Do you see a 2020 season happening?

TheOak · 04-09-2020, 06:00 AM

Originally Posted by hitta

It's pretty much factual. We don't have enough tests. We will never have enough tests because the reagents used in testing come from China. .

Incorrect, no country has a cornered market on reagent manufacturing. A reagent is simply a chemical compound used to detect a reaction. I have used reagents for 20+ years.

Qiagen - Germany (Not China)
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtec...uction-6-weeks

Your claims are refuted... All of them I would say.
https://www.chemistryworld.com/myste...011457.article

It is all for the best anyway isn't it? Chinese production Q/A desnt seem to be Sig Sigma does it...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21J51S

"Pretty much factual" and "factual" are no where near each other in your claims.

Stop scaring people.

hitta · 04-09-2020, 06:41 AM

Originally Posted by TheOak

Incorrect, no country has a cornered market on reagent manufacturing. A reagent is simply a chemical compound used to detect a reaction. I have used reagents for 20+ years.

Qiagen - Germany (Not China)
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtec...uction-6-weeks

Your claims are refuted... All of them I would say.
https://www.chemistryworld.com/myste...011457.article

It is all for the best anyway isn't it? Chinese production Q/A desnt seem to be Sig Sigma does it...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21J51S

"Pretty much factual" and "factual" are no where near each other in your claims.

Stop scaring people.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ortages-remain

Qiagen produces reagents which extract RNA. There are several different reagents that go into the testing process. One is for storing the RNA, which is also in shortage(that doesn't come out of China either). There are however a set of reagents that we have been getting solely from China. I'm not saying we'll never be able to ramp up testing, but in 4-5 weeks we are going to hit a wall. We can probably produce them locally, but it's going to take a while to get everything going. The reagents required to do PCR analysis are pretty extensive.

TheOak · 04-09-2020, 07:32 AM

Originally Posted by hitta

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ortages-remain

Qiagen produces reagents which extract RNA. There are several different reagents that go into the testing process. One is for storing the RNA, which is also in shortage(that doesn't come out of China either). There are however a set of reagents that we have been getting solely from China. I'm not saying we'll never be able to ramp up testing, but in 4-5 weeks we are going to hit a wall. We can probably produce them locally, but it's going to take a while to get everything going. The reagents required to do PCR analysis are pretty extensive.

What are the reagents specifically? Give them to me by chemical composition please.

This has nothing to do with supply or demand and everything to do with logistical failure.
In Delaware, Senator Chris Coons said Thursday that the state hospital and medical lab couldn’t process coronavirus tests because of a shortage of chemicals. So swabs were being sent to LabCore and Quest despite their backlogs of more than a week, Coons said.

The state had ordered $300,000 worth of the chemicals, but after a month waiting on backorder, the supplies were further held up by a miscommunication between the Food and Drug Administration and shipper DHL, Coons said.

"The shipment still hasn't moved," Coons said on Thursday, pulling up the order's tracking number. "It's been sitting in a warehouse for an entire week. We just want the chance to use the state of their state-of-the-art machinery."

Lets be clear here. There is no cure so tested or not tested doesn't change anything if people are not spreading it correct?

If you feel like you have symptoms go rest, if you test positive you are going rest. No?

hitta · 04-09-2020, 02:53 PM

Originally Posted by TheOak

What are the reagents specifically? Give them to me by chemical composition please.

This has nothing to do with supply or demand and everything to do with logistical failure.
In Delaware, Senator Chris Coons said Thursday that the state hospital and medical lab couldn’t process coronavirus tests because of a shortage of chemicals. So swabs were being sent to LabCore and Quest despite their backlogs of more than a week, Coons said.

The state had ordered $300,000 worth of the chemicals, but after a month waiting on backorder, the supplies were further held up by a miscommunication between the Food and Drug Administration and shipper DHL, Coons said.

"The shipment still hasn't moved," Coons said on Thursday, pulling up the order's tracking number. "It's been sitting in a warehouse for an entire week. We just want the chance to use the state of their state-of-the-art machinery."

Lets be clear here. There is no cure so tested or not tested doesn't change anything if people are not spreading it correct?

If you feel like you have symptoms go rest, if you test positive you are going rest. No?

This entire argument I've been having is getting an accurate estimate of the death rate. Testing at this point is useless for actually stopping the spread, unless we get to a point where we are trying to suppress incoming cases(which I think is a futile effort anyways).Some of the countries with the most strictest lockdowns in place are still getting imported cases. A lot of the times when people first get infected, their viral load in their nasal/throat is too low to be picked up by the swabs anyways. The only thing I've been arguing in this thread is that number that they keep throwing around from the cebm that the IFR is 0.2%(which somehow conveniently raises the denominator through increasing the R0 but doesn't look at the numerator at all). This R0 is very suspect requiring a doubling rate of 1.8 days. I'd even take some issue with the 0.66% number they calculated from China. They've freely admitted that a large number of the people that died were not included in their stats because they never made it to the hospital and were never tested. I have no clue what the right number is but I think it's between 0.7-1.3 percent. This thread is becoming tedious, and I'm not doing it anymore. We're just going in circles.

