Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-08-2020, 05:24 PM

Ferguson, Osterholm, and Lipsitch(one of the guys that worked on that model the US keeps showing)... three of the world's best epidemiologists are all echoing the same exact thing. If we kept containment for 12-15 months, that 90k may be a reality. Then you have to worry about survival, food chains, chemical reagents for testing(which come from China by the way), supply chains, schools, the economy, etc. The moment we go back to the way things were, it will run through the US like lightning. They thought they had the Spanish flu contained too, and then it came back.

blackangold · 04-08-2020, 07:21 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

All of their numbers are only projected into July. They don't account for the virus spreading through the population after we leave isolation. Their model is a pipe dream.

Cool story...

Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do.

I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

hitta · 04-08-2020, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Cool story...

Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do.

I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

That's not an opinion, that's an actual fact. The models they are using are assuming Wuhan like lockdown scenario and that we stay in containment. They don't account for the virus coming back and respreading. The Lipsitch guy who was a big part of putting together the governments model will tell you that himself.

burningmetal · 04-08-2020, 10:50 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread. The numbers I used didn't match either model. If you think the virus is going to die off in the spring, you are making a completely false assumption. The rate of transfer is much too high, this isn't influenza which has a sub 1 R0. The whole handwashing, surface cleaning,etc...those aren't even close to being primary infection pathways...there's not even a lot of evidence to suggest those are true pathways to infection.People are actually cleaning to a great extent, which probably doesn't even help a whole lot. It's mainly just breathing air. It will still be transferred via droplets. The humidity and heat may slow down aerosolized transfer quite a bit. The rate of transfer will still be high(higher than 1.5 at the very least). The summer months aren't going to stop air to air contact. I'm not overthinking ****, you are under thinking. The CDC has little to no input on what the government is saying right now, if they did they would be saying something completely different. They've pretty much been sidelined throughout the entire process.

I'm going to remember this thread though so I can come back to it later on.

I don't know, for the life of me, why any of us are bothering to talk to you, but here I go again: You sit there and ADMIT that you picked a model, even though it was brought to your attention multiple times that the model you used was outdated and long since proven inaccurate... And you say "The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread".

Everything you said from that point was complete rubbish. You can't use a model, that was PROVEN to be faulty, and say "well, I was just using that to show how it would spread". Are you kidding me? How stupid do you think I am? Your whole premise is based on a broken model, and you think you can just put it back together and make it show something accurate? You have no idea what you're even saying, and neither do any of the rest of us, because you're literally just making things up as you go.

And I did not say the virus would be gone by the spring. It already is spring, first of all. I said that as the spring "settles in" the virus will "keep dying", as it has begun to do. I said it might be years before it's 100% gone. The point was that it will be easily manageable once we've come to the end of this cycle in the next couple of months. And that is good enough. The flu comes back every year. No one claims at the end of a flu season that kills between 60-80 thousand people that the virus will not return the next year, and yet we've always kept our normal way of life going.

Your doomsday rhetoric would have us all believe that we can NEVER leave our homes again, because it will just come back. Why? Why would it come back, based on people coming out of their homes, who presumably will not have the virus, considering we're all being quarantined? You make no sense.

This virus lasts on surfaces, supposedly, a little longer than the flu. Not weeks, or months, or years longer. The heat will kill it. The vast majority of it. And the only way for it to get airborne is for people to cough and sneeze it into the air. But there won't be very many carriers within the next couple of months. I know you would have us believe that you are some kind of viral expert, but you clearly are not. And neither am I, by the way. I just have a little common sense, and I don't rely on faulty models to make an argument.

hitta · 04-08-2020, 11:09 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Cool story...

Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do.

I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.

hitta · 04-08-2020, 11:11 PM

Originally Posted by burningmetal

I don't know, for the life of me, why any of us are bothering to talk to you, but here I go again: You sit there and ADMIT that you picked a model, even though it was brought to your attention multiple times that the model you used was outdated and long since proven inaccurate... And you say "The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread".

