Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-07-2020, 10:42 PM

Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also.

blackangold · 04-08-2020, 12:08 AM

Originally Posted by hitta

Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also.

If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships...

hitta · 04-08-2020, 12:34 AM

Originally Posted by blackangold

If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships...

Yes, I know that. It concluded the onboard IFR was 1.2-1.3%. The modelling they are using though is that the virus is far more transmittable than most other models suggest(They used an R0 of 3.58 as opposed to 2-2.5). They assume that there are far more asymptomatic carriers than most other models predict, and that a much larger portion of the population has already been infected. If their R0 is wrong then their IFR is wrong, as their wouldn't be as many cases. Also, if the R0 is higher, more people will end up being infected. You can't just say the death toll would be a lot lower because the IFR is lower because all of the variables are interdependent. Do you realize how quickly a doubling time of 1.8 days would spread?

hitta · 04-08-2020, 12:50 AM

Also, I want to point out there have been over 40 strains discovered. A lot of their statistical data is based on the Iceland study. Iceland obviously got hit with a very hospital strain of the virus. If it stays asymptomatic, it spreads more. This in itself both artificially inflates R0 and lowers IFR.

The Dude · 04-08-2020, 01:21 AM

I’m not a conspiracy theorist by any means but I’m starting to think all this data is BS. Maybe they just don’t know and are putting stuff out there so people don’t go all Lord of the Flies and ****. Whatever we are being told isn’t the whole story, for whatever reason. Maybe it’s not nefarious, maybe it is but I doubt we ever get true numbers.

hitta · 04-08-2020, 01:35 AM

Originally Posted by The Dude

I’m not a conspiracy theorist by any means but I’m starting to think all this data is BS. Maybe they just don’t know and are putting stuff out there so people don’t go all Lord of the Flies and ****. Whatever we are being told isn’t the whole story, for whatever reason. Maybe it’s not nefarious, maybe it is but I doubt we ever get true numbers.

It is BS. That's what people don't understand about models like this. They are just stepwise functions or algorithms that work like stepwise functions. They are only as good as the variables and data being accounted for. Algorithms recompute the stepwise function around the data added. Epidemiology is more complicated than models can account for.

hitta · 04-08-2020, 01:39 AM

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...of-coronavirus

This is our future. Stopping it is like stopping the wind.

hitta · 04-08-2020, 07:41 AM

BTW https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...ains-unchanged

The Dude · 04-08-2020, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by hitta

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...of-coronavirus

This is our future. Stopping it is like stopping the wind.

I do not believe a word of anything that comes out of China. All experts agree that the numbers coming out of China are incorrect. I also question the legitimacy of the Examiner.

saintsfan1976 · 04-08-2020, 10:21 AM

Yes. I do a season happening this year. Offseason programs will be impacted. Attendance will be low. But I see it coming together by Fall.

04-07-2020, 10:42 PM	#41
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320

04-08-2020, 12:08 AM	#42
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta Cruise ships are almost perfect testing conditions for studying IFR because CFR=IFR. The only real issue is a mediocre sample size. Diamond Princess had an IFR estimation of 1.3%. It also pretty much conformed to the R0 between 2-3. Just want to point that out also. If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships...

04-08-2020, 12:34 AM	#43
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold If you would’ve read the article I linked on IFR you’d know that they cover the cruise ships... Yes, I know that. It concluded the onboard IFR was 1.2-1.3%. The modelling they are using though is that the virus is far more transmittable than most other models suggest(They used an R0 of 3.58 as opposed to 2-2.5). They assume that there are far more asymptomatic carriers than most other models predict, and that a much larger portion of the population has already been infected. If their R0 is wrong then their IFR is wrong, as their wouldn't be as many cases. Also, if the R0 is higher, more people will end up being infected. You can't just say the death toll would be a lot lower because the IFR is lower because all of the variables are interdependent. Do you realize how quickly a doubling time of 1.8 days would spread?
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320

04-08-2020, 12:50 AM	#44
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Also, I want to point out there have been over 40 strains discovered. A lot of their statistical data is based on the Iceland study. Iceland obviously got hit with a very hospital strain of the virus. If it stays asymptomatic, it spreads more. This in itself both artificially inflates R0 and lowers IFR.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320

04-08-2020, 01:21 AM	#45
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,048	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? I’m not a conspiracy theorist by any means but I’m starting to think all this data is BS. Maybe they just don’t know and are putting stuff out there so people don’t go all Lord of the Flies and ****. Whatever we are being told isn’t the whole story, for whatever reason. Maybe it’s not nefarious, maybe it is but I doubt we ever get true numbers.
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,048

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04-08-2020, 01:35 AM	#46
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by The Dude I’m not a conspiracy theorist by any means but I’m starting to think all this data is BS. Maybe they just don’t know and are putting stuff out there so people don’t go all Lord of the Flies and ****. Whatever we are being told isn’t the whole story, for whatever reason. Maybe it’s not nefarious, maybe it is but I doubt we ever get true numbers. It is BS. That's what people don't understand about models like this. They are just stepwise functions or algorithms that work like stepwise functions. They are only as good as the variables and data being accounted for. Algorithms recompute the stepwise function around the data added. Epidemiology is more complicated than models can account for.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320

04-08-2020, 01:39 AM	#47
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...of-coronavirus This is our future. Stopping it is like stopping the wind.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320

04-08-2020, 07:41 AM	#48
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? BTW https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...ains-unchanged
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,320

04-08-2020, 10:19 AM	#49
The Dude 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 9,048	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...of-coronavirus This is our future. Stopping it is like stopping the wind. I do not believe a word of anything that comes out of China. All experts agree that the numbers coming out of China are incorrect. I also question the legitimacy of the Examiner. blackangold likes this.
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04-08-2020, 10:21 AM	#50
saintsfan1976 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 10,832 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Yes. I do a season happening this year. Offseason programs will be impacted. Attendance will be low. But I see it coming together by Fall.