Official 2024 Free Agency Discussion

AsylumGuido · 03-04-2024, 10:53 AM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

His contract is not the worst part. Its the team that gave him the contract, what his contract means for us, with our cap situation. If any other team had given him the contract they could pull the rip cord and escape it before paying him $40 million 2025 or $50 million in 2026. The $50 million in 2026 was even discussed as not being real, effectively a void year, looking at the modest cost to bail on the deal at that point, which would be leverage to renegotiate at a more reasonable number if it was working out. But with the way the Saints manage the salary cap starting every year $100 million over the cap and restructuring every deal, we can't afford the dead cap that comes with pulling the rip cord on a deal this big, because that modest sum to get out of the deal if needed increases with every restructure. For any other team, Carr's contract would be a roll of the dice that is done in 2 years if it fails. For the Saints, its ride or die for the long term on Carr being elite, and that is what makes it a disaster. DeShaun Watson's deal is fully guaranteed, making it a disaster. The truth is that Derek Carr's deal is really fully guaranteed too, not because the language of the contract prevents Carr from ever being cut, but because the the state of the Saints salary cap and the way they manage it prevents him from ever being cut. But at least Watson's contract expires and the Browns will not be inquiring about an extension. With Carr, an extension in 2027 is highly probable to avoid what will be a $60 million or so dead cap hit at the time if he is not extended just after restructuring his 2025 $50 million salary to kick the can on another $40 million of it.

Whatever ...

Rugby Saint II · 03-05-2024, 02:33 PM

We're gearing up for free agency and I've got my fingers crossed for another O line and possession Wide receiver.

AsylumGuido · 03-05-2024, 03:02 PM

Speaking of negativity ... I definitely see Carr as better than Russell Wilson, as well.

AsylumGuido · 03-05-2024, 04:49 PM

BakoSaint · 03-05-2024, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Speaking of negativity ... I definitely see Carr as better than Russell Wilson, as well.

https://twitter.com/RosvoglouReport/...99349598425482

If the options are:

A. Derek Carr

B. Russell Wilson

C. DeShaun Watson

Then much like Hepatitis, I would rather have A than B or C.

But to use this analogy I had to look up which Hepatitis is the least bad, and I would really rather have none of the above.

Unfortunately while Hepatitis A is the most transmissible according to my google search, Carr's contract makes him untradable unless we kick in a 1st round pick.

It is what it is with Carr. His contract is guaranteed so we have to see what we have. But I am not impressed with a season where he boosted his numbers against weak competition and the best opposing QBs he could beat were Mayfield, Tannehill, Minshew, and Young. But I think we need to approach the 2025 salary cap with the goal of having an offramp after Year 2 of the contract, just like the Broncos did with Wilson, and like the Browns wish they could with Watson.

I hope the Falcons end up with Russ Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, or perhaps Baker Mayfield, ie someone I dont think has much upside. But I don't think Carr has much upside either, I think he is what he is, I hope he proves me wrong but I am not will to go 'all in' to bet on him, I want the option of an offramp.

AsylumGuido · 03-05-2024, 05:02 PM

Originally Posted by BakoSaint

If the options are:

A. Derek Carr

B. Russell Wilson

C. DeShaun Watson

Then much like Hepatitis, I would rather have A than B or C.

But to use this analogy I had to look up which Hepatitis is the least bad, and I would really rather have none of the above.

Unfortunately while Hepatitis A is the most transmissible according to my google search, Carr's contract makes him untradable unless we kick in a 1st round pick.

It is what it is with Carr. His contract is guaranteed so we have to see what we have. But I am not impressed with a season where he boosted his numbers against weak competition and the best opposing QBs he could beat were Mayfield, Tannehill, Minshew, and Young. But I think we need to approach the 2025 salary cap with the goal of having an offramp after Year 2 of the contract, just like the Broncos did with Wilson, and like the Browns wish they could with Watson.

Carr was never signed as a stop gap. He was signed as our QB for the foreseeable future. Why is there even a consideration of a trade? Thank God you aren't anywhere close to making our decisions.

rezburna · 03-05-2024, 09:41 PM

Originally Posted by AsylumGuido

Speaking of negativity ... I definitely see Carr as better than Russell Wilson, as well.

https://twitter.com/RosvoglouReport/...99349598425482

I don’t agree with Carr being better. If anything they’re even, but Russ has better mobility and graded out better than Carr last year.