Everything you said from that point was complete rubbish. You can't use a model, that was PROVEN to be faulty, and say "well, I was just using that to show how it would spread". Are you kidding me? How stupid do you think I am? Your whole premise is based on a broken model, and you think you can just put it back together and make it show something accurate? You have no idea what you're even saying, and neither do any of the rest of us, because you're literally just making things up as you go.

And I did not say the virus would be gone by the spring. It already is spring, first of all. I said that as the spring "settles in" the virus will "keep dying", as it has begun to do. I said it might be years before it's 100% gone. The point was that it will be easily manageable once we've come to the end of this cycle in the next couple of months. And that is good enough. The flu comes back every year. No one claims at the end of a flu season that kills between 60-80 thousand people that the virus will not return the next year, and yet we've always kept our normal way of life going.

Your doomsday rhetoric would have us all believe that we can NEVER leave our homes again, because it will just come back. Why? Why would it come back, based on people coming out of their homes, who presumably will not have the virus, considering we're all being quarantined? You make no sense.

This virus lasts on surfaces, supposedly, a little longer than the flu. Not weeks, or months, or years longer. The heat will kill it. The vast majority of it. And the only way for it to get airborne is for people to cough and sneeze it into the air. But there won't be very many carriers within the next couple of months. I know you would have us believe that you are some kind of viral expert, but you clearly are not. And neither am I, by the way. I just have a little common sense, and I don't rely on faulty models to make an argument.

The model that I used wasn't outdated, Ferguson still stands by it completely if lockdown is lifted. If anything he has become even more pessimistic if social distancing doesn't continue cause he thinks the virus is a bit more transmissible.

Surfaces aren't even a primary source of spread, people are. The virus on surfaces or even if it's on your hands is very unlikely to infect you. It is mainly person to person transmission through air. The humidity can't kill something that is inside of someone else. A person can go a day or two and test negative and still have the virus because the virus load in their nasal passages is too low to detect. After this wave, we'll get imported cases and the whole process will begin again. You act as if there is no historical precedent for this. It's doing what most influenza pandemics have done, gone and come in waves. The Lancet study pretty much confirms this isn't over and is pretty much impossible to stop multiple waves.

Also, I don't want people to stay in their homes. The economy would fall apart. There has to be some sort of plan. We don't have a plan. You can either send the younger people back into the work force, get them infected... maybe like 20-30% which would slow down the rate of transmission quite substantially. Or you can isolation dance and go in and out of lockdown for a long period of time. We haven't even had a significant portion of our population get the virus. Why would it be more manageable the second time? Because of the heat? There have been several coronaviruses that have thrived in the heat (Mers, Sars). You are making assumptions on things that historical data doesn't back up. When a virus is transmissible from person to person through the air, it makes it very hard for the heat and humidity to stop it. We don't have to have 1.6 million people die, but if we prematurely declare victory and everyone goes out and doesn't give a **** we're going to end up with a lot of infections.

burningmetal · 04-08-2020, 11:43 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

The model that I used wasn't outdated, Ferguson still stands by it completely if lockdown is lifted. If anything he has become even more pessimistic if social distancing doesn't continue cause he thinks the virus is a bit more transmissible.

Surfaces aren't even a primary source of spread, people are. The virus on surfaces or even if it's on your hands is very unlikely to infect you. It is mainly person to person transmission through air. The humidity can't kill something that is inside of someone else. A person can go a day or two and test negative and still have the virus because the virus load in their nasal passages is too low to detect. After this wave, we'll get imported cases and the whole process will begin again. You act as if there is no historical precedent for this. It's doing what most influenza pandemics have done, gone and come in waves. The Lancet study pretty much confirms this isn't over and is pretty much impossible to stop multiple waves.