04-09-2020, 06:00 AM	#1
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,051	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta It's pretty much factual. We don't have enough tests. We will never have enough tests because the reagents used in testing come from China. . Incorrect, no country has a cornered market on reagent manufacturing. A reagent is simply a chemical compound used to detect a reaction. I have used reagents for 20+ years. Qiagen - Germany (Not China) https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtec...uction-6-weeks Your claims are refuted... All of them I would say. https://www.chemistryworld.com/myste...011457.article It is all for the best anyway isn't it? Chinese production Q/A desnt seem to be Sig Sigma does it... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21J51S "Pretty much factual" and "factual" are no where near each other in your claims. Stop scaring people.
	It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau

04-09-2020, 06:41 AM	#2
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by TheOak Incorrect, no country has a cornered market on reagent manufacturing. A reagent is simply a chemical compound used to detect a reaction. I have used reagents for 20+ years. Qiagen - Germany (Not China) https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtec...uction-6-weeks Your claims are refuted... All of them I would say. https://www.chemistryworld.com/myste...011457.article It is all for the best anyway isn't it? Chinese production Q/A desnt seem to be Sig Sigma does it... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21J51S "Pretty much factual" and "factual" are no where near each other in your claims. Stop scaring people. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ortages-remain Qiagen produces reagents which extract RNA. There are several different reagents that go into the testing process. One is for storing the RNA, which is also in shortage(that doesn't come out of China either). There are however a set of reagents that we have been getting solely from China. I'm not saying we'll never be able to ramp up testing, but in 4-5 weeks we are going to hit a wall. We can probably produce them locally, but it's going to take a while to get everything going. The reagents required to do PCR analysis are pretty extensive.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342

04-09-2020, 07:32 AM	#3
TheOak 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Cypress Tx. Posts: 19,051	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ortages-remain Qiagen produces reagents which extract RNA. There are several different reagents that go into the testing process. One is for storing the RNA, which is also in shortage(that doesn't come out of China either). There are however a set of reagents that we have been getting solely from China. I'm not saying we'll never be able to ramp up testing, but in 4-5 weeks we are going to hit a wall. We can probably produce them locally, but it's going to take a while to get everything going. The reagents required to do PCR analysis are pretty extensive. What are the reagents specifically? Give them to me by chemical composition please. This has nothing to do with supply or demand and everything to do with logistical failure. In Delaware, Senator Chris Coons said Thursday that the state hospital and medical lab couldn’t process coronavirus tests because of a shortage of chemicals. So swabs were being sent to LabCore and Quest despite their backlogs of more than a week, Coons said. The state had ordered $300,000 worth of the chemicals, but after a month waiting on backorder, the supplies were further held up by a miscommunication between the Food and Drug Administration and shipper DHL, Coons said. "The shipment still hasn't moved," Coons said on Thursday, pulling up the order's tracking number. "It's been sitting in a warehouse for an entire week. We just want the chance to use the state of their state-of-the-art machinery." Lets be clear here. There is no cure so tested or not tested doesn't change anything if people are not spreading it correct? If you feel like you have symptoms go rest, if you test positive you are going rest. No?
	It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. ~ Henry David Thoreau

04-09-2020, 02:53 PM	#4
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by TheOak What are the reagents specifically? Give them to me by chemical composition please. This has nothing to do with supply or demand and everything to do with logistical failure. In Delaware, Senator Chris Coons said Thursday that the state hospital and medical lab couldn’t process coronavirus tests because of a shortage of chemicals. So swabs were being sent to LabCore and Quest despite their backlogs of more than a week, Coons said. The state had ordered $300,000 worth of the chemicals, but after a month waiting on backorder, the supplies were further held up by a miscommunication between the Food and Drug Administration and shipper DHL, Coons said. "The shipment still hasn't moved," Coons said on Thursday, pulling up the order's tracking number. "It's been sitting in a warehouse for an entire week. We just want the chance to use the state of their state-of-the-art machinery." Lets be clear here. There is no cure so tested or not tested doesn't change anything if people are not spreading it correct? If you feel like you have symptoms go rest, if you test positive you are going rest. No? This entire argument I've been having is getting an accurate estimate of the death rate. Testing at this point is useless for actually stopping the spread, unless we get to a point where we are trying to suppress incoming cases(which I think is a futile effort anyways).Some of the countries with the most strictest lockdowns in place are still getting imported cases. A lot of the times when people first get infected, their viral load in their nasal/throat is too low to be picked up by the swabs anyways. The only thing I've been arguing in this thread is that number that they keep throwing around from the cebm that the IFR is 0.2%(which somehow conveniently raises the denominator through increasing the R0 but doesn't look at the numerator at all). This R0 is very suspect requiring a doubling rate of 1.8 days. I'd even take some issue with the 0.66% number they calculated from China. They've freely admitted that a large number of the people that died were not included in their stats because they never made it to the hospital and were never tested. I have no clue what the right number is but I think it's between 0.7-1.3 percent. This thread is becoming tedious, and I'm not doing it anymore. We're just going in circles.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,342