BakoSaint · 03-05-2024, 10:32 PM

Originally Posted by rezburna

I don’t agree with Carr being better. If anything they’re even, but Russ has better mobility and graded out better than Carr last year.

Per PFF:

Derek Carr
2023: 77.2
2022:66.6
Average 22-23: 71.9

Russell Wilson
2023: 77.5
2022: 66.2
Average 22-23: 71.85

So over the past two years on average Carr has been 0.07% better.

AsylumGuido · 03-06-2024, 07:23 AM

Originally Posted by rezburna

I don’t agree with Carr being better. If anything they’re even, but Russ has better mobility and graded out better than Carr last year.

Consider the play calling last year.

Carr had Carmichael. Russ had Payton.

I honestly think that Pete could make Tom Brady look more like Marsha Brady.

BakoSaint · 03-07-2024, 12:58 PM

I am not convinced that Pete Carmichael was the main problem at all. He was effective under Payton, but not under Allen. I think it was smart to make a change and I am guardedly optimistic for a degree of improvement but I am not sure it will solve all our problems. It could be that a lot of offensive coordinators are not effective under weak head coaches like Dennis Allen who fail to establish leadership and accountability from the start and weak general managers who put us in a position that we can't afford to cut dead weight without years of extensions to wind down their dead cap hits.

It's possible that Dennis Allen and Mickey Loomis without Sean Payton could make Tom Brady look like Marsha Brady.

Klink Kubiak could not save Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense under a weak head coach in Nathaniel Hackett in Denver in 2022. We was effective under stronger head coaches in SF and Minnesota with better QBs. Now he has to work with Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. After 2023, any change is better than none, but it just wouldn't be that surprising to me if Carr and the Saints offense struggle in 2024 exactly how they did in 2023.

03-04-2024, 10:53 AM	#1
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,543	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion Originally Posted by BakoSaint His contract is not the worst part. Its the team that gave him the contract, what his contract means for us, with our cap situation. If any other team had given him the contract they could pull the rip cord and escape it before paying him $40 million 2025 or $50 million in 2026. The $50 million in 2026 was even discussed as not being real, effectively a void year, looking at the modest cost to bail on the deal at that point, which would be leverage to renegotiate at a more reasonable number if it was working out. But with the way the Saints manage the salary cap starting every year $100 million over the cap and restructuring every deal, we can't afford the dead cap that comes with pulling the rip cord on a deal this big, because that modest sum to get out of the deal if needed increases with every restructure. For any other team, Carr's contract would be a roll of the dice that is done in 2 years if it fails. For the Saints, its ride or die for the long term on Carr being elite, and that is what makes it a disaster. DeShaun Watson's deal is fully guaranteed, making it a disaster. The truth is that Derek Carr's deal is really fully guaranteed too, not because the language of the contract prevents Carr from ever being cut, but because the the state of the Saints salary cap and the way they manage it prevents him from ever being cut. But at least Watson's contract expires and the Browns will not be inquiring about an extension. With Carr, an extension in 2027 is highly probable to avoid what will be a $60 million or so dead cap hit at the time if he is not extended just after restructuring his 2025 $50 million salary to kick the can on another $40 million of it. Whatever ...

03-05-2024, 02:33 PM	#2
Rugby Saint II Bounty Money $$$ Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: 5800 Airline Dr. Metairie, LA. Posts: 24,121	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion We're gearing up for free agency and I've got my fingers crossed for another O line and possession Wide receiver.

03-05-2024, 03:02 PM	#3
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,543	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion Speaking of negativity ... I definitely see Carr as better than Russell Wilson, as well. Twitter

03-05-2024, 04:49 PM	#4
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,543	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion Twitter