Also, I don't want people to stay in their homes. The economy would fall apart. There has to be some sort of plan. We don't have a plan. You can either send the younger people back into the work force, get them infected... maybe like 20-30% which would slow down the rate of transmission quite substantially. Or you can isolation dance and go in and out of lockdown for a long period of time. We haven't even had a significant portion of our population get the virus. Why would it be more manageable the second time? Because of the heat? There have been several coronaviruses that have thrived in the heat (Mers, Sars). You are making assumptions on things that historical data doesn't back up. When a virus is transmissible from person to person through the air, it makes it very hard for the heat and humidity to stop it. We don't have to have 1.6 million people die, but if we prematurely declare victory and everyone goes out and doesn't give a **** we're going to end up with a lot of infections.

The model IS outdated. They are merely moving the goal posts in trying to say their numbers will prove accurate when lockdown is lifted. In real science, you don't get to move the goal posts. You have to make a series of predictions that you would expect to see, if your hypothesis, or "model", is accurate. If any of those predictions are off, you have to start over with a new set of predictions. You can't say "well, it's wrong for now, but it'll be right later". Nope. That would have required that you predicted your first prediction would come up short. But then, that would mean your first prediction was just a guess, and not actually science. Which is, in fact, all these faulty models are. Guesses.

And you still miss the main point about surface spread. Sure, it might spread more through the air. "Might". But in order for this thing to make a comeback, with all of us stuck in our homes, we'd have to be constantly touching surfaces that contain the virus, for people to keep getting sick. But the virus isn't going to last long on surfaces. So the question is, how many people are going to be sick in the summer months to be ABLE to spread it by air? Not many.

Once more, I did NOT say it will be 100% gone. But it will be very mild. Nothing that we don't deal with in a year in, year out basis. You keep shouting from the rooftops "IT'S GOING TO COME BACK, WE CAN'T STOP IT!". Nobody is telling you there won't be a trace of it. But between the heat, and our immune systems building a natural defense to this virus, it will be even less of a big deal than it already is. We can't build immunity by hiding from the virus.

And I am not making assumptions, nor does historical data fail to back me up. This information comes from real scientists who actually study infectious diseases and know their history and tendencies. Government paid "science" never provides accurate data. That's how you end up with a prediction that the bird flu would kill 150 million people, and yet, to date, it has killed 350 people in 20 plus years.

And as for this: "There have been several coronaviruses that have thrived in the heat (Mers, Sars)."... Total lie.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coron...b6beedb4e8af9b "Looking back at SARS, one study identified an 18-fold increase of infections in colder temps compared to warmer days. Another report looked at how the virus behaved in different environments and found that its viability rapidly declined at higher temperatures and humidity levels. The researchers found the SARS virus became increasingly inactivated as temperatures and humidity rose.

Similarly to SARS, MERS — which was mostly spread from animals to humans — also seemed to be stronger in cold, dry weather. Researchers in one study stated, “coronaviruses have been shown to exhibit strong seasonal variation in natural hosts.” They found that that colder, drier conditions increased the risk of MERS transmission from camels to humans."

And that is the freaking Huff Post. They aren't exactly on my side of the political spectrum, lest you believe I've got an agenda. The heat will slow it significantly, period. We have a treatment that is working (even though the fake science community refuses to acknowledge it), and we will build "herd" immunity faster by having been exposed to it, rather than hiding from it.

blackangold · 04-08-2020, 11:52 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.

This will be my last reply...

First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information.

Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death.

Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19.

Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities.

A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.”

I wish you all the best!

hitta · 04-09-2020, 01:22 AM

Originally Posted by blackangold

This will be my last reply...

First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information.

Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death.

Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19.

Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities.

A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.”

I wish you all the best!

