Week Eight QB Debate

rezburna · 10-26-2022, 03:56 PM

Originally Posted by leilung

Our QB’s by the Numbers...

Given that we ALL have our biases based on history, experiences, and what we see, we’ve all drawn our own conclusions as to who we think should be starting QB going forward. I spent a few hours and did a dive into the numbers based on what we have so far in Hill, Dalton, and Winston and was kind of surprised at some of the stats. Before anyone proceeds to tell me that ‘stats don’t tell the whole story’ (and I know it’s coming) understand that stats are just numbers and CAN be manipulated to show a biased outcome. I am merely throwing this out as food for thought.

If you doubt anything I’m posting, feel free to do your own due diligence and counter my findings.

Here we go…

Dalton
4 Games| W-L: 1-3|Avg. Pass Yds: 236| Comp: 63%|Pass TD: 7|Avg. Rush Yds: 7| Rush TD: 0| INT: 4|FL: 1| Avg. QB Rating: 90.5

Hill
9 Games| W-L: 7-2| Avg. Pass Yds. 195| Comp: 69%|Pass TD: 8|Avg. Rush Yds: 46| Rush TD: 4| INT: 7|FL: 1| Avg. QB Rating: 90.8

Winston
10 Games| W-L: 6-4| Avg. Pass Yds. 202| Comp: 61%|Pass TD: 18|Avg. Rush Yds: 24| Rush TD: 1| INT: 8|FL: 1| Avg. QB Rating: 89.7

Things I was surprised by
- Dalton > than Winston in avg. passing yardage /game.
- Hill > Dalton and Winston by a hair in QB Rating when I thought he would be lowest of the 3.
- Winston eclipses Hill and Dalton in passing TD’s by a mile. He also demonstrated the ability to put up strong numbers in spite of passing to mediocre WR’s (Smith, Callaway, Stills, Harty) in 2021 before his season ending injury. (Was this SP’s play calling/ coaching, was something finally clicking with his knowledge of the system, did holding a clipboard for Drew actually rub off or was it some combination of all of it?)
- Win/Loss seems to be something a lot of Hill backers are citing, but to be honest, those stats can be altered by quality of Defense/ Special Teams play which has NOTHING to do with the QB. (Think about Trent Dilfer in the Ravens SB run and you understand that.
So statistically speaking, (given some variables of injuries all around) no one QB really stands out and all 3 are pretty much in a dead heat. It all comes down to the coaches and who they think has best command of the offense I guess.

So now that the discussion is as clear as mud, has anyone changed their mind?

You go with the youngest one and the one with the most natural are talent. Like I said before, Dalton’s career is over. And if you look at the history of his career he throws a lot of interceptions himself. Last week wasn’t a one off. I expect to see more of that the longer the leash gets.

leilung · 10-26-2022, 04:41 PM

Originally Posted by rezburna

You go with the youngest one and the one with the most natural are talent. Like I said before, Dalton’s career is over. And if you look at the history of his career he throws a lot of interceptions himself. Last week wasn’t a one off. I expect to see more of that the longer the leash gets.

This week will tell the tale.

AsylumGuido · 10-26-2022, 04:42 PM

subguy · 10-27-2022, 06:31 AM

I am glad they have finally decided, at least for this week. We can move on and create a gameplan that will work. Points have not been the biggest issue with Dalton at QB, even without starting receivers. Maybe one day, we can see how well he will do with a starting crew. We all know neither QB is the answer. It was Jameis Winston's job to lose and for now, he did just that.

The D has been the most egregious problem this year. Logic would say that by now they would be syncing, far from the case. The talent is there but the results aren't.

K Major · 10-27-2022, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by subguy

The D has been the most egregious problem this year. Logic would say that by now they would be syncing, far from the case. The talent is there but the results aren't.

The tackling has been atrocious over the last few weeks & we are currently #32nd in takeaways.

Penalties & giveaways (int/fumbles) have been equally bad. The Saints are 2-5 for a reason.

No energy & swag (Ceedy) is missing on defense for sure.

Source - > https://www.footballdb.com/stats/turnovers.html

saintsfan1976 · 10-27-2022, 09:42 AM

Originally Posted by K Major

The tackling has been atrocious over the last few weeks & we are currently #32nd in takeaways.

Penalties & giveaways (int/fumbles) have been equally bad. The Saints are 2-5 for a reason.

No energy & swag (Ceedy) is missing on defense for sure.

