hitta

Ferguson, Osterholm, and Lipsitch(one of the guys that worked on that model the US keeps showing)... three of the world's best epidemiologists are all echoing the same exact thing. If we kept containment for 12-15 months, that 90k may be a reality. Then you have to worry about survival, food chains, chemical reagents for testing(which come from China by the way), supply chains, schools, the economy, etc. The moment we go back to the way things were, it will run through the US like lightning. They thought they had the Spanish flu contained too, and then it came back.

hitta

Also I want to point out that a big portion of the deaths that are caused by coronavirus aren't being considered coronavirus deaths. They list the cause of death as heart attack, pneumonia , or whatever and the person is never actually tested for the virus.

burningmetal

Yet another lie. You are showing this forum that you haven't actually researched anything in the last month.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...matic-n2566543 "During the White House Wuhan coronavirus task force briefing Tuesday evening, Dr. Deborah Birx said the United States has taken a "liberal approach" in the way doctors classify deaths from the virus.

"The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we're counting that as a COVID-19 death," Birx said. "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."


You have it exactly backwards, and you thought no one would notice? Stop guessing. Stop spreading misinformation. Just stop.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard that, the NFL would fine and suspend me.

hitta

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/scores...d-by-the-city/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...a6d_story.html

TheOak

I see "probable"and "almost certainly" in the headlines. .. there is nothing confirmed in any of those articles. Pure conjecture and speculation.

As discussed in another thread, right now there is nothing else to talk about. That means that thousands of news papers and columnists are competing for your attention with the same story... Expect some dramatic and evasive word play.

hitta

It's pretty much factual. We don't have enough tests. We will never have enough tests because the reagents used in testing come from China. They aren't going to waste tests on people that have already died. In about 4-5 weeks we will pretty much start to run out of our testing capacity. There's no way that a significant portion of people aren't being left out of the the death toll. The same thing happened in China. China will freely admit that they have no idea what their actual death toll was because many of the people that died during the period were never tested. That's one of the reasons their IFR is 0.66%(which is actually used in the CEBM statistical data). Anytime you are calculating a fraction less than 1 the numerator(total number of deaths) is always going to be more sensitive than the denominator (total number of cases). 1/100 v.s. 2/100 is very different than 1/100 v.s 1/101. This is how IFR gets skewed. That's the point I'm trying to push across. If you actually read the article you'd know that epidemiologists are the ones saying this and not the Washington Post.

I'm tired of this thread though, I've been in the field a long time. I know what I'm talking about. I'm not discussing this anymore. I'll come back when what I said is proven to be true. I will just leave you with this, some of you are greatly underestimating what is occurring. We are about to have to make choices between our food and economy and people getting infected. Anyways kudos.

TheOak

Incorrect, no country has a cornered market on reagent manufacturing. A reagent is simply a chemical compound used to detect a reaction. I have used reagents for 20+ years.


Qiagen - Germany (Not China)
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtec...uction-6-weeks

Your claims are refuted... All of them I would say.
https://www.chemistryworld.com/myste...011457.article

It is all for the best anyway isn't it? Chinese production Q/A desnt seem to be Sig Sigma does it...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21J51S

"Pretty much factual" and "factual" are no where near each other in your claims.

Stop scaring people.

hitta

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ortages-remain

Qiagen produces reagents which extract RNA. There are several different reagents that go into the testing process. One is for storing the RNA, which is also in shortage(that doesn't come out of China either). There are however a set of reagents that we have been getting solely from China. I'm not saying we'll never be able to ramp up testing, but in 4-5 weeks we are going to hit a wall. We can probably produce them locally, but it's going to take a while to get everything going. The reagents required to do PCR analysis are pretty extensive.

hitta

Listen to this interview, it will destroy your IFR argument. The deaths that are missed are so much more important than the cases that are missed because the numerator is more sensitive than the denominator.

Rugby Saint II

Ya'll have been having a spirited debate and I see things more clearly now. However, I live on the Gulf Coast and if they reopen the beaches then we will be at high risk again. On the other hand you have to keep the supplies coming before the economy totally collapses. To reopen the economy we need to follow the science not your heart or bill fold in this matter. Interesting stuff to think about while I'm stuck at home.