I can't even reply to that. There is so much wrong with what you just said, I don't even know how to deal with it. You say that flattening the curve is intended to decrease the number of infections in hospitals and not overload the system. This is true. It shouldn't shorten the model though. Flattening the curve should extend the infections into the later part of the year. What we've done is social distanced so much that R0 is or will be <1. A small percentage of the population has been infected. The virus will be reintroduced. The IFR you keep posting is incredibly optimistic cause it assumes an unmitgated R0 of around 3.5. I can promise you that the virus has never shown any signs of doubling in 1.8 days. Osterholms team followed around workers for weeks trying to see how rapid the spread was, and they isolated it to be somewhere around 2.5. The other points you've made... I just can't deal with. 60-80%(which is optimistic if the R0 is 3.5) of the population getting infected even with a .2% death rate is 390K-520K.
Also the seasonality thing is highly debatable. Like I said, other coronavirus have done incredibly well in warm weather.

hitta · 04-09-2020, 01:28 AM

Also I want to point out that a big portion of the deaths that are caused by coronavirus aren't being considered coronavirus deaths. They list the cause of death as heart attack, pneumonia , or whatever and the person is never actually tested for the virus.

04-08-2020, 05:24 PM	#61
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Ferguson, Osterholm, and Lipsitch(one of the guys that worked on that model the US keeps showing)... three of the world's best epidemiologists are all echoing the same exact thing. If we kept containment for 12-15 months, that 90k may be a reality. Then you have to worry about survival, food chains, chemical reagents for testing(which come from China by the way), supply chains, schools, the economy, etc. The moment we go back to the way things were, it will run through the US like lightning. They thought they had the Spanish flu contained too, and then it came back. Rugby Saint II likes this.
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04-08-2020, 07:21 PM	#62
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta All of their numbers are only projected into July. They don't account for the virus spreading through the population after we leave isolation. Their model is a pipe dream. Cool story... Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do. I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this.

04-08-2020, 08:49 PM	#63
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Cool story... Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do. I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this. That's not an opinion, that's an actual fact. The models they are using are assuming Wuhan like lockdown scenario and that we stay in containment. They don't account for the virus coming back and respreading. The Lipsitch guy who was a big part of putting together the governments model will tell you that himself.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324

04-08-2020, 10:50 PM	#64
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread. The numbers I used didn't match either model. If you think the virus is going to die off in the spring, you are making a completely false assumption. The rate of transfer is much too high, this isn't influenza which has a sub 1 R0. The whole handwashing, surface cleaning,etc...those aren't even close to being primary infection pathways...there's not even a lot of evidence to suggest those are true pathways to infection.People are actually cleaning to a great extent, which probably doesn't even help a whole lot. It's mainly just breathing air. It will still be transferred via droplets. The humidity and heat may slow down aerosolized transfer quite a bit. The rate of transfer will still be high(higher than 1.5 at the very least). The summer months aren't going to stop air to air contact. I'm not overthinking ****, you are under thinking. The CDC has little to no input on what the government is saying right now, if they did they would be saying something completely different. They've pretty much been sidelined throughout the entire process. I'm going to remember this thread though so I can come back to it later on. I don't know, for the life of me, why any of us are bothering to talk to you, but here I go again: You sit there and ADMIT that you picked a model, even though it was brought to your attention multiple times that the model you used was outdated and long since proven inaccurate... And you say "The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread". Everything you said from that point was complete rubbish. You can't use a model, that was PROVEN to be faulty, and say "well, I was just using that to show how it would spread". Are you kidding me? How stupid do you think I am? Your whole premise is based on a broken model, and you think you can just put it back together and make it show something accurate? You have no idea what you're even saying, and neither do any of the rest of us, because you're literally just making things up as you go. And I did not say the virus would be gone by the spring. It already is spring, first of all. I said that as the spring "settles in" the virus will "keep dying", as it has begun to do. I said it might be years before it's 100% gone. The point was that it will be easily manageable once we've come to the end of this cycle in the next couple of months. And that is good enough. The flu comes back every year. No one claims at the end of a flu season that kills between 60-80 thousand people that the virus will not return the next year, and yet we've always kept our normal way of life going. Your doomsday rhetoric would have us all believe that we can NEVER leave our homes again, because it will just come back. Why? Why would it come back, based on people coming out of their homes, who presumably will not have the virus, considering we're all being quarantined? You make no sense. This virus lasts on surfaces, supposedly, a little longer than the flu. Not weeks, or months, or years longer. The heat will kill it. The vast majority of it. And the only way for it to get airborne is for people to cough and sneeze it into the air. But there won't be very many carriers within the next couple of months. I know you would have us believe that you are some kind of viral expert, but you clearly are not. And neither am I, by the way. I just have a little common sense, and I don't rely on faulty models to make an argument. blackangold likes this.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

