Do you see a 2020 season happening?

hitta · 04-07-2020, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by blackangold

Great, thank you.

So, a few problems I find in your article.

First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested).

Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable.

Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020.

There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020...
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/

The thing is I don't care. You can pick whatever model you want. If 10 million people got infected in the next 24 months,about 100K would die. That's only 3.125% of the population. Do you think only 3.125% or 6.25% is going to stop an infected person from spreading the virus. The only reason the numbers are going down is people are staying indoors. What happens when they come out and you have asymptomatic carriers showing up. It's common sense what's going to happen.

04-07-2020, 05:28 PM	#11
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,339	Re: Do you see a 2020 season happening? Originally Posted by blackangold Great, thank you. So, a few problems I find in your article. First, the sourced IFR doesn't have much background into their study numbers to determine IFR (CFR is easy to understand because they are cases you see, IFR includes those that never get tested). Second, all of the information sourced comes from China which is not reliable. Lastly, the information in the article is from 3/13/2020. There is much more relevant information to use now, sourced from multiple countries. Better yet it's updated as of 4/07/2020... https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/ The thing is I don't care. You can pick whatever model you want. If 10 million people got infected in the next 24 months,about 100K would die. That's only 3.125% of the population. Do you think only 3.125% or 6.25% is going to stop an infected person from spreading the virus. The only reason the numbers are going down is people are staying indoors. What happens when they come out and you have asymptomatic carriers showing up. It's common sense what's going to happen.
hitta 1000 Posts + Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,339