back, Brees had no healthy, quality targets to throw to in that game outside of Sanders and Kamara. The only players lost so far are Easton (providing Ruiz continues to improve he’s expendable), Cook ( who cost the game IMO) and Hill (great blocker but easily replaceable in the pass game).

The team got hit with the injury bug late while Tampa got healthy at the right time aided by a late season bye. Loomis is doing his restructure work. Kamara, Thomas, and Oline quality will still be there in 2021. I don’t think there will be a massive talent drop off like you are predicting. We will see though.

We aren't at a point to say 'we will see' just yet as we do not have our roster yet. Your scenario excludes 1/2 the team as you did not account for the defenses contribution to the 2020 season and you also did not recognize that we still have $40M in cuts to make.

That last $40M will hurt badly, largest easiest moves have been made the rest will dig deeply into our depth, football is a game of attrition not who starts. The Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns applies to the rest of our cap cutting efforts.

You may have forgotten that we still need another QB regardless of Drew's decision? If he stays we need a 3rd as he has not played a 16 game season since 2018 and Taysom is utilized quite a bit in non QB roles, if he leaves then we still need at least a starter or back up for Taysom. Winston is not counted against the cap because he is a free agent but needs to be accounted for theoretically because we need another QB.

Someone asked how much is left to be able to start the season under the cap? Well, we aren't 1/2 way to Disney Land just yet.

Boston Saint · 03-11-2021, 07:32 AM

Originally Posted by TheOak

We aren't at a point to say 'we will see' just yet as we do not have our roster yet. Your scenario excludes 1/2 the team as you did not account for the defenses contribution to the 2020 season and you also did not recognize that we still have $40M in cuts to make.

That last $40M will hurt badly, largest easiest moves have been made the rest will dig deeply into our depth, football is a game of attrition not who starts. The Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns applies to the rest of our cap cutting efforts.

You may have forgotten that we still need another QB regardless of Drew's decision? If he stays we need a 3rd as he has not played a 16 game season since 2018 and Taysom is utilized quite a bit in non QB roles, if he leaves then we still need at least a starter or back up for Taysom. Winston is not counted against the cap because he is a free agent but needs to be accounted for theoretically because we need another QB.

Someone asked how much is left to be able to start the season under the cap? Well, we aren't 1/2 way to Disney Land just yet.

So, like I said, we will see what happens.

03-08-2021, 05:10 PM	#1
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,573	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by neugey I'm expecting Fields, Jones and Mond to be busts or non-factors before long. Lance is a project who if I had to bet, won't pan out. That leaves just Lawrence and Wilson and possibly 1-2 sleepers. I could be way off, but that's what my gut and time watching college ball last year is telling me. Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row.

03-09-2021, 12:03 PM	#2
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,043	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Sounds about right. Anyone counting on a savior in the draft at QB is betting on very tiny odds. We may have to draft 20 (edit: okay, maybe 10) to get one as a viable long term starter. Unless we can manage to only win a game or two for few years in a row. So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend?

03-09-2021, 12:44 PM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,573	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by TheOak So what’s your plan Guido... What high probability scenario would you recommend? Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option.

03-10-2021, 08:20 AM	#4
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,043	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Having Brees decide to return would be ideal. Beyond that, the scenarios, in my opinion, are not very rosy. We can retain Taysom Hill as a starter and start taking chances on an annual basis drafting QB's in hope that one of them eventually pans out to be a decent option. There aren't even statistically slim rosy scenarios for the team and 2021 Guido, only a scenario that feeds your desires. If Drew stays we are hit with $12.5M, if he leaves we are hit with $11.5M this year and next. If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. If he stays with a less talented roster there is a higher probability he will get injured again.. We can rationalize his injuries in 2019 and 2020 as flukes but two flukes starts a trend and he is getting injured because either the line cant protect him or he cant protect himself anymore. Those rib fractures happened over time, not because he fell once. It is time for a new dawn Guido whether you like it or not. We cant have any sort of quarterback discussion on these forums without you coming in and making Drew the center of the discussion. Nothing in what Smash posted is about Drew, he isn't even mentioned, I was hoping you would respond with something other than what you did. jnormand and SmashMouth like this.
	It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau

03-10-2021, 08:42 AM	#5
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by TheOak If he stays the odds of a repeat of a 2020 season are slimmer than drafting a franchise QB because he will have a fair bit less talent around him due to cap hell. Not sure I agree with this Oak. In that playoff game they had an injured Thomas, no Hill, no Murray, no consistent WR behind Sanders, and no Harris after the first quarter. Looking back, Brees had no healthy, quality targets to throw to in that game outside of Sanders and Kamara. The only players lost so far are Easton (providing Ruiz continues to improve he’s expendable), Cook ( who cost the game IMO) and Hill (great blocker but easily replaceable in the pass game). The team got hit with the injury bug late while Tampa got healthy at the right time aided by a late season bye. Loomis is doing his restructure work. Kamara, Thomas, and Oline quality will still be there in 2021. I don’t think there will be a massive talent drop off like you are predicting. We will see though.
	You think you know, but you don’t know...and you never will! Coach Jim Mora

03-11-2021, 07:18 AM	#6
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,043	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by Boston Saint Not sure I agree with this Oak. In that playoff game they had an injured Thomas, no Hill, no Murray, no consistent WR behind Sanders, and no Harris after the first quarter. Looking back, Brees had no healthy, quality targets to throw to in that game outside of Sanders and Kamara. The only players lost so far are Easton (providing Ruiz continues to improve he’s expendable), Cook ( who cost the game IMO) and Hill (great blocker but easily replaceable in the pass game). The team got hit with the injury bug late while Tampa got healthy at the right time aided by a late season bye. Loomis is doing his restructure work. Kamara, Thomas, and Oline quality will still be there in 2021. I don’t think there will be a massive talent drop off like you are predicting. We will see though. We aren't at a point to say 'we will see' just yet as we do not have our roster yet. Your scenario excludes 1/2 the team as you did not account for the defenses contribution to the 2020 season and you also did not recognize that we still have $40M in cuts to make. That last $40M will hurt badly, largest easiest moves have been made the rest will dig deeply into our depth, football is a game of attrition not who starts. The Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns applies to the rest of our cap cutting efforts. You may have forgotten that we still need another QB regardless of Drew's decision? If he stays we need a 3rd as he has not played a 16 game season since 2018 and Taysom is utilized quite a bit in non QB roles, if he leaves then we still need at least a starter or back up for Taysom. Winston is not counted against the cap because he is a free agent but needs to be accounted for theoretically because we need another QB. Someone asked how much is left to be able to start the season under the cap? Well, we aren't 1/2 way to Disney Land just yet.
	It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau

03-11-2021, 07:32 AM	#7
Boston Saint 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 5,137	Re: The Deep QB Draft Originally Posted by TheOak We aren't at a point to say 'we will see' just yet as we do not have our roster yet. Your scenario excludes 1/2 the team as you did not account for the defenses contribution to the 2020 season and you also did not recognize that we still have $40M in cuts to make. That last $40M will hurt badly, largest easiest moves have been made the rest will dig deeply into our depth, football is a game of attrition not who starts. The Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns applies to the rest of our cap cutting efforts. You may have forgotten that we still need another QB regardless of Drew's decision? If he stays we need a 3rd as he has not played a 16 game season since 2018 and Taysom is utilized quite a bit in non QB roles, if he leaves then we still need at least a starter or back up for Taysom. Winston is not counted against the cap because he is a free agent but needs to be accounted for theoretically because we need another QB. Someone asked how much is left to be able to start the season under the cap? Well, we aren't 1/2 way to Disney Land just yet. So, like I said, we will see what happens. AsylumGuido and K Major like this.