04-08-2020, 11:09 PM	#65
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Cool story... Again, if you have something of value to share like research papers by accredited people or properly backed government or institutional studies then please do. I am certainly not going to care about some random person’s opinion on a Internet forum when it comes to things like this. The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though.
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04-08-2020, 11:11 PM	#66
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by burningmetal I don't know, for the life of me, why any of us are bothering to talk to you, but here I go again: You sit there and ADMIT that you picked a model, even though it was brought to your attention multiple times that the model you used was outdated and long since proven inaccurate... And you say "The only reason I picked the models was to show to what extent the virus would spread". Everything you said from that point was complete rubbish. You can't use a model, that was PROVEN to be faulty, and say "well, I was just using that to show how it would spread". Are you kidding me? How stupid do you think I am? Your whole premise is based on a broken model, and you think you can just put it back together and make it show something accurate? You have no idea what you're even saying, and neither do any of the rest of us, because you're literally just making things up as you go. And I did not say the virus would be gone by the spring. It already is spring, first of all. I said that as the spring "settles in" the virus will "keep dying", as it has begun to do. I said it might be years before it's 100% gone. The point was that it will be easily manageable once we've come to the end of this cycle in the next couple of months. And that is good enough. The flu comes back every year. No one claims at the end of a flu season that kills between 60-80 thousand people that the virus will not return the next year, and yet we've always kept our normal way of life going. Your doomsday rhetoric would have us all believe that we can NEVER leave our homes again, because it will just come back. Why? Why would it come back, based on people coming out of their homes, who presumably will not have the virus, considering we're all being quarantined? You make no sense. This virus lasts on surfaces, supposedly, a little longer than the flu. Not weeks, or months, or years longer. The heat will kill it. The vast majority of it. And the only way for it to get airborne is for people to cough and sneeze it into the air. But there won't be very many carriers within the next couple of months. I know you would have us believe that you are some kind of viral expert, but you clearly are not. And neither am I, by the way. I just have a little common sense, and I don't rely on faulty models to make an argument. The model that I used wasn't outdated, Ferguson still stands by it completely if lockdown is lifted. If anything he has become even more pessimistic if social distancing doesn't continue cause he thinks the virus is a bit more transmissible. Surfaces aren't even a primary source of spread, people are. The virus on surfaces or even if it's on your hands is very unlikely to infect you. It is mainly person to person transmission through air. The humidity can't kill something that is inside of someone else. A person can go a day or two and test negative and still have the virus because the virus load in their nasal passages is too low to detect. After this wave, we'll get imported cases and the whole process will begin again. You act as if there is no historical precedent for this. It's doing what most influenza pandemics have done, gone and come in waves. The Lancet study pretty much confirms this isn't over and is pretty much impossible to stop multiple waves. Also, I don't want people to stay in their homes. The economy would fall apart. There has to be some sort of plan. We don't have a plan. You can either send the younger people back into the work force, get them infected... maybe like 20-30% which would slow down the rate of transmission quite substantially. Or you can isolation dance and go in and out of lockdown for a long period of time. We haven't even had a significant portion of our population get the virus. Why would it be more manageable the second time? Because of the heat? There have been several coronaviruses that have thrived in the heat (Mers, Sars). You are making assumptions on things that historical data doesn't back up. When a virus is transmissible from person to person through the air, it makes it very hard for the heat and humidity to stop it. We don't have to have 1.6 million people die, but if we prematurely declare victory and everyone goes out and doesn't give a **** we're going to end up with a lot of infections. Rugby Saint II likes this.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324

