Do you see a 2020 season happening?

blackangold · 04-06-2020, 10:37 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

Oxford/Imperial College models and Michael Osterholm. The models the US are using are assuming China like lockdown scenario and that we won't have a resurgence of cases. Lets do some ballpark math....25% percent of the population gets infected at 1% death rate...about 800k. 50% would be 1.6 million dying..it could be even more than that. The Oxford/Imperial college model puts it between 1-2 million. The idea that we can just lockdown and stop it is ridiculous, especially with asymptomatic carriers being the primary drivers. That's what the US models assume.

No, your not using the Oxford model because that is estimating IFR to be 5-6x of the common flu. Your also ignoring the fact that 90% of fatalities have at least 1 per-existing condition. Take this into consideration and factor in that mitigation is occurring, then understand that the US model WAS showing 140-220k deaths mid March which has already been reduced to 80k as of yesterday.

Go ahead and provide a link to the model. I linked the projections and actual Oxford model of IFR on page 2 of this thread.

Edit:
Here is an excerpt if you don’t want to look at the research article.

“ We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%.

Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.*”

04-06-2020, 10:37 PM	#11
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta Oxford/Imperial College models and Michael Osterholm. The models the US are using are assuming China like lockdown scenario and that we won't have a resurgence of cases. Lets do some ballpark math....25% percent of the population gets infected at 1% death rate...about 800k. 50% would be 1.6 million dying..it could be even more than that. The Oxford/Imperial college model puts it between 1-2 million. The idea that we can just lockdown and stop it is ridiculous, especially with asymptomatic carriers being the primary drivers. That's what the US models assume. No, your not using the Oxford model because that is estimating IFR to be 5-6x of the common flu. Your also ignoring the fact that 90% of fatalities have at least 1 per-existing condition. Take this into consideration and factor in that mitigation is occurring, then understand that the US model WAS showing 140-220k deaths mid March which has already been reduced to 80k as of yesterday. Go ahead and provide a link to the model. I linked the projections and actual Oxford model of IFR on page 2 of this thread. Edit: Here is an excerpt if you don’t want to look at the research article. “ We could make a simple estimation of the IFR as 0.26%, based on halving the lowest boundary of the CFR prediction interval. However, the considerable uncertainty over how many people have the disease means an IFR of 0.26 is likely an overestimate. In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies between. 0.01% and 0.19%. Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR between 0.1% and 0.26%.*” burningmetal likes this.
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