Source - > https://www.footballdb.com/stats/turnovers.html

Poor players in place of starters playing poorly. Real issue.

AsylumGuido · 10-27-2022, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by saintsfan1976

Poor players in place of starters playing poorly. Real issue.

In other words ... injuries.

mapcow · 10-27-2022, 10:24 AM

Put Michael Thomas....the prima donna in as QB

K Major · 10-27-2022, 11:10 AM

Originally Posted by mapcow

Put Michael Thomas....the prima donna in as QB

No one outside of the facility knows the real severity of his injury but turf toe can sideline most athletes for MONTHS if not the season.

A good friend of ours (played at Georgia & later with the Giants) was telling us some horror stories about his TT. So many ligaments involved, so many moving parts, then boom it rears it's ugly head again.

I'd be shocked to see Michael on the field anytime soon in 2022.

AsylumGuido · 10-27-2022, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by K Major

No one outside of the facility knows the real severity of his injury but turf toe can sideline most athletes for MONTHS if not the season.

A good friend of ours (played at Georgia & later with the Giants) was telling us some horror stories about his TT. So many ligaments involved, so many moving parts, then boom it rears it's ugly head again.

I'd be shocked to see Michael on the field anytime soon in 2022.

There are three grades of turf toe injury. Grade one has a short 2-3 week turnaround. Grade two is 4-6 weeks. Neither of these require surgery. Grade three requires surgery and is the one that can end a season unless is occurs early. The latter is what Penning had and he's supposed getting close to being able to begin practice.

If Thomas had anything more severe than grade two he would have been placed on IR. I'd be shocked if he doesn't return within the next couple of weeks.

Dunnells is saying that he thinks Thomas may even return to practice this week. We'll see. It is still well within the timeframe for recovery.

Rugby Saint II likes this.

10-26-2022, 03:56 PM	#1
rezburna 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Kenner, LA Posts: 8,020	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Originally Posted by leilung Our QB’s by the Numbers... Given that we ALL have our biases based on history, experiences, and what we see, we’ve all drawn our own conclusions as to who we think should be starting QB going forward. I spent a few hours and did a dive into the numbers based on what we have so far in Hill, Dalton, and Winston and was kind of surprised at some of the stats. Before anyone proceeds to tell me that ‘stats don’t tell the whole story’ (and I know it’s coming) understand that stats are just numbers and CAN be manipulated to show a biased outcome. I am merely throwing this out as food for thought. If you doubt anything I’m posting, feel free to do your own due diligence and counter my findings. Here we go… Dalton 4 Games\| W-L: 1-3\|Avg. Pass Yds: 236\| Comp: 63%\|Pass TD: 7\|Avg. Rush Yds: 7\| Rush TD: 0\| INT: 4\|FL: 1\| Avg. QB Rating: 90.5 Hill 9 Games\| W-L: 7-2\| Avg. Pass Yds. 195\| Comp: 69%\|Pass TD: 8\|Avg. Rush Yds: 46\| Rush TD: 4\| INT: 7\|FL: 1\| Avg. QB Rating: 90.8 Winston 10 Games\| W-L: 6-4\| Avg. Pass Yds. 202\| Comp: 61%\|Pass TD: 18\|Avg. Rush Yds: 24\| Rush TD: 1\| INT: 8\|FL: 1\| Avg. QB Rating: 89.7 Things I was surprised by - Dalton > than Winston in avg. passing yardage /game. - Hill > Dalton and Winston by a hair in QB Rating when I thought he would be lowest of the 3. - Winston eclipses Hill and Dalton in passing TD’s by a mile. He also demonstrated the ability to put up strong numbers in spite of passing to mediocre WR’s (Smith, Callaway, Stills, Harty) in 2021 before his season ending injury. (Was this SP’s play calling/ coaching, was something finally clicking with his knowledge of the system, did holding a clipboard for Drew actually rub off or was it some combination of all of it?) - Win/Loss seems to be something a lot of Hill backers are citing, but to be honest, those stats can be altered by quality of Defense/ Special Teams play which has NOTHING to do with the QB. (Think about Trent Dilfer in the Ravens SB run and you understand that. So statistically speaking, (given some variables of injuries all around) no one QB really stands out and all 3 are pretty much in a dead heat. It all comes down to the coaches and who they think has best command of the offense I guess. So now that the discussion is as clear as mud, has anyone changed their mind? You go with the youngest one and the one with the most natural are talent. Like I said before, Dalton’s career is over. And if you look at the history of his career he throws a lot of interceptions himself. Last week wasn’t a one off. I expect to see more of that the longer the leash gets. leilung likes this.