04-08-2020, 11:43 PM	#67
burningmetal 1000 Posts + Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 3,923 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta The model that I used wasn't outdated, Ferguson still stands by it completely if lockdown is lifted. If anything he has become even more pessimistic if social distancing doesn't continue cause he thinks the virus is a bit more transmissible. Surfaces aren't even a primary source of spread, people are. The virus on surfaces or even if it's on your hands is very unlikely to infect you. It is mainly person to person transmission through air. The humidity can't kill something that is inside of someone else. A person can go a day or two and test negative and still have the virus because the virus load in their nasal passages is too low to detect. After this wave, we'll get imported cases and the whole process will begin again. You act as if there is no historical precedent for this. It's doing what most influenza pandemics have done, gone and come in waves. The Lancet study pretty much confirms this isn't over and is pretty much impossible to stop multiple waves. Also, I don't want people to stay in their homes. The economy would fall apart. There has to be some sort of plan. We don't have a plan. You can either send the younger people back into the work force, get them infected... maybe like 20-30% which would slow down the rate of transmission quite substantially. Or you can isolation dance and go in and out of lockdown for a long period of time. We haven't even had a significant portion of our population get the virus. Why would it be more manageable the second time? Because of the heat? There have been several coronaviruses that have thrived in the heat (Mers, Sars). You are making assumptions on things that historical data doesn't back up. When a virus is transmissible from person to person through the air, it makes it very hard for the heat and humidity to stop it. We don't have to have 1.6 million people die, but if we prematurely declare victory and everyone goes out and doesn't give a **** we're going to end up with a lot of infections. The model IS outdated. They are merely moving the goal posts in trying to say their numbers will prove accurate when lockdown is lifted. In real science, you don't get to move the goal posts. You have to make a series of predictions that you would expect to see, if your hypothesis, or "model", is accurate. If any of those predictions are off, you have to start over with a new set of predictions. You can't say "well, it's wrong for now, but it'll be right later". Nope. That would have required that you predicted your first prediction would come up short. But then, that would mean your first prediction was just a guess, and not actually science. Which is, in fact, all these faulty models are. Guesses. And you still miss the main point about surface spread. Sure, it might spread more through the air. "Might". But in order for this thing to make a comeback, with all of us stuck in our homes, we'd have to be constantly touching surfaces that contain the virus, for people to keep getting sick. But the virus isn't going to last long on surfaces. So the question is, how many people are going to be sick in the summer months to be ABLE to spread it by air? Not many. Once more, I did NOT say it will be 100% gone. But it will be very mild. Nothing that we don't deal with in a year in, year out basis. You keep shouting from the rooftops "IT'S GOING TO COME BACK, WE CAN'T STOP IT!". Nobody is telling you there won't be a trace of it. But between the heat, and our immune systems building a natural defense to this virus, it will be even less of a big deal than it already is. We can't build immunity by hiding from the virus. And I am not making assumptions, nor does historical data fail to back me up. This information comes from real scientists who actually study infectious diseases and know their history and tendencies. Government paid "science" never provides accurate data. That's how you end up with a prediction that the bird flu would kill 150 million people, and yet, to date, it has killed 350 people in 20 plus years. And as for this: "There have been several coronaviruses that have thrived in the heat (Mers, Sars)."... Total lie. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coron...b6beedb4e8af9b "Looking back at SARS, one study identified an 18-fold increase of infections in colder temps compared to warmer days. Another report looked at how the virus behaved in different environments and found that its viability rapidly declined at higher temperatures and humidity levels. The researchers found the SARS virus became increasingly inactivated as temperatures and humidity rose. Similarly to SARS, MERS — which was mostly spread from animals to humans — also seemed to be stronger in cold, dry weather. Researchers in one study stated, “coronaviruses have been shown to exhibit strong seasonal variation in natural hosts.” They found that that colder, drier conditions increased the risk of MERS transmission from camels to humans." And that is the freaking Huff Post. They aren't exactly on my side of the political spectrum, lest you believe I've got an agenda. The heat will slow it significantly, period. We have a treatment that is working (even though the fake science community refuses to acknowledge it), and we will build "herd" immunity faster by having been exposed to it, rather than hiding from it. Rugby Saint II likes this.
	If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

