Do you see a 2020 season happening?

blackangold · 04-07-2020, 05:06 PM

Originally Posted by hitta

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane.

Great, thank you.

So, a few problems I find in your article.

First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested).

Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable.

Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020.

There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

04-07-2020, 05:06 PM	#10
blackangold 1000 Posts + Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,422	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by hitta https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf Like I said though, models are always flawed. You'd have to be a fool to believe that only 200k would die though like Trump and his doctors are saying. The lowest I can imagine is 800k, and that's being very conservative. Most epidemiologists thinks the 200k number sounds insane. Great, thank you. So, a few problems I find in your article. First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested). Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable. Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020. There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020... https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/
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