03-05-2024, 04:56 PM	#5
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Speaking of negativity ... I definitely see Carr as better than Russell Wilson, as well. https://twitter.com/RosvoglouReport/...99349598425482 If the options are: A. Derek Carr B. Russell Wilson C. DeShaun Watson Then much like Hepatitis, I would rather have A than B or C. But to use this analogy I had to look up which Hepatitis is the least bad, and I would really rather have none of the above. Unfortunately while Hepatitis A is the most transmissible according to my google search, Carr's contract makes him untradable unless we kick in a 1st round pick. It is what it is with Carr. His contract is guaranteed so we have to see what we have. But I am not impressed with a season where he boosted his numbers against weak competition and the best opposing QBs he could beat were Mayfield, Tannehill, Minshew, and Young. But I think we need to approach the 2025 salary cap with the goal of having an offramp after Year 2 of the contract, just like the Broncos did with Wilson, and like the Browns wish they could with Watson. I hope the Falcons end up with Russ Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, or perhaps Baker Mayfield, ie someone I dont think has much upside. But I don't think Carr has much upside either, I think he is what he is, I hope he proves me wrong but I am not will to go 'all in' to bet on him, I want the option of an offramp. SmashMouth and Sinner like this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328

03-05-2024, 05:02 PM	#6
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,543	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion Originally Posted by BakoSaint If the options are: A. Derek Carr B. Russell Wilson C. DeShaun Watson Then much like Hepatitis, I would rather have A than B or C. But to use this analogy I had to look up which Hepatitis is the least bad, and I would really rather have none of the above. Unfortunately while Hepatitis A is the most transmissible according to my google search, Carr's contract makes him untradable unless we kick in a 1st round pick. It is what it is with Carr. His contract is guaranteed so we have to see what we have. But I am not impressed with a season where he boosted his numbers against weak competition and the best opposing QBs he could beat were Mayfield, Tannehill, Minshew, and Young. But I think we need to approach the 2025 salary cap with the goal of having an offramp after Year 2 of the contract, just like the Broncos did with Wilson, and like the Browns wish they could with Watson. Carr was never signed as a stop gap. He was signed as our QB for the foreseeable future. Why is there even a consideration of a trade? Thank God you aren't anywhere close to making our decisions.

03-05-2024, 09:41 PM	#7
rezburna 5000 POSTS! + Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Kenner, LA Posts: 8,008	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion Originally Posted by AsylumGuido Speaking of negativity ... I definitely see Carr as better than Russell Wilson, as well. https://twitter.com/RosvoglouReport/...99349598425482 I don’t agree with Carr being better. If anything they’re even, but Russ has better mobility and graded out better than Carr last year. Sinner likes this.

03-05-2024, 10:32 PM	#8
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion Originally Posted by rezburna I don’t agree with Carr being better. If anything they’re even, but Russ has better mobility and graded out better than Carr last year. Per PFF: Derek Carr 2023: 77.2 2022:66.6 Average 22-23: 71.9 Russell Wilson 2023: 77.5 2022: 66.2 Average 22-23: 71.85 So over the past two years on average Carr has been 0.07% better. SmashMouth likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328

03-06-2024, 07:23 AM	#9
AsylumGuido 10000 POST CLUB Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Bossier City, LA Posts: 26,543	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion Originally Posted by rezburna I don’t agree with Carr being better. If anything they’re even, but Russ has better mobility and graded out better than Carr last year. Consider the play calling last year. Carr had Carmichael. Russ had Payton. I honestly think that Pete could make Tom Brady look more like Marsha Brady. Rugby Saint II, WW_Who_Dat and darksoul35 like this.

03-07-2024, 12:58 PM	#10
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328	Re: 2024 Saints Off-Season General News and Discussion I am not convinced that Pete Carmichael was the main problem at all. He was effective under Payton, but not under Allen. I think it was smart to make a change and I am guardedly optimistic for a degree of improvement but I am not sure it will solve all our problems. It could be that a lot of offensive coordinators are not effective under weak head coaches like Dennis Allen who fail to establish leadership and accountability from the start and weak general managers who put us in a position that we can't afford to cut dead weight without years of extensions to wind down their dead cap hits. It's possible that Dennis Allen and Mickey Loomis without Sean Payton could make Tom Brady look like Marsha Brady. Klink Kubiak could not save Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense under a weak head coach in Nathaniel Hackett in Denver in 2022. We was effective under stronger head coaches in SF and Minnesota with better QBs. Now he has to work with Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. After 2023, any change is better than none, but it just wouldn't be that surprising to me if Carr and the Saints offense struggle in 2024 exactly how they did in 2023. Sinner likes this.
BakoSaint 1000 Posts + Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 2,328