10-26-2022, 04:41 PM	#2
leilung Booty Bandit Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: The Wastelands that are NJ Posts: 1,421	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Originally Posted by rezburna You go with the youngest one and the one with the most natural are talent. Like I said before, Dalton’s career is over. And if you look at the history of his career he throws a lot of interceptions himself. Last week wasn’t a one off. I expect to see more of that the longer the leash gets. This week will tell the tale.

10-27-2022, 06:31 AM	#4
subguy 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: FL Posts: 2,099	Re: Week Eight QB Debate I am glad they have finally decided, at least for this week. We can move on and create a gameplan that will work. Points have not been the biggest issue with Dalton at QB, even without starting receivers. Maybe one day, we can see how well he will do with a starting crew. We all know neither QB is the answer. It was Jameis Winston's job to lose and for now, he did just that. The D has been the most egregious problem this year. Logic would say that by now they would be syncing, far from the case. The talent is there but the results aren't. iceshack149, Crusader, Rugby Saint II and 1 others like this.
	Don't want em to get your goat don't show em where it's hid.

10-27-2022, 08:56 AM	#5
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,797 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Originally Posted by subguy The D has been the most egregious problem this year. Logic would say that by now they would be syncing, far from the case. The talent is there but the results aren't. The tackling has been atrocious over the last few weeks & we are currently #32nd in takeaways. Penalties & giveaways (int/fumbles) have been equally bad. The Saints are 2-5 for a reason. No energy & swag (Ceedy) is missing on defense for sure. Source - > https://www.footballdb.com/stats/turnovers.html subguy, saintsfan1976, SmashMouth and 1 others like this.

10-27-2022, 09:42 AM	#6
saintsfan1976 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Atlanta Posts: 10,995 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Originally Posted by K Major The tackling has been atrocious over the last few weeks & we are currently #32nd in takeaways. Penalties & giveaways (int/fumbles) have been equally bad. The Saints are 2-5 for a reason. No energy & swag (Ceedy) is missing on defense for sure. Source - > https://www.footballdb.com/stats/turnovers.html Poor players in place of starters playing poorly. Real issue. leilung, AsylumGuido, Rugby Saint II and 2 others like this.

10-26-2022, 04:42 PM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,574	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Twitter

10-27-2022, 10:31 AM	#7
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,574	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Originally Posted by saintsfan1976 Poor players in place of starters playing poorly. Real issue. In other words ... injuries.

10-27-2022, 10:24 AM	#8
mapcow Just a Fan Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,818	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Put Michael Thomas....the prima donna in as QB K Major likes this.
mapcow Just a Fan Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,818

10-27-2022, 11:10 AM	#9
K Major Site Donor 2019 Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Bedford, TX Posts: 24,797 Blog Entries: 3	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Originally Posted by mapcow Put Michael Thomas....the prima donna in as QB No one outside of the facility knows the real severity of his injury but turf toe can sideline most athletes for MONTHS if not the season. A good friend of ours (played at Georgia & later with the Giants) was telling us some horror stories about his TT. So many ligaments involved, so many moving parts, then boom it rears it's ugly head again. I'd be shocked to see Michael on the field anytime soon in 2022. Crusader and shawnkytonk like this.

10-27-2022, 11:18 AM	#10
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,574	Re: Week Eight QB Debate Originally Posted by K Major No one outside of the facility knows the real severity of his injury but turf toe can sideline most athletes for MONTHS if not the season. A good friend of ours (played at Georgia & later with the Giants) was telling us some horror stories about his TT. So many ligaments involved, so many moving parts, then boom it rears it's ugly head again. I'd be shocked to see Michael on the field anytime soon in 2022. There are three grades of turf toe injury. Grade one has a short 2-3 week turnaround. Grade two is 4-6 weeks. Neither of these require surgery. Grade three requires surgery and is the one that can end a season unless is occurs early. The latter is what Penning had and he's supposed getting close to being able to begin practice. If Thomas had anything more severe than grade two he would have been placed on IR. I'd be shocked if he doesn't return within the next couple of weeks. Twitter Dunnells is saying that he thinks Thomas may even return to practice this week. We'll see. It is still well within the timeframe for recovery. Rugby Saint II likes this.
	“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” — Winston Churchill