04-08-2020, 11:52 PM	#68
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta The models that the government are using and are being adjusted now are smoking some good ****. You'll see soon. You have no idea how similar this is to an influenza pandemic. Historically very similar things have happened as to what is happening now and the way the virus spreads. If you want to rely on the dumb models that end in June/July be my guest. You're going to be in for quite the surprise though. This will be my last reply... First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information. Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death. Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19. Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities. A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.” I wish you all the best! burningmetal likes this.
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04-09-2020, 01:22 AM	#69
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold This will be my last reply... First, the models are inaccurate, they overestimate the deaths not underestimate. This is why the have been revised down now 4 times. The research article I linked also mentioned this same thing occurring with swine flu. Meanwhile, after debunking the article your relying on for multiple reasons you refuse to believe the newest information. Second, I have no doubt that this will be seasonal and multiple epidemiologist have mentioned this. Perhaps you don’t understand what is really going on with “flatten the curve”. The goal is not to limit the spread of the infection. The goal IS to stretch the peak out so hospitals can handle the situation and care for patients without experiencing a surge. In surge situations patients end up dying in hallways and can’t get the treatment they need leading to more death. Lastly, “flattening the curve” will not provide less infections, it only intends to slow it down for the reason above. Much like the flu there will be herd immunity with 60-80% of the population contracting the virus and successfully building antibodies. Because of the low IFR this is a very reasonable approach and the same approach is taken with the flu. Deaths don’t spike in the second round because of this immunity, it doesn’t spread through people with antibodies. Will people that have pre-existing conditions or older than 70 be at high risk next year? Yes, absolutely. However, as the more people begin to have antibodies the risk to the at-risk population goes down... just like the flu. Something to think about... if a 75 year old with pre-existing conditions gets the flu they are just as likely to die as if they had covid 19. Now... because I am an optimistic person, I saw the signs. I bought the dip, I am currently up 36% after 7 days in the market. You can decide to live scared if you like, but others will take advantage of opportunities. A smart man once said, “when others are fearful, be greedy, when others are greedy, be fearful.” I wish you all the best! I can't even reply to that. There is so much wrong with what you just said, I don't even know how to deal with it. You say that flattening the curve is intended to decrease the number of infections in hospitals and not overload the system. This is true. It shouldn't shorten the model though. Flattening the curve should extend the infections into the later part of the year. What we've done is social distanced so much that R0 is or will be <1. A small percentage of the population has been infected. The virus will be reintroduced. The IFR you keep posting is incredibly optimistic cause it assumes an unmitgated R0 of around 3.5. I can promise you that the virus has never shown any signs of doubling in 1.8 days. Osterholms team followed around workers for weeks trying to see how rapid the spread was, and they isolated it to be somewhere around 2.5. The other points you've made... I just can't deal with. 60-80%(which is optimistic if the R0 is 3.5) of the population getting infected even with a .2% death rate is 390K-520K. Also the seasonality thing is highly debatable. Like I said, other coronavirus have done incredibly well in warm weather.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324

04-09-2020, 01:28 AM	#70
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Also I want to point out that a big portion of the deaths that are caused by coronavirus aren't being considered coronavirus deaths. They list the cause of death as heart attack, pneumonia , or whatever and the person is never actually tested for the virus. Rugby Saint II likes this.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,324